Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 24, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open Monday amid mixed signals, with foreign investors net buying R$31.2 billion year-to-date in stocks—offsetting R$50 billion in local outflows—as optimism on lower global rates and valuations clashes with domestic caution over high Selic yields and policy noise.
Panama’s bid for full Mercosur membership, set for formalization on December 20, eyes leveraging the Panama Canal for South American exports like soy and meat, potentially boosting regional trade routes but underscoring Brazil’s pivot toward open logistics over state-led models.
Trump’s tariff reversal eases pressure on $4 billion in ag exports like coffee and beef, yet nearly half of Brazil’s $39 billion in U.S. shipments—$16.1 billion in steel, aluminum, plywood, and transformers—still face 50% duties, risking R$175 billion in GDP losses and 1.3 million jobs if unresolved.
A fire in the COP30 Blue Zone in Belém halted talks, injured over a dozen delegates, and ballooned costs beyond R$1 billion, exposing infrastructure gaps that undermine green pledges and dent bio-economy confidence.
The macro fog thickens with U.S. jobs strength (119,000 added vs. 50,000 expected, unemployment at 4.4%) tying Fed cut bets in knots, firming the dollar above 100 and pressuring the real past 5.40 in a post-holiday catch-up.
Ibovespa futures hint at a flat-to-lower open near 154,000, digesting Friday’s 0.39% slip as Banco Master’s R$41 billion liquidation weighs on financials.
Key global prints steer dollar flows and commodity bids:
- 6:00 AM BRT – FGV Consumer Confidence (Nov) (cons. N/A, prev. 88.5%)—matters as a dip signals spending pullback, reinforcing Selic hold at 15% and capping BRL rebound amid fiscal scrutiny.
- 6:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout (cons. N/A, prev. N/A)—matters for updates on inflation (steady ~4.55%) and GDP views, where upside surprises could lure bond inflows but hawkish tweaks spike yields.
- 7:00 AM BRT – MXN 1st Half-Month CPI (Nov) (cons. N/A, prev. 0.28%), Core CPI (cons. N/A, prev. 0.18%)—matter as sticky inflation tempers Banxico cuts from 7.25%, steadying peso but spilling sympathy pressure to BRL if regional yields compress.
- 8:30 AM BRT – USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Oct) (cons. N/A, prev. -0.12)—matters because subzero reads post-jobs ease Fed pause fears, softening USD and aiding EM assets like Ibovespa cyclicals.
- 9:15 AM BRT – USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) (cons. N/A, prev. 0.1%), Capacity Utilization (Sep) (cons. 77.3%, prev. 77.4%)—matter as softening output reinforces rate-cut wagers, curbing dollar strength and supporting commodity bids for Petrobras and Vale.
- 9:50 AM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks—matters for hints on EZ restraint amid German Ifo softening, where dovish tones drag EUR and oil, hitting Brazilian exporters.
These matter because U.S. activity data and Brazil’s confidence readout set the post-jobs dollar rhythm, where downside revives EM relief but sticky MXN CPI prolongs LatAm yield appeal.
Economic Agenda for November 24, 2025
Brazil
- 6:00 AM BRT – FGV Consumer Confidence (Nov) Cons: Prev: 88.5%
- 6:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout Cons: Prev:
Implication: Weaker confidence + hawkish Focus = Selic pain at 15%, BRL tests 5.45, equity rotation to defensives; beats spark cut hopes, Ibovespa lift above 155,000.
Mexico
- 7:00 AM BRT – 1st Half-Month CPI (Nov) Cons: Prev: 0.28%
- 7:00 AM BRT – 1st Half-Month Core CPI (Nov) Cons: Prev: 0.18%
Implication: Upside CPI delays Banxico easing from 7.25%, peso to 18.60, BRL drag; within-target prints buoy near-shoring, regional risk-on.
United States
- 8:30 AM BRT – Chicago Fed National Activity (Oct) Cons: Prev: -0.12
- 9:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: Prev: 0.1%
- 9:15 AM BRT – Capacity Utilization Rate (Sep) Cons: 77.3% Prev: 77.4%
Implication: Subpar activity cools jobs-fueled hawkishness, dollar pause aids BRL below 5.40; firm reads spike yields, Ibovespa below 153,000.
