Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 13, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today after a pause in the Ibovespa’s record run. Banks are seeking to halt Oi’s bankruptcy to preserve critical telecom services and creditor recoveries.
Trump has signaled potential coffee tariff relief to boost Brazil’s key exports. Gol has delivered a post-restructuring profit on its leaner model. Meanwhile, farm stress and tighter rules have dragged Banco do Brasil’s Q3 earnings sharply lower.
Today’s Brazilian prints include September retail sales at 07:00 AM BRT (consensus: MoM 0.3%, YoY 2.0%) and October auto production and sales at 08:00 AM BRT.
Strong retail data would reinforce the consumption rebound amid cooling inflation, support Selic-cut bets into 2026, and sustain foreign inflows.
Robust auto figures would signal industrial momentum and household demand. However, soft readings could temper the equity bid and weaken BRL carry.
Key global prints steer sentiment:
- 08:30 AM BRT U.S. CPI (MoM cons. prev. 0.3%, YoY prev. 3.0%) and jobless claims; 11 min IEA Monthly Report; all day ECOFIN Meetings.
These matter because hotter U.S. inflation delays Fed easing, strengthens dollar, and caps EM risk-on; dovish claims or soft data fuel commodity relief and BRL strength; IEA supply cues influence Brent and Petrobras pricing; ECOFIN tone sets EUR spill into regional carry.
Economic Agenda for November 13, 2025
Brazil
- 07:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) Cons: 2.0% Prev: 0.4%
- 08:00 AM BRT – Auto Production (MoM) (Oct) Prev: -1.5%
- 08:00 AM BRT – Auto Sales (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 7.9%
Implication: Firm retail/auto = demand resilience, cut conviction, equity support; weak prints = recovery caution, BRL pressure.
Mexico
- No key prints today, but regional spill from U.S. CPI critical for near-shoring narrative and peso carry.
United States
- 08:30 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.2%
- 08:30 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.3%
- 08:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 223K Prev: 218K
- 08:00 AM BRT – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- 10:30 AM BRT – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Implication: Soft inflation/claims + dovish Fed = dollar easing, EM rally; upside surprises prolong hawkish pause, risk-off.
Europe
- 05:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) Cons: 0.7%
- 11 min – IEA Monthly Report
- 11 min – ECB Economic Bulletin
- 05:00 AM BRT – ECOFIN Meetings
Implication: Firm EZ data curbs drag; IEA/ECB signals set oil/EUR path, commodity spill into Brazil.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s retail and auto gauges anchor local momentum—upside keeps post-inflation optimism alive and inflows strong.
U.S. CPI/claims/Fed tone set dollar-commodity rhythm; soft reads prolong EM revival and Ibovespa fuel, while hot data caps gains amid high Selic discipline.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
After 15 straight advances and 12 consecutive record closes, Brazil’s Ibovespa finally exhaled, slipping 0.07% to 157,632.
The move was less a reversal than a reset: traders pared hopes of rapid Selic cuts after Brazil’s central bank reiterated that policy will follow data, not hints. The dollar firmed to R$5.29, reflecting mild risk-off and softer commodities.
Oil did the heaviest lifting on the downside. With the global balance pointing to oversupply into 2026, Brent retreated and dragged Petrobras lower, shaving index points and tempering an otherwise resilient tape.
Banks also leaned on the benchmark as investors braced for Banco do Brasil’s update and the sector’s read-through on credit costs.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday, November 12, 2025. The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% to a second consecutive record high, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% as tech stocks, especially AI-related shares, faced continued valuation concerns.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s stocks pulled back, with the S&P/BMV IPC slipping 1.7% to 63,190 due to profit-taking after records. The peso held near 18.28–18.30 per dollar.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso held the line, trading at around 1,410 pesos wholesale and 1,430 blue, with equities pausing as the S&P Merval up 0.9% to near three million points.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso firmed, USD/COP near 3,705; equities leaned higher with MSCI Colcap around 2,081.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chilean peso firmed to mid-940s USD/CLP; IPSA reached new records above 9,400 on copper strength.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real weakened to 5.2932 USD/BRL, snapping back after five straight declines, pressured by Central Bank’s stern inflation targeting and restrictive Selic stance, softer oil prices amid oversupply outlook, and modest DXY firmness near 99.5 despite U.S. fiscal stabilization.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets steady; Bitcoin held near 103,800, Ethereum around 3,545, XRP roughly 2.52.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Corporate earnings season highlights resilience amid high rates—Gol turns Q3 profit on leaner ops, Trump signals coffee tariff relief aiding exporters, banks (Bradesco, Itaú) fight Oi bankruptcy pause, Banco do Brasil hit by rural stress and provisioning; diverse Q3 results across sectors from banks (BV, Pine), auto distributors (Automob), truck rentals (Vamos), homebuilders (Helbor, Cury), infrastructure (Ecorodovias), materials (Eternit), equipment rentals (Armac), energy (Eneva), travel (CVC), exchange operator (B3), and utilities (Taesa).
