Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 27, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today with the Ibovespa testing record highs amid global rate-cut optimism.
However, political fissures are deepening as Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes upholds a 27-year sentence for former President Jair Bolsonaro on charges of plotting a coup.
This development is intensifying U.S. tensions under President Trump, with potential sanctions and tariffs on Brazilian exports that could dent revenues.
Adding to fiscal strains, the Senate retaliated against President Lula’s Supreme Court appointment by passing a costly early-retirement bill for health workers, estimated at R$40 billion ($7.5 billion) over a decade.
The measure undermines his spending discipline despite October’s primary surplus of R$36.5 billion ($7 billion)—a strong print on paper but pressured by rising pensions and court-mandated payments.
Moody’s holds Brazil’s Ba1 rating stable, one notch shy of investment grade, citing resilient exports but demanding Congress-backed reforms to tame automatic spending growth.
Meanwhile, manufacturing stagnates under 15% Selic rates and excess inventories, with capacity utilization below 80%, while November’s IPCA-15 preview rose 0.20% monthly to 4.50% yearly—inside the target band but with sticky core services above 6%.
All of this unfolds while Lula’s political capital erodes further amid Senate revenge tactics and democratic stress tests that risk unrest and higher borrowing costs, even as disinflation and Fed cut bets (~83% odds for December) draw inflows to high-yield assets like the BRL.
Today’s key domestic focus is the IGP-M Inflation Index (MoM) at 06:00 AM BRT (Cons: 0.28% Prev: -0.36%), a broad price gauge covering wholesale, consumer, and construction costs that could signal renewed inflationary pressures if it overshoots, potentially delaying Selic cuts into 2026 and weighing on DI futures; this matters as it tests the sustainability of recent disinflation gains amid fiscal leaks.
At 07:00 AM BRT, the BCB National Monetary Council Meeting will outline policy stance, with markets eyeing hints on rate path amid sticky core inflation—dovish tones could steepen the DI curve lower and lift cyclicals, while hawkish signals reinforce 15% Selic hold.
Key global prints, muted by the U.S. Thanksgiving closure, include the EUR GfK German Consumer Climate at 02:00 AM BRT (Act: -23.2, Cons: -23.6), a forward-looking sentiment indicator that could pressure EZ yields if softer than expected, weakening the euro and boosting LatAm carry trades.
Norway’s NOK Unemployment Rate at 02:00 AM BRT came in at 4.5% (Prev: 4.8%), a beat signaling labor resilience that tempers Norges Bank rate cuts and supports oil sentiment for Petrobras.
Japan’s CPI (YoY) at 06:30 PM BRT, core Tokyo CPI at 2.7% (Prev: 2.8%), and Industrial Production (MoM) at 06:50 PM BRT (Cons: -0.5%, Prev: 2.6%) showed on-target inflation, keeping the BoJ steady and capping yen strength and commodity bids, while softer output highlights Asia slowdown risks for Brazil’s exports.
These matter broadly because U.S. holiday thin liquidity amplifies spillover from ECB accounts at 07:30 AM BRT (policy nuances could signal divergence, sustaining global rate relief) and Asian data underscoring growth divergence that bolsters Brazil’s EM appeal amid FDI robustness, though fiscal probes like Senate spending revenge cap upside.
Economic Agenda for November 27, 2025
Brazil
- 06:00 AM BRT – IGP-M Inflation Index (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.28% Prev: -0.36%
- 07:00 AM BRT – BCB National Monetary Council Meeting
Implication: IGP-M overshoot risks hawkish BCB tilt, delaying cuts and pressuring Ibovespa; council cues gauge Selic path sustainability amid fiscal strains.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Oct) Cons: -0.450B Prev: -2.400B
- 07:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) Cons: Prev: -0.831B
Implication: Narrower deficit reinforces nearshoring narrative, firms peso if beats expectations; U.S. holiday spillover tests export resilience.
United States
- All Day – Holiday: Thanksgiving Day
Implication: Thin volumes heighten volatility; pre-holiday positioning locks Fed cut odds, aiding BRL inflows but capping LatAm moves.
Europe (selected key events)
- 02:00 AM BRT – GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec) Cons: -23.6 Prev: -24.1
- 04:00 AM BRT – Italian Business Confidence (Nov) Cons: 88.5 Prev: 88.4
- 04:00 AM BRT – Italian Consumer Confidence (Nov) Cons: 97.6 Prev: 97.6
- 05:45 AM BRT – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- 07:30 AM BRT – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Implication: Soft sentiment and dovish ECB accounts pressure EUR lower; sustains LatAm risk-on via global easing.