Europe
- 4:00 AM BRT – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov) Cons: 88.6 Prev: 88.4
- 9:50 AM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Implication: Ifo miss caps EUR rebound, commodity drag for Vale; Lagarde dovishness supports risk-on, easing EM pressure.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s confidence and Focus anchor the open—resilient reads counter U.S. strength, drawing foreign inflows amid R$31.2 billion YTD buys; Mexico’s CPI tests Banxico path, with upside spilling contraction risks to LatAm peers.
Global activity prints dictate dollar tempo; U.S./German downside fuels EM bid, while Lagarde hints extend Selic allure at 15%.
Brazil’s Markets on Friday
The Ibovespa closed Friday at 154,770 points, down 0.39% on the day and 1.88% for the week, its lowest finish in two weeks and the fourth consecutive decline. The move came as the dollar jumped 1.18% to around R$5.40, extending its weekly gain to nearly 2%.
Traders described the session as a “post-holiday adjustment”: Brazil was shut on Thursday while global markets reacted to stronger-than-expected US jobs data and a sharp swing higher in the greenback.
The macro backdrop was confusing rather than catastrophic. US payrolls showed 119,000 new jobs in September, more than double market expectations, while unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. Investors now debate whether the Federal Reserve really has room to keep cutting rates.
U.S. Markets on Friday
U.S. markets closed higher on Friday, November 21, 2025, ending a volatile week on a positive note. The S&P 500 rose 1% to 6,602.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.1% to 46,245.41, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% to 22,273.08.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies led the way with a 2.8% jump. Stocks rallied after a Federal Reserve official suggested support for another interest rate cut in December, boosting market sentiment and easing Treasury yields.
Retailers like Gap and Ross Stores posted strong earnings, lifting their shares by 8.2% and 8.4%, respectively. Homebuilders also rose on expectations of lower mortgage rates, while tech and AI stocks saw mixed performance despite lingering valuation concerns.
Mexico’s Market on Friday
The Mexican peso wobbled around 18.48 per USD after a four-session climb, consolidating amid Banxico’s 7.25% yields, third-quarter GDP contraction, and renewed US$24 billion IMF credit line despite inflation in target.
The S&P/BMV IPC rose 0.4% to ~61,900, signaling calm in a slowing economy with industrials and consumers leading; gainers included Grupo Televisa, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, Grupo Financiero Inbursa, Gentera, and Regional, while losers were Orbia, Alfa, Bimbo, Banorte, and Grupo Carso; ETF flows stayed stable near average volumes.
Argentina’s Market on Friday
Argentina’s peso band held steady on Friday, with the wholesale dollar trading around 1,424 pesos, the Nación retail rate at 1,450 pesos, and the blue dollar near 1,425 pesos.
This created an almost unprecedented 2% gap between official and street rates, while financial dollars such as MEP and CCL clustered just above the band, reinforcing a tightly managed but credible regime.
However, rescue jitters from talks of a smaller US-backed package of roughly $4–5 billion, down from earlier mentions of up to $20 billion, drove up the JP Morgan risk premium above 650 basis points and triggered a broad sell-off in local and New York-listed Argentine assets.
Economy minister Luis Caputo denied any $20 billion deal had been agreed, attributing rumors to confusion-sowing efforts.
The S&P Merval stock index plunged 3.1% in thin holiday-affected trading, closing near 2.76 million points and erasing part of its post-election surge, with technical indicators showing a cooling phase toward moving averages and a short-term correction.
Major ADRs suffered, including Edenor dropping about 6.8%, BBVA Argentina falling 4.7%, Grupo Supervielle declining 4.3%, Grupo Galicia slipping 3.5%, and Banco Macro down 3.2%, while Bioceres gained roughly 4.5% and Mercado Libre rose about 2.8% amid selective global appetite.
