Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 14, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today amid trade tensions easing slightly as Brazil seeks a 90-day freeze on U.S. import duties to stabilize supply chains for steel, machinery, footwear, pulp, and food exports, providing breathing room for producers and curbing inflation risks in the U.S.
However, China’s surplus steel flooding Latin markets, including Brazil via quotas and indirect imports, is compressing local margins, delaying investments, and hollowing out industrial bases in construction, autos, and infrastructure.
Finance Minister Haddad’s potential exit raises fiscal stability concerns, as he has been the key restraint on President Lula’s spending pressures for social programs, wage hikes, and subsidies, potentially weakening the new fiscal framework, spiking interest rates, and eroding investor predictability if a more deficit-tolerant successor emerges.
On a brighter note, factory pessimism eased with the ICEI rising to 48.3 points on better expectations for efficiency, though trust remains below neutral due to high taxes, borrowing costs, weak demand, and hiring challenges, constraining industrial expansion.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s grain super-cycle cools in 2026 with output dipping 3.7% to 332.7 million tons amid La Niña weather risks, though soybeans hit records at 167.7 million tons, sustaining agribusiness as a GDP driver and export powerhouse.
Today’s Brazilian print is the IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) at 06:00 AM BRT (consensus: N/A, previous: 0.1%). This broad inflation gauge, covering wholesale, consumer, and construction costs, matters because an upside surprise could reinforce the Central Bank’s restrictive Selic stance, tempering rate-cut bets and pressuring the BRL, while a soft reading would bolster easing conviction, supporting equity inflows and consumption recovery amid cooling activity.
Key global prints steer sentiment:
- 02:45 AM BRT French CPI NSA (MoM) (Oct) (consensus: 0.1%, previous: 0.1%);
- 03:00 AM BRT Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) (consensus: 2.5%, previous: 2.4%);
- 32 min (approx. 09:00 AM BRT) Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.1%).
These matter because softer French/EZ inflation could fuel ECB dovishness, weakening EUR and easing commodity pressures for Brazil’s exports; upside risks curb easing, strengthening dollar spill and capping EM risk-on.
Stronger EZ GDP signals resilience, supporting regional trade but highlighting divergence from Brazil’s slowdown.
Economic Agenda for November 14, 2025
Brazil
- 06:00 AM BRT – IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) (Nov) Cons: N/A Prev: 0.1%
Implication: Soft print = easing conviction, BRL support, equity bid; hot reading = Selic hawkishness, currency pressure.
Mexico
- 15:30 PM BRT – CFTC MXN speculative net positions (Nov 12) Cons: N/A Prev: 83.4K
Implication: Bullish positioning buildup = peso carry strength; unwind signals risk-off on U.S. policy spill.
United States
- 07:30 AM BRT – Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov 8) Cons: N/A Prev: 1,926K
- 07:30 AM BRT – Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (Nov 9) Cons: N/A Prev: 237.50K
- 10:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug) Cons: N/A Prev: -0.2%
Implication: Dovish claims/inventories = Fed cut odds rise, dollar eases, EM rally; firm data prolongs hawkish pause, risk-off for Ibovespa.
Europe
- 02:45 AM BRT – French CPI NSA (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.1%
- 03:00 AM BRT – Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 2.5% Prev: 2.4%
- 32 min (approx. 09:00 AM BRT) – Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.1%
Implication: Soft CPI/GDP = ECB easing bets, EUR weakness spills to BRL strength; upside curbs drag, commodity relief for Petrobras.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s IGP-10 anchors inflation path—downside keeps post-peak optimism alive, fueling Selic-cut conviction and foreign inflows.
U.S. claims/inventories/Fed signals set dollar rhythm; soft data prolongs EM revival and Ibovespa momentum, while hot prints cap gains amid fiscal uncertainties like Haddad’s potential exit.
EZ CPI/GDP tone influences EUR-commodity nexus, with dovish reads supporting Brazil’s grain and steel exports amid global overcapacity pressures.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s equities slipped further, with the Ibovespa closing at 157,162 (-0.30%) as a Wall Street selloff from fading rate-cut hopes rippled through, compounded by a healthcare rout led by Hapvida’s 43% plunge on weak Q3 cash generation and quality, triggering downgrades and de-risking across the sector.
