Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 17, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today extending a remarkable bullish streak, with the Ibovespa closing just shy of a record at 157,738 points on Friday amid global wobbles in New York, Europe, and Asia.
China’s 25.7% export surge to $27.1 billion offset U.S. tariff-driven losses of $2.5 billion and added $5.6 billion through soybeans, beef, and oil, supporting resilient trade balances.
Growth is shifting inland to medium-sized cities such as Sinop, Sorriso, and Uberlândia, boosting agribusiness-linked finance, logistics, and services. Courts suspended Oi’s bankruptcy amid $15 billion in debt to preserve 13,000 jobs and maintain essential telecom services.
BNDES has also rebuilt strength, delivering R$11.2 billion in profits, R$616 billion in loans, and R$101.9 billion in disbursements to reinforce its infrastructure firepower.
Today’s economic agenda centers on the BCB Focus readout at 6:25 AM EST (7:25 AM BRT), aggregating market forecasts for inflation, GDP growth, Selic rate path, and other variables—pivotal amid high Selic at 15% anchoring real stability near 5.30, easing inflation toward target, and trade surpluses from commodity strength supporting export competitiveness.
The IBC-Br Economic Activity at 7:00 AM EST (8:00 AM BRT) tracks September’s broad activity index—key for gauging post-Q3 momentum in a high-rate environment where quality growth via mix and discipline trumps volume, influencing Selic expectations and carry attractiveness.
U.S. data like NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM EST (9:30 AM BRT), Construction Spending at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT), and Federal Budget Balance at 11:00 AM EST (12:00 PM BRT) will clarify industrial demand, infrastructure trends, and fiscal strains impacting Brazil’s metals, machinery exports, and global yields pressuring emerging carry trades.
Brazil’s BCB Focus Market Readout at 6:25 AM EST (7:25 AM BRT) aggregates expectations for inflation, GDP, and rates—critical as local price signals ease, high Selic at 15% attracts yield, and trade offsets like China’s $5.6 billion boost support the real near 5.30.
IBC-Br at 7:00 AM EST (8:00 AM BRT) gauges September activity—essential for Q3 follow-through amid inland growth shifts and BNDES lending surge.
U.S. Empire State at 8:30 AM EST (9:30 AM BRT) signals manufacturing momentum relevant for Brazil’s industrial flows; Construction Spending at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) tracks builds impacting machinery exports; Federal Budget at 11:00 AM EST (12:00 PM BRT) reveals fiscal gaps influencing yields and carry.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- 6:25 AM EST / 7:25 AM BRT – BRL BCB Focus Market Readout: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Aggregates forecasts for inflation, GDP, and Selic rate, pivotal for policy amid contained inflation and real at ~5.30.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – BRL IBC-Br Economic Activity (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.40%. Tracks broad activity, key for growth momentum in high-rate cycle.
Key Events
United States
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov): Actual TBD, Consensus 6.10, Previous 10.70. Gauges regional factory health, impacting Brazil’s metals exports.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.2%, Previous -0.1%. Signals infrastructure demand, relevant for machinery and materials trade.
- 11:00 AM EST / 12:00 PM BRT – USD Federal Budget Balance (Oct): Actual TBD, Consensus -215.3B, Previous 198.0B. Highlights fiscal strains, influencing global yields and emerging carry.
Eurozone
- 05:00 AM EST / 06:00 AM BRT – EUR European Union Economic Forecasts: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Updates growth/inflation outlooks, affecting commodity demand for Brazil.
- 06:00 AM EST / 07:00 AM BRT – EUR German Buba Monthly Report: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides economic insights, signaling Eurozone sentiment for ag/energy ties.
- 09:45 AM EST / 10:45 AM BRT – EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Policy comments on rates/inflation, impacting global liquidity and Brazil’s exports.
Canada
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – CAD CPI (MoM) (Oct): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.1%. Tracks inflation momentum, relevant for commodity pricing and trade flows.
