Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 20, 2025
Brazil’s markets are closed today for Black Awareness Day, giving traders a forced pause after three straight losing sessions that left the Ibovespa at 155,380 points and the dollar near R$5.34.
The Banco Master liquidation shock and Fed minutes that cooled December-cut hopes dominated sentiment yesterday. However, longer-term positives are stacking up.
Brazil continues to lead the BRICS in foreign direct investment, with a US$1.14 trillion stock equivalent to 46.6% of GDP. The steel industry is successfully pivoting to exports.
Renault and Geely have committed R$3.8 billion to electrified-vehicle production in Paraná. Meanwhile, Mexico’s Asur is acquiring Motiva’s 20-airport portfolio for R$11.5 billion in a quiet regional power play.
With B3 shut, global data — especially today’s crucial U.S. jobs report — will set the tone for Friday’s reopening.
Economic Agenda for November 20, 2025
Brazil
- All Day – Black Awareness Day (B3 closed)
Implication: No local data or trading; Ibovespa reference 155,380.66. Post-holiday flows will react to U.S. payroll surprise.
Mexico
- 08:30 AM BRT – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (spillover)
- 10:00 AM BRT – Banxico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Implication: Dovish minutes + soft U.S. jobs = potential MXN rally despite debt concerns.
United States (key prints only)
- 08:30 AM BRT – Nonfarm Payrolls (cons 53K vs prev 22K)
- 08:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (cons 4.3%)
- 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings MoM (cons 0.3%)
- 09:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production MoM
- 10:00 AM BRT – Existing Home Sales (cons 4.08M)
Implication: Weak payrolls or soft wages revive Fed-cut odds → USD lower → relief for BRL and EM assets.
Other notable global events (3 key only)
- 02:00 AM BRT – Swiss Trade Balance (Act 4.319B, miss)
- 02:00 AM BRT – German PPI MoM (Act +0.1%, beat)
- 08:00 AM BRT – South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision (exp cut to 6.75%)
18:30 BRT – Japan National Core CPI (cons 3.0%)
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Ibovespa –0.73% to 155,380.66 (third consecutive drop). Banking sector hit by Banco Master fallout; meatpackers led the decline (Marfrig –8.6%, Minerva –4%). Dollar closed around R$5.34.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.6%. Nvidia +2.8% pre-earnings; markets snapped four-day losing streak.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Peso stable ~18.35; IPC +0.13%. Resilience despite public-debt warnings.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Merval –2.1%; FX gap narrowed to 2-3% but liquidity thinned.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Peso near three-year highs; COLCAP –0.5% but +40% YTD.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
IPSA +0.7%; peso resilient in low 930s after post-election gains.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
Consolidated with mild weakening as DXY held above 100 and Brent slipped. Support 5.27–5.30; resistance 5.34–5.36.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin ~$92,000 after brief dip below $90k. ETF outflows continued but whales accumulated aggressively.
Companies and Market
• Steel sector: October exports +28% (907k tons) while domestic sales –6.5%; growing reliance on external markets amid weak construction/auto demand and Asian imports.
• Renault & Geely: R$3.8 billion investment to upgrade Paraná plant for new electrified models from 2026 onward.
• Motiva → Asur (Mexico): R$11.5 billion sale of 20 airports (17 in Brazil); Motiva refocuses on highways/rail, Asur becomes one of the largest airport operators in the Americas.
• Ongoing Banco Master liquidation and Credit Guarantee Fund recapitalization pressure on major banks.
Markets reopen Friday. Enjoy the holiday.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.62%
176,444.54
-0.62%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,924.91
-0.77%
3,340,763
-1.15%
2,298.59
+0.07%
57,575.02
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.57% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.61% | -8.60% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.18% | -11.29% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.14 | +6.45% | +46.17% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 46,040 |
| WTI | 91.75 | +5.67% | +40.61% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 362,852 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,048 | -2.40% | +19.25% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 150,215 |
| SILVER | 57.76 | -3.77% | +47.04% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 33,193 |
| LITHIUM | 68.89 | -0.16% | +58.48% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 111,163 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.15 | +1.34% | +34.79% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 17,952,900 |
| VALE3 | 75.66 | +0.75% | +31.75% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 13,103,800 |
| SUZB3 | 42.39 | -0.63% | -18.07% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,748,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.65 | -1.56% | -4.62% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 3,410,300 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | -1.50% | -14.25% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.72 | 1,755,200 |
| ABEV3 | 15.87 | -1.61% | +16.78% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 12,850,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.43 | -1.10% | +23.52% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 17,265,400 |
| BBDC4 | 18.76 | -1.11% | +18.20% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 13,488,400 |
| BBAS3 | 20.93 | -0.76% | +3.56% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 15,775,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.63 | -1.70% | +16.73% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 28,041,500 |
| WEGE3 | 45.18 | -3.34% | +18.86% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,665,600 |
| PRIO3 | 61.08 | +2.19% | +43.77% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,577,300 |
| RENT3 | 36.99 | -0.40% | +2.07% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,571,800 |
| AZZA3 | 17.07 | -4.16% | -54.01% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.03 | 1,929,500 |
| CSNA3 | 5.34 | -0.74% | -39.00% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 10,293,300 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.82% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,750,100 |
| ENEV3 | 25.64 | -1.27% | +83.27% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,102,500 |
| LREN3 | 13.32 | -1.62% | -24.33% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,292,000 |