The dollar firmed to R$5.298 amid softer domestic retail sales (-0.3% MoM in September, below expectations) and the Finance Ministry’s trimmed 2025 GDP forecast to 2.2% with IPCA at 4.6%, reinforcing slowdown signals and selective foreign investor caution.
Defensives like staples and utilities gained on rotation to cash-flow resilience, while homebuilder MRV advanced on Brazilian margin recovery offsetting U.S. subsidiary Resia’s softer performance; losers included Banco do Brasil on agribusiness credit pressures, Raízen, Braskem, and Cosan amid earnings digestion, energy weakness, and profit-taking.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks tumbled on November 13, 2025, as investors retreated from big tech and reassessed Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations.
The S&P 500 fell 1.66% to 6,737, the Nasdaq dropped 2.29% to 22,870, and the Dow declined 1.65% to 47,457. Technology and consumer discretionary led losses, with Tesla, Nvidia, and Broadcom declining steeply; Disney sank nearly 8% on distribution disputes, while Cisco rose over 4% on upbeat guidance.
Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year at 4.12%, trimming December cut odds to 50%; the dollar eased slightly, gold slipped, and WTI recovered modestly to $59/barrel amid shutdown data gaps and mixed Fed messages, pressuring growth sectors.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s IPC index cooled 1.1% to around 62,500 as global risk-off hit and rate optimism faded; the peso held near 18.33 per dollar, firmer after bouncing from 18.24–18.26 support.
Leaders: Kimberly-Clark de México A, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR B), Industrias Peñoles, Grupo Televisa CPO, Orbia; laggards: Qualitas, Volaris, Grupo Bimbo, Grupo Financiero Banorte, Grupo Carso.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso held steady at around 1,407 wholesale, 1,430 official retail, and 1,415/1,435 blue (near parity with slim premium), reflecting calmer cash markets, tighter liquidity, and reserve management confidence amid a softer DXY.
Equities consolidated near 2.88 million on the S&P Merval after a 3% Thursday pullback, with sovereigns mixed on IMF watch and FX normalization caution.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s peso paused its rally near 3,705 USD/COP, with Colcap equities easing from records around 2,081 amid profit-taking and regional risk fade; softer commodities added mild pressure, though near-shoring flows provided underlying support.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s peso firmed to 929–933 USD/CLP on a softer dollar and steady copper; the IPSA cooled 1.85% to 9,710 after records, driven by profit-taking despite sustained foreign interest in copper-linked exposure.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real weakened to 5.298 USD/BRL, pressured by Brazil’s slowdown—highlighted by -0.3% September retail sales, trimmed 2025 GDP to 2.2%, and IPCA at 4.6%—intersecting U.S. policy uncertainty from Fed caution ahead of December and shutdown data distortions, encouraging safe-haven flows despite a softer DXY; the pair consolidates in R$5.27–5.33, with upside risks from uneven reforms and remittances.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets tumbled as fear dominated and liquidity thinned; Bitcoin slid below $100,000 to $96,800 (-6.6%), Ether to $3,199 (-9.6%), XRP to $2.297 (-7.9%), and Solana to $142.5 (-8.6%), amplified by volatile ETF flows, reduced whale support, and heavy spot selling ($748M BTC, $453M ETH); technicals bearish below key averages unless reclaiming $103,000.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Earnings season underscores resilience amid high rates and foreign dominance on B3. Overseas investors now hold 58.3% of market value — reaching 73% in top stocks — and are driving 30%+ Ibovespa gains year-to-date through liquidity and income-focused flows.
This momentum is rewarding companies with strong governance and punishing those showing instability. Q3 results are diverse, spanning healthcare shocks such as the Hapvida rout, homebuilders like MRV and Direcional, and fuels players such as Ultrapar.
They also reflect retail shifts at Carrefour, fintech performance from PagBank and Inter&Co, and utilities including Copel and Taesa.
Logistics names such as Simpar, Randon, and Vamos appear alongside tech players like Positivo, infrastructure firms including Ecorodovias and Armac, and materials companies such as Eternit and Braskem.
Energy names like Eneva, travel operator CVC, and exchanges such as B3 round out the mix. All of this unfolds amid ongoing steel import pressures and the persistence of the grain boom.
