Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for May 15, 2025
Brazil’s markets face a pivotal day as domestic and global economic indicators offer critical insights into retail sector performance, inflationary pressures, and global economic growth trends.
These factors are shaping monetary policy expectations and investor confidence in an export-driven economy navigating a fragile U.S.-China trade truce and persistent domestic inflationary pressures.
At 08:00 AM (BRT), Brazil’s Retail Sales for March — both Year-over-Year (previous: 1.5%) and Month-over-Month (previous: 0.5%) — will be released. These figures will gauge the health of a key economic driver and influence investor sentiment amid high interest rates.
Strong growth could signal robust consumer spending, boosting retail and service sectors, while weaker readings may raise concerns about economic momentum.
Globally, at 02:00 AM (BRT), the United Kingdom’s GDP for Q1 — both Quarter-over-Quarter (consensus: 0.6%, previous: 0.1%) and Year-over-Year (previous: 1.5%) — will provide insights into economic growth in a key market for Brazilian exports.
A stronger-than-expected reading could bolster demand for Brazilian commodities, while a miss might temper export optimism. Also, at 02:00 AM (BRT), the UK’s Industrial Production data for March (consensus: -0.6%, previous: 1.5%) will be released.
This report will reflect industrial activity and may impact commodity demand. At 10:00 AM (BRT), BoE MPC Member Dhingra’s speech will offer monetary policy insights, influencing global risk sentiment.
In the Eurozone, at 02:00 AM (BRT), Germany’s WPI for April (consensus: 0.2%, previous: -0.2%) will signal wholesale price pressures, affecting global risk appetite and demand for Brazilian assets.
At 05:00 AM (BRT), Eurozone GDP for Q1 (consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.2%) and Industrial Production for March (consensus: 1.7%, previous: 1.1%) will further shape export demand outlooks.
Speeches by ECB’s Elderson at 03:50 AM (BRT) and De Guindos at 06:15 AM (BRT) will provide monetary policy clarity, impacting Brazilian asset flows.
In the United States, at 08:30 AM (BRT), Core PPI and PPI for April (consensus: 0.3% and 0.2%, previous: -0.1% and -0.4%) will gauge producer price inflation, influencing Fed policy expectations and the Brazilian real.
Retail Sales for April (consensus: 0.0%, previous: 1.4%) at 08:30 AM (BRT) will reflect consumer demand, critical for Brazil’s export markets. Industrial Production for April (consensus: 0.2%, previous: -0.3%) at 09:15 AM (BRT) will signal manufacturing health, impacting commodity demand.
Speeches by Fed Chair Powell at 08:40 AM (BRT) and Vice Chair Barr at 14:05 PM (BRT) will shape global capital flows. At 08:15 AM (BRT), Canada’s Housing Starts for April (consensus: 234.0K, previous: 214.2K) and Manufacturing Sales for March (consensus: -1.8%, previous: 0.2%) at 08:30 AM (BRT) will influence commodity demand trends.
Mexico’s Interest Rate Decision at 15:00 PM (BRT) (previous: 9.00%) will affect emerging market sentiment. Japan’s GDP for Q1 at 19:50 PM (BRT) (consensus: -0.1%, previous: 0.6%) and India’s Trade Balance at 04:00 AM (BRT) (previous: -21.54B) will further guide global trade dynamics.
These releases are crucial for framing Brazil’s economic outlook, trade performance, and monetary policy stance amid global trade dynamics and domestic tightening.
Economic Agenda for May 15, 2025
Brazil
- 08:00 AM – Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 1.5%. Tracks annual retail sector performance, impacting equities and domestic demand expectations.
- 08:00 AM – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.5%. Measures monthly retail activity, a key economic driver, influencing investor sentiment and monetary policy outlooks.
United Kingdom
- 02:00 AM – GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus 0.6%, previous 0.1%. Measures quarterly economic growth, influencing demand for Brazilian exports.
- 02:00 AM – GDP (YoY) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 1.5%. Tracks annual economic growth, impacting global risk sentiment.
- 02:00 AM – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus -0.6%, previous 1.5%. Reflects industrial activity, influencing commodity demand.
- 10:00 AM – BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides monetary policy insights, affecting global markets.
Eurozone
- 02:00 AM – German WPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous -0.2%. Signals wholesale price pressures, influencing global risk appetite and Brazilian asset demand.
- 03:50 AM – ECB’s Elderson Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Offers ECB policy insights, impacting Brazilian asset flows.
- 05:00 AM – GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus 0.4%, previous 0.2%. Measures quarterly economic growth, shaping export demand outlooks.
- 05:00 AM – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 1.7%, previous 1.1%. Tracks industrial activity, impacting commodity demand.
- 06:15 AM – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Clarifies ECB policy stance, influencing markets.
United States
- 08:30 AM – Core PPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.3%, previous -0.1%. Gauges core producer price inflation, influencing Fed policy expectations.
- 08:30 AM – PPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous -0.4%. Tracks producer price trends, impacting the Brazilian real.
- 08:30 AM – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.0%, previous 1.4%. Reflects consumer demand, critical for Brazil’s export markets.
- 08:40 AM – Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Shapes Fed rate expectations, impacting global capital flows.
- 09:15 AM – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous -0.3%. Signals manufacturing health, influencing commodity demand.
- 14:05 PM – Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Clarifies Fed policy stance, affecting global risk appetite.
Canada
- 08:15 AM – Housing Starts (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 234.0K, previous 214.2K. Gauges construction activity, influencing commodity demand.
- 08:30 AM – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus -1.8%, previous 0.2%. Tracks manufacturing activity, impacting trade flows.
Mexico
- 15:00 PM – Interest Rate Decision (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 9.00%. Affects emerging market sentiment and capital flows to Brazil.
