Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 20, 2025
Brazil’s markets are closed today for Black Awareness Day, giving traders a forced pause after three straight losing sessions that left the Ibovespa at 155,380 points and the dollar near R$5.34.
The Banco Master liquidation shock and Fed minutes that cooled December-cut hopes dominated sentiment yesterday. However, longer-term positives are stacking up.
Brazil continues to lead the BRICS in foreign direct investment, with a US$1.14 trillion stock equivalent to 46.6% of GDP. The steel industry is successfully pivoting to exports.
Renault and Geely have committed R$3.8 billion to electrified-vehicle production in Paraná. Meanwhile, Mexico’s Asur is acquiring Motiva’s 20-airport portfolio for R$11.5 billion in a quiet regional power play.
With B3 shut, global data — especially today’s crucial U.S. jobs report — will set the tone for Friday’s reopening.
Economic Agenda for November 20, 2025
Brazil
- All Day – Black Awareness Day (B3 closed)
Implication: No local data or trading; Ibovespa reference 155,380.66. Post-holiday flows will react to U.S. payroll surprise.
Mexico
- 08:30 AM BRT – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (spillover)
- 10:00 AM BRT – Banxico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Implication: Dovish minutes + soft U.S. jobs = potential MXN rally despite debt concerns.
United States (key prints only)
- 08:30 AM BRT – Nonfarm Payrolls (cons 53K vs prev 22K)
- 08:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (cons 4.3%)
- 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings MoM (cons 0.3%)
- 09:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production MoM
- 10:00 AM BRT – Existing Home Sales (cons 4.08M)
Implication: Weak payrolls or soft wages revive Fed-cut odds → USD lower → relief for BRL and EM assets.
Other notable global events (3 key only)
- 02:00 AM BRT – Swiss Trade Balance (Act 4.319B, miss)
- 02:00 AM BRT – German PPI MoM (Act +0.1%, beat)
- 08:00 AM BRT – South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision (exp cut to 6.75%)
18:30 BRT – Japan National Core CPI (cons 3.0%)
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Ibovespa –0.73% to 155,380.66 (third consecutive drop). Banking sector hit by Banco Master fallout; meatpackers led the decline (Marfrig –8.6%, Minerva –4%). Dollar closed around R$5.34.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.6%. Nvidia +2.8% pre-earnings; markets snapped four-day losing streak.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Peso stable ~18.35; IPC +0.13%. Resilience despite public-debt warnings.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Merval –2.1%; FX gap narrowed to 2-3% but liquidity thinned.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Peso near three-year highs; COLCAP –0.5% but +40% YTD.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
IPSA +0.7%; peso resilient in low 930s after post-election gains.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
Consolidated with mild weakening as DXY held above 100 and Brent slipped. Support 5.27–5.30; resistance 5.34–5.36.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin ~$92,000 after brief dip below $90k. ETF outflows continued but whales accumulated aggressively.
Companies and Market
• Steel sector: October exports +28% (907k tons) while domestic sales –6.5%; growing reliance on external markets amid weak construction/auto demand and Asian imports.
• Renault & Geely: R$3.8 billion investment to upgrade Paraná plant for new electrified models from 2026 onward.
• Motiva → Asur (Mexico): R$11.5 billion sale of 20 airports (17 in Brazil); Motiva refocuses on highways/rail, Asur becomes one of the largest airport operators in the Americas.
• Ongoing Banco Master liquidation and Credit Guarantee Fund recapitalization pressure on major banks.
Markets reopen Friday. Enjoy the holiday.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
64,951.10
-0.24%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,819,323
+1.32%
2,549.16
-0.38%
60,410.88
-0.96%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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