Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 21, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets reopen today after the Black Awareness Day holiday, bracing for a catch-up sell-off in the Ibovespa. Wall Street’s AI-fueled rally unraveled into a $2.7 trillion rout, triggered by a resilient U.S. jobs report and Fed caution on rate cuts.
The report added 119,000 jobs against 50,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.4% and wages up 3.8% year-on-year. This has revived “higher for longer” fears that could strengthen the dollar and pressure emerging-market assets.
Amid the turbulence, President Trump made an abrupt u-turn on a 40% tariff covering Brazilian beef, coffee, orange juice, cocoa, tropical fruits, aircraft parts, and oil.
The tariff had been imposed in mid-2025 over political tensions but was reversed via decree on November 20, retroactive to November 13, following U.S. business lobbying and Lula-Trump talks.
This move lifts a major export barrier for agribusiness, potentially refunds duties, and eases inflation pass-through to U.S. consumers.
Meanwhile, a fire at the COP30 venue in Belém has turned Brazil’s upcoming climate summit into an embarrassment, highlighting infrastructure vulnerabilities that could dent investor confidence in green transition pledges and bio-economy plays.
Nvidia’s blockbuster $57 billion revenue quarter (up 60% YoY, guidance $65 billion) failed to stem the tide, with its 3.2% plunge dragging peers like Micron (-11%), AMD (-8%), and Applied Materials (-6%), amplifying global tech de-risking with spillovers to Brazilian cyclicals.
Yesterday’s BCB Focus report held 2025 inflation steady near 4.55%, underscoring contained pressures and the high-carry allure of a 15% Selic amid fiscal scrutiny.
Key global prints steer dollar flows and commodity bids:
- 02:00 AM BRT UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) (cons. -0.1%, prev. 0.7%), Core Retail Sales (MoM) (cons. -0.2%, prev. 0.7%), and Public Sector Net Borrowing (cons. 15.20B, prev. 19.89B)—these matter because weak consumer spending and fiscal slippage signal BoE restraint, curbing GBP strength and indirectly supporting BRL carry if EM yields hold appeal.
- 03:15 AM BRT French Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (cons. 49.0, prev. 48.8), Services PMI (cons. 48.4, prev. 48.0), and Composite PMI (cons. 48.1, prev. 47.7)—matter as further contraction tempers EZ rebound hopes, dragging EUR and oil sentiment to hit Petrobras.
- 09:45 AM BRT U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (cons. 52.0, prev. 52.5), Services PMI (cons. 54.6, prev. 54.8), and Composite PMI (cons. 54.5, prev. 54.6)—matter because softening activity post-jobs shock reinforces Fed pause, firming USD and pressuring Ibovespa below 140,000.
These matter because global PMIs and UK data set the dollar rhythm, where EZ/U.S. downside revives EM bid but UK fiscal woes prolong safe-haven flows.
Economic Agenda for November 21, 2025
Brazil
- 09:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.1% Prev: –0.1%
- 09:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 2.5% Prev: 1.8%
- 10:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) Cons: –0.5% Prev: 0.3%
Implication: Soft IP + weak retail = easing delays, BRL below 5.35, equity pullback; beats fuel cut wagers, Ibovespa rebound.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – Economic Activity (MoM) (Sep) Cons: –0.30% Prev: 0.60%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Economic Activity (YoY) (Sep) Cons: 0.80% Prev: –0.90%
- 07:00 AM BRT – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: –0.1% Prev: 0.6%
- 07:00 AM BRT – GDP (YoY) (Q3) Cons: –0.2% Prev: 0.0%
Implication: Contraction drags near-shoring, peso slides to 18.50, BRL sympathy pressure.
United States
- 09:45 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Cons: 52.0 Prev: 52.5
- 09:45 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov) Cons: 54.5 Prev: 54.6
- 09:45 AM BRT – Services PMI (Nov) Cons: 54.6 Prev: 54.8
Implication: Cooling PMIs ease Fed hike fears, dollar pause aids BRL; firm reads spike yields, EM sell-off.
Europe
- 03:15 AM BRT – French Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Cons: 49.0 Prev: 48.8
- 03:15 AM BRT – French S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov) Cons: 48.1 Prev: 47.7
- 03:15 AM BRT – French Services PMI (Nov) Cons: 48.4 Prev: 48.0
Implication: Deeper contraction caps EUR, commodity drag hits Vale; mild softening supports risk-on.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s IP and retail anchor the post-holiday open—resilient data counters U.S. shock, buoying inflows; Mexico’s GDP tests regional resilience, with downside spilling to LatAm peers.
