Brazil’s Corn Ethanol Production Set to Double by 2032, Reshaping Biofuel Landscape

Investment bank Citi projects Brazil’s corn ethanol production will nearly double to 16 billion liters by 2032, highlighting the rapid transformation of the country’s biofuel landscape.

Brazil produced 6.3 billion liters of corn ethanol in 2023/24 and expects to reach 9.5 billion liters during the current season. The National Corn Ethanol Union suggests production might exceed early forecasts by 200 million liters, potentially hitting 8.2 billion liters this year.

The sector’s meteoric rise stands out in Brazil’s energy matrix. Production volumes soared from a mere 40 million liters in 2013/14 to over 6 billion liters today, while sugarcane ethanol remained relatively stable around 27-28 billion liters annually.

Infrastructure development drives this expansion across Brazil‘s agricultural heartland. Twenty-two corn ethanol plants currently operate nationwide. Twelve additional facilities undergo construction while nine more received regulatory approval from the National Petroleum Agency.

These plants concentrate heavily in Brazil’s Center-West region. Mato Grosso leads with 11 facilities, followed by Goiás with 6 and smaller numbers in other states. The boom directly connects to Brazil’s “safrinha” second-crop corn production, which doubled over the past decade.

Corn ethanol offers distinct advantages over traditional sugarcane. “Corn’s storage life and lower transportation costs enable production in more remote areas,” Citi noted. This complementary role maintains year-round ethanol supply, particularly during sugarcane’s off-season periods.

Brazil’s Corn Ethanol Industry Expands

The first dedicated corn ethanol plant opened in Lucas do Rio Verde, Mato Grosso in 2017. The industry has since spread rapidly, creating significant economic impact in Brazil’s interior agricultural regions.

Mato Grosso dominates production with 69% of national corn ethanol output. Mato Grosso do Sul follows with 19% while Goiás contributes 11%. By 2025/26, corn ethanol will represent nearly a third of Brazil’s total ethanol production.

This growth strengthens Brazil’s position as the world’s second-largest ethanol producer while adding value to agricultural production in remote regions. The expansion continues without requiring new agricultural land, primarily utilizing existing second-crop corn production.

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