Brazil’s Market on Friday
Brazil’s equity market notched a close just shy of a record at 157,738 points on Friday, extending a remarkable run even as overseas sentiment wobbled in New York, Europe, and Asia.
The Ibovespa rose amid global jitters, with São Paulo emerging as a rare equity haven for expats and foreign investors drawn to half the earnings multiples of developed markets, easing inflation toward target, generous Selic carry at 15%, and cash-generative companies.
The day belonged to Petrobras, gaining on firmer oil and anticipation of its 2026–2030 plan emphasizing profitable projects and hefty dividends; the newly combined Marfrig-BRF group leapt almost 12% on joint results showing resilient meat and processed-food margins; Braskem jumped on talks of its controlling shareholder selling to a private manager.
On the losing side, education group Yduqs sank after a weaker-than-expected profit report, dragging peer Cogna; health-insurer Hapvida slid on higher medical costs and slashed foreign recommendations; some utilities and major reinsurer IRB slipped as money rotated to growth/risk shares.
Behind the moves, disciplined policy, efficiency, and open markets reward Brazil, though technically overbought on daily charts (top of band, overbought momentum) with four-hour fatigue signaling a pause/pullback.
U.S. Markets on Friday
U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Friday, November 14, 2025, with the S&P 500 finished essentially flat, the Dow slipped, and the Nasdaq eked out a small gain as big tech stocks stabilized late in the day. Earlier, all major indexes had fallen more than 1% before dip-buyers stepped in.
For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow posted slight gains while the Nasdaq ended modestly lower, with small caps lagging more noticeably.
Tech stocks rebounded on Friday after a sharp mid-week sell-off, helped by positioning ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming earnings, seen as a key indicator for the ongoing AI investment cycle.
Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year moving toward the mid-4% range as markets reassessed the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut. Higher yields kept pressure on more rate-sensitive sectors.
Risk sentiment remained cautious across assets: Bitcoin hit a six-month low during the session, reinforcing the wary mood even as equities recovered into the close.
Overall, the week closed with a sense of stabilization but little conviction, as investors balanced improving tech sentiment against lingering concerns over rates and valuations.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real held steady into the weekend, with USD/BRL around 5.30 early Monday after Friday’s close, supported by high Selic at 15% drawing yield-hungry funds, easing inflation signals, and commodity tailwinds like rising oil/iron ore from Chinese demand improving trade balances.
U.S. dollar strength against euro/yen hasn’t cracked the real, with orderly daily weakening vs. USD and modest four-hour bounces; sideways dollar index and Fed debates on cuts cap extremes. Technically, bearish for USD/BRL with resistance at 5.32–5.35, support at 5.28/5.27.
Today’s BCB Focus at 6:25 AM EST (7:25 AM BRT) and U.S. Empire State/Construction data at 8:30–10:00 AM EST (9:30–11:00 AM BRT) will guide inflation/yield trends.
Oil Prices
Oil started the week backpedaling with Brent just under $64 and WTI around $60 a barrel after unwinding Friday’s risk premium from brief Russian export halts at Novorossiysk (2% global supply).
Choppy week saw Brent swing 62.7–65.2 and WTI 58.5–61, pressured by OPEC+ outlook for 2026 supply matching demand, U.S. inventory builds, and modest IEA growth at 0.8 million bpd for 2025–2026. No major reports today.
Gold Prices
Gold traded around $4,050–4,080/oz on Monday, stumbling from weekly highs above $4,200 amid hawkish Fed remarks slashing December cut odds and leveraged unwinds.
Q3 demand hit record on investment/central bank buys. Technically, daily correction in uptrend above support, 4,000–4,050 defended. Aids Brazil’s mining exports.
Silver Prices
Silver circled $51/oz on Monday, testing $50 support after record highs near $54 and COMEX volume spikes. 2025 deficit eyed at 95 million oz. Daily uptrend above 200-day MA; four-hour corrective, 49–50 make-or-break. Bolsters Brazil’s mining.