Japan
- 19:50 PM – GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus -0.1%, previous 0.6%. Measures quarterly economic growth, influencing Asian commodity demand.
India
- 04:00 AM – Trade Balance (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -21.54B. Reflects trade dynamics, impacting global risk appetite and Brazilian exports.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market index Ibovespa closed down 0.39% at 138,422.84 points on Wednesday, May 14, 2025. Investors took profits following Tuesday’s record-setting rally that pushed the index to an all-time high above 139,000 points.
Trading volume reached R$24.1 billion as market participants adjusted positions during the Ibovespa options expiration day. The index briefly tested resistance near 139,361.58 points before sellers emerged, pushing prices lower throughout the afternoon session.
Corporate earnings reports largely drove individual stock movements. Azul Airlines plummeted 16.08% after reporting a staggering R$1.82 billion quarterly loss.
The airline’s financial leverage ratio deteriorated to 5.2 times from 3.7 a year earlier, raising concerns about its capital structure. Other notable decliners included Raízen, which fell 4.47% following a R$2.5 billion fiscal fourth-quarter loss.
JBS shares dropped 3.67% despite reporting a 77.6% jump in quarterly profit, as investors questioned its proposed dual listing structure. On the positive side, Natura & Co surged 7.10%, extending gains after management promised an end to restructuring costs this year.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks closed mostly higher on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, with the S&P 500 bouncing back to positive territory for the year after fresh data hinted at cooling inflation, adding to investor optimism a day after the United States and China reached a trade deal.
The S&P 500 jumped 0.7% or 42.36 points to close at 5,886.55 points, erasing all its losses for the year and entering positive territory. Consumer discretionary and tech stocks were the biggest gainers.
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) gained 1.3%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) jumped 2.2%. However, the Healthcare Select Sector SPDR (XLV) fell 3%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.6% or 301.74 points, to end at 19,010.19 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.6% or 269.67 points, to finish at 42,140.43 points.
The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.92% to 18.22. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.86-to-1 ratio.
On Nasdaq, a 1.36-to-1 ratio favored advancing issues. A total of 17.81 billion shares were traded, higher than the last 20-session average of 16.51 billion.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real held ground at R$5.63 against the dollar on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, supported by the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy and optimism from the U.S.-China trade truce.
This stability aids import costs but pressures exporters. Today’s Retail Sales data will guide currency outlooks.
Oil Prices
Brent and WTI crude oil prices tumbled on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, as U.S. inventories built and an Iran deal loomed, signaling weaker demand and pressuring Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues.
Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Industrial Production data will provide further demand signals, influencing price outlooks.
Gold Prices
Gold prices plunged to a five-week low on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, as the U.S.-China trade deal dampened safe-haven appeal, challenging Brazil’s mining sector. Today’s German WPI and U.S. PPI data may sway investor sentiment.
Silver Prices
Silver prices tumbled 1.22% on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, as the U.S.-China trade truce reduced safe-haven demand, tempering gains for Brazil’s mining exports in electronics and solar applications. Today’s Eurozone Industrial Production and India Trade Balance will guide demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices retreated on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, as markets navigated mixed technical signals following a trade deal-driven rally, reflecting cautious optimism for Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s Eurozone GDP and U.S. Industrial Production will clarify demand outlooks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin consolidated below $103,000 on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, as traders eyed U.S. economic data, supporting Brazil’s fintech sector, particularly Inter & Co. Today’s U.S. PPI and Fed Chair Powell’s speech may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices held above $100 per ton on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, despite a morning pullback, as easing U.S.-China tensions supported Vale’s revenues. Today’s Japan GDP and India Trade Balance will guide commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s services sector shows resilient growth amid economic headwinds, supporting economic stability and influencing monetary policy expectations.
JP Morgan raised Brazil’s GDP forecast to 2.3% for 2025, driven by agricultural gains, though high interest rates and global trade uncertainties persist. The retail sector faces mixed dynamics, with today’s Retail Sales data critical for assessing consumer demand and economic momentum.
Company Updates
Raízen’s Q1 Loss: Raízen reported a R$2.5 billion ($439 million) loss in Q1 2025, exposing operational crises in its biofuel segment, with shares falling 4.47% as investor confidence waned.
Boa Safra’s Profit Surge: Boa Safra surged on strong seed demand amid Brazil’s farm recovery, posting robust Q1 2025 profit growth, signaling agricultural sector resilience.
Azul’s Profit Challenges: Azul reported a Q1 2025 profit but faced a currency-driven cost surge, with shares dropping 16.08% due to a R$1.82 billion quarterly loss and deteriorating financial leverage.
Santos Brasil’s Profit Growth: Santos Brasil’s Q1 2025 profit surged 34% to R$96.5 million, driven by port expansion, though debt rose to R$386 million, reflecting infrastructure investment.
SLC Agrícola’s Record Profit: SLC Agrícola leveraged farm expansion and yield recovery for a record Q1 2025 profit, reinforcing its position in Brazil’s agribusiness sector.
PagBank’s Steady Growth: PagBank posted steady Q1 2025 profit growth and initiated a landmark dividend payout, signaling confidence in Brazil’s fintech sector.
JBS’s Profit Surge: JBS posted a 77.6% income surge to $513 million in Q1 2025, driven by poultry, though shares fell 3.67% amid concerns over its dual listing structure.
Nubank’s Record Profit: Nubank reported a record Q1 2025 profit but saw shares drop 4.6% due to expansion pressures, reflecting fintech sector challenges.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
187,197.46
+0.46%
64,214.36
-1.38%
10,908.18
-0.56%
2,758,840
-2.15%
2,530.05
-0.75%
59,831.84
-0.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 187,197.46 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 186,340.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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