Global PMIs dictate dollar tempo; U.S./French misses fuel EM relief, while beats extend Selic pain at 15%.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
São Paulo’s B3 was closed for Black Awareness Day, but Ibovespa futures point to a gap-down open around 1.5–2% lower, catching up to Wall Street’s brutal reversal where Nvidia’s earnings euphoria flipped to a $2.7 trillion wipeout on jobs strength and Fed hawkishness, pressuring the EWZ ETF down 2% in after-hours.
The real held steady near 5.33 per dollar amid cooling global dollar rally, buoyed by 15% Selic carry and tariff relief on ag exports. Cyclicals like Petrobras and Vale may extend losses on oil’s >2% dip, while retail and solar plays eye grid woes curbing 20% of output.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock markets closed sharply lower on Thursday, November 20, 2025, capping a wild session that erased early AI-driven gains amid a delayed jobs bombshell and Fed minutes signaling rate caution.
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.2%, its worst day since April, with tech shedding 2.7% and semis nearly 5%.
Nvidia led the carnage despite blowout results, turning from +2.5% to -3.2%. YTD: S&P +14.6%, Nasdaq +19.2%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso held firm around 18.37–18.39 per USD, consolidating in a 18.30–18.45 range on Banxico’s 7.25% yields despite global de-risking.
The S&P/BMV IPC slipped 0.7% to ~61,700, echoing Wall Street’s tech rout with losers like Gentera (-4%), Regional (-3.5%), and Grupo México (-2.5%), while Banorte (+1.3%) and Arca Continental (+1.2%) gained defensively.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso steadied with official at 1,450 ARS/USD, blue at 1,425 (gap ~25 ARS), as Central Bank eased rates and repo’d $4 billion for January debt amid a collapsed $20 billion loan.
S&P Merval swung to flat near 2.85 million, with early risers Aluar (+2.7%) and Telecom (+1.1%) fading to -3.5% losses amid dollar strength and funding jitters, country risk above 600 bps.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso firmed to ~3,710 COP/USD from 3,760, but MSCI COLCAP eased to 2,030 after 50% YTD surge, marking two straight drops as fiscal deficit fears at 6.7% GDP erode inflows. Ecopetrol and ISA dipped, offset by Conconcreto and Cementos Argos gains on domestic rotation.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso clung to post-election highs near 929 per USD on Kast’s lead and copper support, with central bank at 4.75%.
S&P IPSA cooled 0.7% to 9,802 from records, with SQM-B (-3.5%) and Enel Chile (-2%) dragging amid global risk-off, while Parque Arauco (+2%) led retail resilience.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real held its nerve at ~5.33 USD/BRL Thursday, defying a fleeting dollar index spike above 100 as U.S. jobs data cooled Fed cut bets, with Selic at 15% and lower 2025 inflation views (4.55%) drawing bond inflows despite November outflows and 2026 election hedges.
Technicals: Narrow range mid-5.30s near short-term MAs, RSI mid-40s; bias to 5.28–5.30 if dollar corrects on tariff tailwinds.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto extended losses; Bitcoin slammed into its 20-month moving average, sinking to mid-$80,000s (-~40% from $126k October peak) on ETF outflows, whale caution, and risk rotation to bonds/gold, with RSI rollover and MACD decline signaling trend reversal—next supports $78k/$72k. Ether below $3,000, Solana tumbling, no altcoin relief in broad de-risking.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
The solar surge powers ahead with 62 GW installed, representing R$279.7 billion invested and 1.8 million jobs created. However, Northeast-to-Southeast grid strains are curtailing 20% of output, resulting in 1.2 TWh wasted and losses rising to 15–16% along with R$10.3 billion in theft.
These are challenges for utilities like Enel, especially amid embarrassment at COP30 over fire-related issues. Agribusiness exhales on Trump’s tariff reversal unlocking $ billions in U.S. beef/coffee/juice flows.