Copper Prices
Copper traded just below $11,000/tonne (LME) or near $5.05/lb (COMEX) starting the week firmer, supported by stabilizing China signals and receding supply risks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rebounded tentatively to mid-$95,000s after weekend plunge toward $93,000 on forced selling; $1 trillion crypto value evaporated. Long-term holders dumped 815,000 coins. Brazil’s fintech tracks volatility.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore hovered $104–105/tonne (62% Fe China) on Monday, holding above $100 in narrow November band after flat week on better steel output vs. weak property. Four-hour bounce from $103. Impacts Vale’s exports.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s economy rewards discipline amid global jitters, with Ibovespa’s 157,738 close reflecting earnings quality and commodity tone, while the real near 5.30 benefits from trade surpluses, high Selic carry, and inland growth redistribution.
Key Developments
JHSF Luxury Surge: Q3 net profit doubled to R$304 million on 40% revenue growth; mall/airport boom signals luxury infrastructure play.
IRB Reinsurer Cleanup: Q3 net R$99 million, claims ratio improved; post-scandal recovery eyes 2026 dividends.
Oi Life Support: Bankruptcy suspended to preserve 13,000 jobs and essential services; arbitration eyes billions.
Azul Revenue Clash: Record Q3 revenue R$5.7 billion but net loss R$644 million on heavy debt; Chapter 11 looms.
Banco BMG/Yduqs/EzTec: BMG profit +27%, Yduqs weak results drag sector, EzTec best profit in 8 years.
Natura/3tentos/LWSA: Natura simplifying, 3tentos revenue +43% despite profit drop, LWSA EBITDA +11%.
Cemig Profit Drop: Q3 net -75.7% on free-market shift and thin margins.
Cyrela Profit Surge: Q3 net +29% to R$609 million on core sales and Cury windfall.
JBS Record Sales: Q3 sales +13% to $22.6 billion but margin squeeze from U.S. cattle costs.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.62%
176,444.54
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10,924.91
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3,340,763
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57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.57% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.61% | -8.60% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.18% | -11.29% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.14 | +6.45% | +46.17% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 46,040 |
| WTI | 91.75 | +5.67% | +40.61% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 362,852 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,048 | -2.40% | +19.25% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 150,215 |
| SILVER | 57.76 | -3.77% | +47.04% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 33,193 |
| LITHIUM | 68.89 | -0.16% | +58.48% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 111,163 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.15 | +1.34% | +34.79% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 17,952,900 |
| VALE3 | 75.66 | +0.75% | +31.75% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 13,103,800 |
| SUZB3 | 42.39 | -0.63% | -18.07% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,748,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.65 | -1.56% | -4.62% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 3,410,300 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | -1.50% | -14.25% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.72 | 1,755,200 |
| ABEV3 | 15.87 | -1.61% | +16.78% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 12,850,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.43 | -1.10% | +23.52% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 17,265,400 |
| BBDC4 | 18.76 | -1.11% | +18.20% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 13,488,400 |
| BBAS3 | 20.93 | -0.76% | +3.56% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 15,775,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.63 | -1.70% | +16.73% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 28,041,500 |
| WEGE3 | 45.18 | -3.34% | +18.86% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,665,600 |
| PRIO3 | 61.08 | +2.19% | +43.77% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,577,300 |
| RENT3 | 36.99 | -0.40% | +2.07% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,571,800 |
| AZZA3 | 17.07 | -4.16% | -54.01% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.03 | 1,929,500 |
| CSNA3 | 5.34 | -0.74% | -39.00% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 10,293,300 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.82% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,750,100 |
| ENEV3 | 25.64 | -1.27% | +83.27% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,102,500 |
| LREN3 | 13.32 | -1.62% | -24.33% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,292,000 |