Colombia’s Market on Friday
The Colombian peso rebounded toward 3,800 per dollar on Friday after dropping to sub-3,700 levels earlier in November, with Thursday’s onshore session seeing brisk trading of about USD 1.4 billion and an intraday range between roughly 3,770 and 3,824.
The Colcap index closed near 2,034 points, up 0.24%, reflecting a strong but tiring performance after surging about 44% in pesos year-to-date.
Notable gainers included Grupo Bolívar, Corficolombiana, and Celsia, while losers featured Terpel, Davivienda preferred shares, and ISA.
Colombia’s economy showed robust third-quarter GDP growth of 3.6% year-on-year, supported by a restrictive 9.25% policy rate that keeps real yields high, though inflation has risen to about 5.5% and a fiscal deficit is projected near 6.7% of GDP, arguing against early rate cuts.
Chile’s Market on Friday
Chile’s markets cooled on Friday following a post-election surge, with the Chilean peso slipping as the dollar closed near CLP 940 after briefly trading closer to 923 earlier in the week, influenced by a firmer global dollar with the Dollar Index around 100 and a mild pullback in copper prices above US$10,700 per tonne after losing momentum.
The peso remained among the region’s better performers in November, with markets having priced in a more market-friendly policy mix post-first-round election results, amid anticipation of December’s run-off and Central Bank guidance on its rate-cutting cycle as inflation approaches target.
The S&P IPSA index edged up 0.3% to just under 9,830 points, recovering in the closing auction after trading in the red and staying below the 10,000-point level.
Major gainers included pension and metals stocks such as CUPRUM up 7%, PLANVITAL up 4.5%, MOLYMET up 3.4%, CALICHERAA up 3.1%, and PROVIDA up 2.8%, while major losers were mostly utilities and basic materials including COLBUN down 3.5%, ALMENDRAL down 3.2%, ENEL CHILE down 3.1%, Minera down 2.9%, and Pucobre down 2.8%.
The IPSA showed a structural uptrend with year-to-date gains near 50%, but was in digestion mode with RSI in overbought territory.
Oil
Brent and WTI entered Monday trading quietly, orbiting 62 and 58 dollars a barrel after a bruising week that reset expectations for crude.
Prices are more than 20 percent below January highs, and the market is trying to decide whether this is a floor or a waystation to cheaper oil. The immediate shock came from Washington.
A forceful push by the Trump administration for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, with a tight deadline, made traders reprice the sanctions risk almost overnight.
If a settlement eventually relaxes restrictions on Russian exports, millions of barrels a day could reach global buyers more easily.
Russian Urals is already selling at steep discounts into India, undercutting Middle Eastern grades and forcing Gulf producers to trim official prices to defend Asian market share.
Gold
Gold spent the past week knocking on the same door and getting pushed back every time. Spot prices hovered around $4,040–$4,060 an ounce on Monday morning, barely changed from Friday, even after a year-to-date gain of more than 50 percent and an October record above $4,380.
The rally has paused, not collapsed. Under the surface, demand still looks powerful. Central banks have lifted gold’s share in their reserves from roughly one eighth to more than one fifth in just a few years, often as a hedge against heavy debt and experimental monetary policy.
Exchange-traded funds keep adding metal, with several months of strong inflows and assets at record highs. Chinese and Indian buyers remain active, even after some local tax incentives were trimmed, while new corporate players, including stablecoin issuers, have started to behave like mid-sized central banks.
Silver
Silver is catching its breath after one of the strongest runs in its modern history. Spot prices this morning hover just below $50 an ounce, slipping a fraction on the day but still more than 60% higher than a year ago.
The pause follows a choppy week. From roughly $51 early last Monday, XAG/USD slid 2–3%, with the heaviest selling between Wednesday and Friday.
COMEX front-month futures briefly dipped under $49 on heavy volume above 100,000 contracts, while the LBMA fix in London dropped from about $52.20 to below $49.
Overnight trading has been quieter, with futures oscillating between $49.4 and $49.8 in thinner books. Physical markets are adjusting rather than collapsing.