Key Developments
Nvidia revenue soared to $57B (+60% YoY), guidance $65B, but stock cratered 3.2% in $2.7T rout, dragging Micron (-11%), AMD (-8%), Applied Materials (-6%), Palo Alto (-7%), Apple (-0.9%), Microsoft (-1.8%), Alphabet (-1.0%), Meta (-0.2%), Amazon (-2.5%), Tesla (-2.2%) on AI spending doubts and jobs-fueled Fed pause.
Brazil’s solar boom hits 62 GW (43 GW distributed), drawing $52B investment and avoiding 91M tonnes CO2, but grid curtailments waste 14% renewables annually, exposing infrastructure gaps that undermine export competitiveness.
Lula nominates AG Jorge Messias, 45, to Supreme Court—ensuring left-leaning majority through ~2055—shaping fiscal, election, and Lava Jato probes with pro-democracy bent that may ease regulatory hurdles for state-linked firms.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-1.52%
174,041.95
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10,953.59
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,041.95 | -1.52% | +30.07% | 176,723.62 | 176,720 | 174,042 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | +0.01% | -7.81% | 5.08 | 5.09 | 5.05 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | +0.05% | -10.94% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.75 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 98.38 | -2.29% | +42.21% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 95.14 | 29,916 |
| WTI | 90.47 | -1.87% | +37.01% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 87.68 | 336,373 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.24% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,056 | +0.22% | +20.31% | 4,047 | 4,085 | 4,024 | 112,402 |
| SILVER | 58.49 | +1.20% | +49.89% | 57.80 | 59.29 | 57.36 | 26,053 |
| LITHIUM | 67.81 | -1.75% | +51.94% | 69.02 | 68.69 | 67.73 | 177,410 |
| SOY | 1,253 | +1.21% | +24.72% | 1,238 | 1,257 | 1,238 | 166,916 |
| CORN | 487.25 | +5.01% | +21.28% | 464.00 | 492.00 | 479.25 | 257,469 |
| WHEAT | 679.00 | -2.48% | +25.39% | 696.25 | 711.25 | 659.50 | 117,726 |
| COFFEE | 314.20 | +1.55% | +3.07% | 309.40 | 318.55 | 306.40 | 14,168 |
| SUGAR | 14.76 | +0.48% | -10.92% | 14.69 | 14.79 | 14.54 | 45,966 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.65 | -2.83% | -57.91% | 146.80 | 146.15 | 141.50 | 345 |
| COTTON | 80.00 | +0.20% | +18.80% | 79.84 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 11,312 |
| BEEF | 222.58 | -1.25% | -1.43% | 225.40 | 224.13 | 220.78 | 19,283 |
| CATTLE | 342.05 | -0.50% | +4.00% | 343.77 | 345.48 | 337.25 | 9,940 |
| COCOA | 5,331 | +0.57% | -34.38% | 5,301 | 5,438 | 5,227 | 17,604 |
| PETR4 | 42.21 | -1.72% | +32.15% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 29,107,700 |
| VALE3 | 75.24 | -0.58% | +33.10% | 75.68 | 75.53 | 74.84 | 8,619,900 |
| SUZB3 | 41.84 | -1.39% | -18.76% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 3,638,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.52 | -0.79% | -5.27% | 17.66 | 17.59 | 17.32 | 3,680,600 |
| SLCE3 | 13.64 | -0.94% | -14.51% | 13.77 | 13.80 | 13.63 | 1,432,400 |
| ABEV3 | 15.64 | -1.76% | +15.85% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.61 | 15,218,500 |
| ITUB4 | 42.10 | -1.08% | +23.68% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.04 | 10,426,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.86% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.42 | 13,960,400 |
| BBAS3 | 20.35 | -2.77% | +1.40% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.35 | 14,376,400 |
| B3SA3 | 15.44 | -1.34% | +17.68% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 35,146,600 |
| WEGE3 | 45.99 | +0.70% | +26.94% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 7,717,700 |
| PRIO3 | 58.82 | -2.84% | +39.05% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.46 | 5,375,200 |
| RENT3 | 36.89 | -0.67% | +2.56% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 4,733,700 |
| AZZA3 | 16.65 | -2.35% | -54.40% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.65 | 1,511,900 |
| CSNA3 | 5.36 | +1.13% | -37.31% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 8,140,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.39% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 5,543,500 |
| ENEV3 | 24.90 | -3.11% | +79.65% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.87 | 4,494,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.75% | -22.31% | 13.37 | 13.49 | 13.18 | 7,803,700 |