BRAZIL MARKETS · INTEREST RATES
Key Facts
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- What happened Brazil’s main stock index fell 1.5% by 10:49 a.m. ET, after dropping as much as 2.1% earlier.
- Petrobras Its main shares fell 3.9% to R$50.67 (about US$9.22), and the real weakened 1.1% to R$5.50 per dollar.
- What is next Brazil’s central bank announces its interest-rate decision Wednesday 4 November at about 4:30 p.m. ET; the rate is 13.75%.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a US prediction platform, gives 85.5% to no rate change and 14.5% to a cut (11:00 a.m. ET).
Brazil’s stock market slid on Tuesday as its biggest oil company sank. Investors are bracing for an interest-rate decision on Wednesday.
Brazil came back from a holiday and its stock market took a beating. By 10:49 a.m. ET on Tuesday 3 November, the Ibovespa, the benchmark index of the B3 exchange in São Paulo, stood at 165,451 points, down 1.5%.
Petrobras, the state-controlled oil giant, led the slide, and the drop landed a day before the central bank’s interest-rate decision. The slide adds to a tense Brazilian economy story.
Why Is Brazil’s Stock Market Falling Again?
The index is about 19% below its 23 October close of 205,083. It fell 13.9% on Monday 26 October alone and settled at 167,922 on Friday 30 October.
The mood darkened after the central bank’s latest weekly Focus survey, a poll of about 140 institutions such as banks and funds. They now expect inflation of 5.22% for 2026 and growth of just 1.76%.
The same institutions see the dollar at R$5.34 at the end of 2026, up from R$5.07 in the 29 October reading. They expect the policy rate to end the year at 13.50%.
The real, Brazil’s currency, weakened to about R$5.50 per dollar from R$5.44 on Friday, as shown in our real-to-dollar guide.
What Is Hitting Petrobras?
Petrobras’s most traded shares closed at R$52.71 on Friday. By 10:47 a.m. ET they traded at R$50.67 (about US$9.22 at the spot rate of R$5.50), down 3.9%, after touching R$49.15, a loss of 6.8%.
In New York, EWZ, the iShares fund that holds Brazilian stocks, lost 1.3% to US$31.73 by 10:49 a.m. ET.We did not find a company announcement that explains the move. Market reports offer different reasons, including weaker crude oil and broader selling of Brazilian assets.
Live Company IntelligencePetroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR — the full investor dossier
What Will the Central Bank Do on Wednesday?
The central bank’s rate committee, known as Copom, announces its decision on the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, Wednesday at about 4:30 p.m. ET.The Selic stands at 13.75%. The 105 institutions that updated their Focus forecasts most recently see no change this week, while the median of all 139 respondents is a cut to 13.50%, as the Selic guide explains.A hold would match what Polymarket traders expect.
A cut would surprise them.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, traders gave 85.5% to no change in the Selic in November and 14.5% to a quarter-point cut. About US$137,321 has been traded on the market (3 November, 11:00 a.m. ET).
These prices are bets, not polls. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Dollar investors in Brazilian shares lose twice when stocks and the real fall together, as EWZ holders saw on Tuesday morning. Travellers gain: a dollar buys about 1% more reais than on Friday.
Exporters paid in dollars are the quiet winners of a weaker real. Importers and companies with dollar debt lose.
What Is Not Known
These are mid-session numbers, so closing levels may differ. We also cannot say how the committee will vote.
What to Watch Next
Wednesday 4 November: the Copom decision at about 4:30 p.m. ET.
The next Focus survey follows Monday 9 November. For the index itself, see our Ibovespa guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Brazil’s stock market fall on 3 November?
The Ibovespa fell about 1.5% by mid-morning in New York as Petrobras shares dropped 3.9% and the Focus survey turned gloomier. The rate decision comes Wednesday.
When is the next Brazil interest-rate decision?
Brazil’s central bank announces its Selic decision on Wednesday 4 November at about 4:30 p.m. ET. The rate is now 13.75%, and Polymarket traders give 85.5% to no change.
Sources: RT market data (B3 share prices and dollar rate, 3 November 2026); Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey and Copom calendar; Polymarket (accessed 3 November 2026, 11:00 a.m. ET).
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff: date, poll closing times and when results start. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.