Shanghai futures trade around 11,800–11,900 yuan per kilogram, off recent peaks but still elevated. In India, retail prices stand near ₹1.64–1.72 lakh per kilogram, down only ₹100 from the previous session.
Copper
Copper began Monday trading slightly higher, with COMEX near $5.09 per pound and LME three-month contracts around $10,800 a ton.
Moves were small after a bruising week that left prices roughly unchanged but traders nervous and volume elevated. Shanghai futures inched up as well, signalling that Asian buyers are not abandoning the metal.
The damage came mid-week. Tech stocks sold off, crypto markets crashed and delayed U.S. jobs data undercut hopes for a quick Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar firmed and risk appetite vanished.
Copper followed, briefly touching its lowest level since early November and posting the steepest weekly loss since April. Market veterans blamed leverage and overextended speculators far more than any collapse in real demand.
Iron Ore
Benchmark iron ore with 62% Fe content delivered to China is trading around $104.6 a tonne this morning, a fraction higher on the day and still comfortably above the psychologically crucial $100 mark.
The move caps a remarkably calm week in which Singapore’s main futures contract has shuffled between roughly $103.8 and $104.9, with a brief mid-week pop on stimulus hopes followed by a mild fade as Chinese steel margins weakened again.
Overnight trading added only a few cents, while Dalian futures hovered near 790 yuan, reinforcing the message of tight but orderly conditions.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real weakened to ~5.40 USD/BRL Friday, catching up to a dollar index spike above 100 as U.S. jobs data cooled Fed cut bets, with Selic at 15% drawing bond appeal despite R$50 billion YTD local outflows and tariff relief on select ag exports.
Technicals: Breakout above short-term MAs with overbought 4H RSI; bias to 5.45 if U.S. activity softens, pullback to 5.35–5.38 on FX swaps.
Cryptocurrencies
The crypto market wakes up trying to steady itself after one of its darkest months in years. Global market value sits near $3 trillion, up about 1% overnight yet still far from October’s peak.
Bitcoin trades around $87,000, Ethereum near $2,850, with most large coins slightly higher after a Sunday bounce from extreme oversold levels. Behind that modest green lies a heavy unwind.
Spot bitcoin ETFs have posted record weekly volumes near $40 billion but several billion dollars of net outflows. Stablecoin supply is shrinking and highly marketed “digital-asset treasury” strategies are being cut back. Capital is not rotating inside crypto; it is leaving.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
São Paulo’s property boom cools on micro-apartments, with non-residential launches plunging to 540 in October 2024 from 3,000+ peaks in 2021, as Selic mid-teens favor fixed-income over leveraged Airbnb plays and zoning hikes costs via outorga onerosa fees.
Developers like Visar, Union Braz Leme, and Natus Braz Leme pivot to long-term residential, offices, and retail in Vila Mariana and Pinheiros, curbing speculative short-stays amid regulatory clamps on social-housing abuses.
Bolsonaro’s preventive arrest by Federal Police—tied to a 27-year coup conviction and rally risks—turns a Flávio-led prayer vigil into a democracy stress test, polarizing investors on judicial overreach vs. accountability amid U.S. ties probes. Foreign stock buys prop Ibovespa at R$31.2 billion YTD, contrasting local caution on fiscal noise.
Key Developments
Airbnb-style micro-apartments fade in São Paulo, with 16,676 launched 2019–2024 now stalling on rate hikes and Master Plan tweaks eliminating NR incentives, shifting to conventional housing and mixed-use to sustain R$680 million+ project sales.
Bolsonaro’s arrest from Brasília condo on Moraes order enforces coup probe restrictions, placing ex-president in special quarters amid Eduardo’s U.S. coercion defendant status, testing institutions without turmoil spillover to markets.
Trump lifted the 40% tariff on several Brazilian ag products, but steel, aluminum, plywood and transformers (≈$16.1 bn of exports) remain punished with 50% duties.
A fire destroyed part of the COP30 venue in Belém, halting the summit and pushing costs above R$1 billion — another blow to Brazil’s green-image plays.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
64,951.10
-0.24%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,819,323
+1.32%
2,549.16
-0.38%
60,410.88
-0.96%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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