Japan (selected key events)
- 06:30 PM BRT – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 2.7% Prev: 2.8%
- 06:30 PM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Oct) Cons: 2.5% Prev: 2.6%
- 06:50 PM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: -0.5% Prev: 2.6%
Implication: Cooling data caps yen rally and commodity upside; indirect drag on Brazil exports.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s IGP-M and BCB meeting mute fiscal risks from Senate spending and Bolsonaro unrest, drawing carry trades; U.S. holiday thins flows but ECB/Asian cues highlight EZ slowdown vs. resilient labor/oil, bolstering Brazil’s relative EM appeal amid Moody’s reform calls and FDI inflows for Ibovespa push above 158k.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa surged 1.70% to close at 158,554.94 points on Wednesday, November 26, hitting an intraday high of 158,713.52 as global Fed cut bets (~83% December odds) and a sliding dollar outweighed fiscal noise from Lula’s income-tax reform signing—exempting up to R$5,000 monthly with progressive brackets—and IPCA-15 at 4.50% yearly inside target.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets rose for a fourth straight day on Wednesday, November 26, with S&P 500 +0.7% to 6,812.61, Dow +0.7% to 47,427.12, Nasdaq +0.8% to 23,214.69, and Russell 2000 +0.8% on December Fed cut confidence (~83%). Markets close today for Thanksgiving.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso firmed and the S&P/BMV IPC edged higher, pausing just below record highs amid Fed cut spillover and nearshoring optimism.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
The Argentine peso held calm while banks drove the Merval higher in a tamed blue-chip session.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso and stocks soared, putting market faith in fiscal discipline to the test.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chilean peso surged and IPSA hit record territory as markets bet on post-election stability.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real strengthened to near R$5.33 vs. USD as DXY slipped on Fed cut odds, favoring high-yield EM assets; technical support at 5.30 with high Selic carry continuing to attract flows.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets roared back on short squeeze and Fed pivot hopes, with Bitcoin reclaiming $91,000 and altcoins posting strong gains.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s factories remain stuck: high Selic rates (15%), full warehouses, and weak demand keep industrial capacity utilization below 80% despite disinflation.
Key Developments
October primary surplus of R$36.5 billion shows fiscal discipline on paper, but rising mandatory spending (pensions, court payments) mounts pressure on 2025 targets.
Moody’s keeps Brazil one step from investment grade (Ba1 stable) but demands serious fiscal reforms to curb automatic spending growth.
November IPCA-15 returns to target band (4.50% YoY) but sticky core services signal caution for Selic path.
Moraes’ hard-line conviction of Bolsonaro deepens Brazil’s democratic stress test and risks U.S. retaliation.
Senate approves costly health-pension bill as revenge on Lula, adding R$40 billion fiscal hole over a decade.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.62%
176,444.54
-0.62%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,924.91
-0.77%
3,340,763
-1.15%
2,298.59
+0.07%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.60% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.70% | -8.52% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.15% | -11.26% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.26 | +6.58% | +46.34% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 45,941 |
| WTI | 91.76 | +5.68% | +40.63% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 361,685 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,046 | -2.43% | +19.21% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 149,977 |
| SILVER | 57.73 | -3.81% | +46.98% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 33,113 |
| LITHIUM | 68.73 | -0.39% | +58.11% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 106,441 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.21 | +1.48% | +35.07% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 17,487,200 |
| VALE3 | 75.70 | +0.80% | +31.73% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 12,946,300 |
| SUZB3 | 42.43 | -0.54% | -18.01% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,695,600 |
| KLABIN | 17.68 | -1.39% | -4.46% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 3,142,000 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | -1.50% | -14.25% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.72 | 1,719,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.87 | -1.61% | +16.78% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 12,442,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.40 | -1.17% | +23.49% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 16,971,500 |
| BBDC4 | 18.77 | -1.05% | +18.20% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 12,996,900 |
| BBAS3 | 20.94 | -0.71% | +3.61% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 15,679,500 |
| B3SA3 | 15.64 | -1.64% | +16.80% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 27,887,800 |
| WEGE3 | 45.16 | -3.38% | +18.76% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,413,800 |
| PRIO3 | 61.14 | +2.29% | +43.96% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,547,300 |
| RENT3 | 36.99 | -0.40% | +2.07% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,527,200 |
| AZZA3 | 17.06 | -4.21% | -53.91% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.05 | 1,860,400 |
| CSNA3 | 5.35 | -0.56% | -39.00% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 10,115,600 |
| GGBR4 | 24.24 | +0.75% | +40.71% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,595,100 |
| ENEV3 | 25.65 | -1.23% | +83.35% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,058,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.33 | -1.55% | -24.33% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,126,400 |