Key Developments
Hapvida, Allos, and MRV&Co Q3 net profits: Hapvida R$338m (+12.7% YoY, EBITDA -17.6% to R$746.4m on cost investments, revenue +6% to R$7.8bn, loss ratio 75.2%); Allos R$126m (+25.6% YoY, EBITDA R$502.4m, revenue +6.6% to R$680m, CAPEX guide R$350–450m, dividends R$242m);
MRV R$111.1m adjusted (MRV core R$204m, revenue R$2.876bn, net debt R$2.49bn Brazil, Resia US$19.3m loss). Stock rout for Hapvida on cash/quality flags; MRV gains on Minha Casa margins.
Copel, Simpar, and Positivo Q3 results: Copel net R$383.1m (-68.5% YoY, revenue +18.7% to R$6.8bn, EBITDA +7.8% to R$1.3bn, leverage 2.8x); Simpar adjusted loss R$119m (revenue +4.8% to R$11.4bn, EBITDA record R$3.1bn, CAPEX R$1.8bn);
Positivo R$1.1m (revenue -1.7% to R$805.6m, EBITDA +1.5% to R$68.1m, net debt -25.9% to R$573.1m, leverage 1.9x). Copel buoyed by volumes; Simpar resilient despite debt; Positivo on corporate demand.
Direcional, Ultrapar, and Randon Q3 profits: Direcional R$230m (+43% YoY, EBITDA R$302m, revenue +27% to R$1.2bn); Ultrapar R$772m (EBITDA R$1.95bn, revenue R$37bn, Ipiranga volumes +1%); Randon R$23.1m (-81% YoY, EBITDA R$478m, revenue +9.9% to R$3.4bn, leverage 4.68x). Direcional via Minha Casa; Ultrapar on fuel enforcement; Randon hit by financing costs.
PagBank Q3 recurring profit R$571m (flat YoY), revenue R$3.4bn, deposits +15% to R$39.4bn, credit +30% to R$4.2bn, ROAE 15.1%, customers +5% to 33.7m; succession: COO Mauad to CEO Jan 1, Sechin to CFO. Steady growth via banking push.
Inter&Co Q3 net R$336m (+39% YoY), ROE 14.2%, loan book +30% on payroll credit; app ecosystem cuts costs. Scale drives profitability.
Carrefour Brazil ownership shift: Diniz family (Península) exits 8.4% stake (~R$5bn) after decade; Saadé heirs (CMA CGM) enter with 4% and board seat via Carrix. Focus on logistics efficiencies for costs.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.57% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.61% | -8.60% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.18% | -11.29% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.14 | +6.45% | +46.17% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 46,040 |
| WTI | 91.75 | +5.67% | +40.61% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 362,852 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,048 | -2.40% | +19.25% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 150,215 |
| SILVER | 57.76 | -3.77% | +47.04% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 33,193 |
| LITHIUM | 68.89 | -0.16% | +58.48% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 111,163 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.15 | +1.34% | +34.79% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 17,952,900 |
| VALE3 | 75.66 | +0.75% | +31.75% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 13,103,800 |
| SUZB3 | 42.39 | -0.63% | -18.07% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,748,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.65 | -1.56% | -4.62% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 3,410,300 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | -1.50% | -14.25% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.72 | 1,755,200 |
| ABEV3 | 15.87 | -1.61% | +16.78% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 12,850,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.43 | -1.10% | +23.52% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 17,265,400 |
| BBDC4 | 18.76 | -1.11% | +18.20% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 13,488,400 |
| BBAS3 | 20.93 | -0.76% | +3.56% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 15,775,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.63 | -1.70% | +16.73% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 28,041,500 |
| WEGE3 | 45.18 | -3.34% | +18.86% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,665,600 |
| PRIO3 | 61.08 | +2.19% | +43.77% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,577,300 |
| RENT3 | 36.99 | -0.40% | +2.07% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,571,800 |
| AZZA3 | 17.07 | -4.16% | -54.01% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.03 | 1,929,500 |
| CSNA3 | 5.34 | -0.74% | -39.00% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 10,293,300 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.82% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,750,100 |
| ENEV3 | 25.64 | -1.27% | +83.27% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,102,500 |
| LREN3 | 13.32 | -1.62% | -24.33% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,292,000 |