Key Developments
Gol Q3 net profit R$248m (vs year-earlier loss), revenue +11.6% to R$5.54bn, recurring EBITDA R$1.63bn, leverage 3.2x on post-Chapter 11 discipline.
Banco do Brasil Q3 adjusted profit R$3.8bn (-60% YoY), ROE 8.4%, hit by farm delinquencies (5.34%) and tighter provisioning; guidance cut.
Bradesco and Itaú seek court pause on Oi bankruptcy, restore recovery plan to avoid service disruptions and slashed recoveries.
Banco Votorantim recurring net profit R$461m, ROE 15%, loan book R$92.6bn (+2.4%), delinquency 4.8%; conservative lending focus.
Banco Pine record profit R$103.6m, ROAE 34.3%, loan book R$17.0bn, NPL 1.3%; niche payroll loans drive returns.
Automob Q3 net loss R$166.6m (vs R$12.6m profit), revenue R$3.46bn, EBITDA R$38.6m; higher costs pressure margins.
Vamos adjusted net profit R$50m (-73% YoY), revenue R$1.53bn (+25%), EBITDA R$895m (+3.7%); fleet costs squeeze profits.
Helbor net profit R$13m (-63% YoY), revenue R$233m (-33%); inventory and debt challenge cash flow.
Cury net profit R$255m (+50% YoY), EBITDA R$340m (+54%), launches R$2bn; affordable housing volumes boost cash.
Ecorodovias net profit R$289.8m (+48.3% YoY), revenue R$1.865bn, EBITDA R$1.486bn (79.7% margin); capex and leverage rise.
Eternit net profit R$18.9m (+1.9% YoY), revenue R$319.3m, EBITDA R$23.5m; tax credits and industrialized volumes support.
Armac net profit R$38.3m (-37% YoY), revenue R$494.5m, EBITDA R$198.3m; better utilization offsets higher expenses.
Eneva net profit R$352m, EBITDA R$1.82bn, cash generation R$1.96bn; thermal dispatch and gas expansion drive resilience.
CVC adjusted net income R$62.5m, EBITDA R$130.5m (34.6% margin), revenue R$376.8m; digital shift aids recovery
B3 recurring net income R$1.25bn, revenue R$2.48bn, EBITDA R$1.73bn; cost control amid lower equity volumes
Taesa regulatory net income R$323m, revenue R$651m, EBITDA R$549m; payouts approved despite higher debt
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.45% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.61% | -8.61% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.19% | -11.30% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 99.73 | +6.02% | +45.57% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 46,223 |
| WTI | 91.57 | +5.46% | +40.34% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 366,052 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,050 | -2.34% | +19.32% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 151,131 |
| SILVER | 57.84 | -3.63% | +47.26% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 33,364 |
| LITHIUM | 68.84 | -0.23% | +58.36% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 116,020 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.09 | +1.20% | +34.45% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 42.98 | 18,981,100 |
| VALE3 | 75.56 | +0.61% | +31.56% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 13,235,500 |
| SUZB3 | 42.38 | -0.66% | -18.14% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,792,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.63 | -1.67% | -4.73% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 3,669,200 |
| SLCE3 | 13.73 | -1.65% | -14.38% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.72 | 1,781,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.88 | -1.55% | +16.78% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 13,503,600 |
| ITUB4 | 42.44 | -1.07% | +23.55% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 17,875,000 |
| BBDC4 | 18.75 | -1.16% | +18.07% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 13,860,400 |
| BBAS3 | 20.90 | -0.90% | +3.46% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 16,046,500 |
| B3SA3 | 15.62 | -1.76% | +16.65% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 32,067,500 |
| WEGE3 | 45.14 | -3.42% | +18.78% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,891,700 |
| PRIO3 | 61.04 | +2.12% | +43.72% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,714,100 |
| RENT3 | 36.93 | -0.57% | +2.01% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,664,700 |
| AZZA3 | 17.08 | -4.10% | -54.07% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.03 | 1,984,700 |
| CSNA3 | 5.31 | -1.30% | -39.22% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.30 | 10,532,200 |
| GGBR4 | 24.20 | +0.58% | +40.13% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,925,800 |
| ENEV3 | 25.71 | -1.00% | +83.56% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,188,700 |
| LREN3 | 13.35 | -1.40% | -24.33% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,787,600 |