Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 5, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are gearing up for a day filled with significant economic data releases that are expected to influence market sentiment and policy directions.
Key on the agenda are Brazil’s Industrial Production, Composite PMI, and Services PMI, all of which provide critical insights into the health of the economy.
These indicators are crucial as they reflect industrial activity, business conditions, and service sector performance, respectively, influencing expectations around inflation control measures and monetary policy adjustments.
Internationally, the day is marked by PMI releases from major economies like Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which will offer a global snapshot of service sector activities, potentially affecting investor sentiment and commodity markets.
Also, the U.S. trade balance data will be pivotal, given Brazil’s export dependency, particularly in commodities.
Economic Agenda for February 5, 2025
Brazil
- 09:00 AM – Industrial Production: This release will shed light on the manufacturing sector’s performance, crucial for understanding economic momentum post a challenging Q4 for major firms like Petrobras.
- 10:00 AM – Composite PMI: Offers a comprehensive view of both manufacturing and services sectors, impacting market expectations on economic growth.
- 10:00 AM – Services PMI: Given services dominate Brazil’s GDP, this will be key to gauging consumer demand and economic health.
- 14:30 PM – Foreign Exchange Flow: Important for understanding foreign investment trends and their impact on the Brazilian real.
Germany
- 05:55 AM – Services PMI: Signals the vigor of Germany’s service sector, influencing European economic forecasts.
Eurozone
- 06:00 AM – Composite PMI: A broad measure of business activity across the Eurozone.
- 06:00 AM – Services PMI: Key for assessing the service sector’s contribution to the Eurozone’s economic recovery.
United Kingdom
- 06:30 AM – Composite PMI: Reflects the combined health of UK manufacturing and services.
- 06:30 AM – Services PMI: Crucial for understanding the UK’s economic direction post-Brexit.
United States
- 10:30 AM – Trade Balance: Impacts perceptions of U.S. economic health, directly affecting commodity markets and currencies.
- 11:45 AM – Composite PMI: Provides a snapshot of U.S. business conditions.
- 11:45 AM – Services PMI: Highlights service sector performance, significant due to its large share in the U.S. economy.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa benchmark index fell by 0.65% to close at 125,147 points, marking another day of declines following weaker-than-expected Q4 2024 production data from Petrobras, which saw its shares drop over 1%.
The Brazilian real strengthened, with the dollar falling by 1.75% to R$5.7724, continuing a historic low streak. Petrobras reported a quarterly production decrease of 10.5% year-over-year and 3.4% from the previous quarter, with total sales for 2024 down by 3.1%.
The Central Bank’s hawkish signals on interest rates, aiming for inflation control, added to market tensions.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets rebounded, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq all recording gains, led by tech stocks and positive reactions to President Trump’s tariff delay on Canada and Mexico. The S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, the Dow Jones by 0.3%, and Nasdaq by 1.4%, amidst ongoing trade tensions with China.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
The market was volatile due to trade war fears and sanctions, impacting Brazil’s oil sector. Read more…
Gold Prices
Gold hit new records as investors sought safe havens amid trade war uncertainties. Read more…
Bitcoin Prices
Despite market turbulence, Bitcoin showed resilience, though it stumbled near $100k. Read more…
Companies and Markets
Petrobras: Despite declines in production, it maintained its dominance in the pre-salt region. Read more…
Suzano and JBS: These export-oriented companies saw declines due to the weakening dollar, affecting revenue projections.
Brazil’s Auto Market: The auto sector in Brazil is experiencing a surge in new vehicle registrations, up by 6% year-over-year in January, despite facing economic headwinds. Read more…
Public Debt Surge: Brazil’s federal public debt escalated to R$7.316 trillion ($1.177 trillion) by the end of 2024, marking a 1.55% rise in December alone, and a 12.2% increase from the previous year. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s economic data releases from Brazil and abroad will be pivotal. The focus will be on how these indicators shape expectations around inflation, industrial output, and service sector performance, with global trade tensions still posing a significant risk. Investors will be keen on any signs of economic adjustments or policy shifts in response to these developments.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
64,214.36
-1.38%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,819,323
+0.00%
2,549.16
-0.38%
60,410.88
-0.96%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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