BRAZIL · MARKETS
Published Thursday, 29 October, 4:45 p.m. ET · Source: B3, Brazil’s central bank, Polymarket
Key Facts
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a prediction market, gives 73.3% to no change in Brazil’s Selic benchmark rate in November, 26.0% to a quarter-point cut (29 October, 4:43 p.m. ET).
- What happened Brazil’s main stock index fell 1.16% to 169,029, a fourth straight drop and its lowest close since 20 August.
- The real The real weakened to about 5.39 per dollar, or a little over 18 US cents each.
- Why it matters Traders cite fiscal worries after President Lula’s re-election, and New York’s Brazil fund fell 1.4%.
- What to watch Copom, the central bank’s rate panel, meets 3 and 4 November; the Selic rate is 13.75%.
Brazil’s stock market has not caught its breath since the election. On Thursday it fell for a fourth day, and the currency slid with it.
Brazil Stocks Sink for a Fourth Day
The Ibovespa, the benchmark index of the São Paulo exchange B3, fell 1.16% to 169,029 points on Thursday, 29 October. It was the fourth straight loss and the lowest close since 20 August, when the index finished at 167,927.
Four sessions have taken the index 17.6% below its 23 October close of 205,083. That was the last session before President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election on 25 October.
Most of the damage came on Monday 26 October, when the index fell 13.88%. Investors have been repricing the Brazilian economy and its stock market ever since.
The Real Gives Back More Ground
The real weakened about 0.8% on the day to roughly 5.39 per dollar. That means one real buys a little over 18 US cents.
A weaker real hurts anyone who owns Brazilian assets in dollars, because gains in reais shrink when converted. It also makes a trip to Brazil cheaper for an American, and it makes imports dearer for Brazilians.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.16%
169,029.02
-1.16%
69,182.39
-0.76%
10,545.23
-1.24%
2,848,945
—
2,489.93
-0.63%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 169,029.02 | -1.16% | +19.56% | 171,006.10 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 53.31 | -1.06% | +77.70% | 53.88 | 53.70 | 52.83 | 43,239,500 |
| VALE3 | 62.88 | -2.33% | +1.98% | 64.38 | 64.43 | 62.80 | 24,652,300 |
| ITUB4 | 41.42 | -0.67% | +11.30% | 41.70 | 42.60 | 41.15 | 28,160,700 |
| BBDC4 | 15.69 | -1.63% | -13.88% | 15.95 | 16.30 | 15.67 | 65,766,400 |
| BBAS3 | 17.59 | +0.69% | -15.59% | 17.47 | 18.31 | 17.51 | 67,844,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.27 | +1.33% | +21.71% | 15.07 | 15.78 | 15.20 | 75,282,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.40 | +0.20% | +26.75% | 15.37 | 15.68 | 15.31 | 27,307,400 |
| WEGE3 | 45.78 | +2.81% | +10.06% | 44.53 | 47.08 | 45.06 | 9,823,200 |
| PRIO3 | 69.21 | -2.71% | +87.14% | 71.14 | 70.98 | 69.15 | 6,663,200 |
| SUZB3 | 47.14 | -0.55% | -3.79% | 47.40 | 47.84 | 46.10 | 7,151,800 |
| RENT3 | 31.14 | -1.67% | -20.73% | 31.67 | 32.68 | 31.02 | 19,092,400 |
| AZZA3 | 16.72 | +1.15% | -42.24% | 16.53 | 17.42 | 16.72 | 4,875,400 |
| CSNA3 | 4.76 | -4.99% | -47.09% | 5.01 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 14,327,900 |
| GGBR4 | 24.87 | -2.28% | +36.28% | 25.45 | 26.20 | 24.79 | 7,507,900 |
| ENEV3 | 26.79 | +0.45% | +49.78% | 26.67 | 27.35 | 26.30 | 12,263,000 |
Banks and Miners Led the Slide
Bradesco, one of Brazil’s largest private banks, fell 3.54% in São Paulo. Vale, the iron-ore miner, lost 2.17%, and state-controlled Banco do Brasil lost 1.97%.
Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, held up better, down 0.59%. Itaú Unibanco, another large private bank, slipped 0.60%.
Why Investors Are Nervous
Traders pointed to two causes on Thursday: weak foreign markets and worry about Brazil’s fiscal outlook. Fiscal means how much the government spends, taxes and borrows.
The next test is the central bank: Copom meets on 3 and 4 November. The Selic, Brazil’s benchmark rate, was set at 13.75% on 16 September; see our Selic guide.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a platform where users trade real money on outcomes, priced no change in the Selic in November at 73.3% (29 October, 4:43 p.m. ET). A 25-basis-point (quarter-point) cut stood at 26.0% with about US$119,000 traded, and these prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
US holders felt it in dollars. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), a New York-listed fund that tracks Brazilian shares, fell 1.43% to US$33.14.
Vale’s New York shares fell 2.53% to US$11.18, and Petrobras’ fell 0.59% to US$21.90. Both trade as American depositary receipts, certificates that let US investors hold foreign shares.
Earlier reports cover the sell-off in detail: Brazil Stocks Lose US$133 Billion in a Day and Brazil Stocks Fall 2.68% as Banks Slide. More is on the Brazil hub.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the government will set out a spending plan before Copom meets. Nor is it known whether the index has found a floor or will test its August low again.
The figures here are Thursday’s closing levels from exchange-linked data. Official end-of-day values from B3 may differ slightly after final adjustments.
Background: Brazil Runoff: Lula Won 51.8%, Polls Had Flávio Ahead.
Background: Brazil Tax Reform 2026 Replaces Five Taxes With Two VATs.
Frequently Asked Questions
How far has Brazil’s stock market fallen since the election?
The Ibovespa closed 17.6% below its 23 October level after four straight losses, ending Thursday at 169,029. Most of the fall came on 26 October.
Why is the Brazilian real weakening?
Traders cite worry about government spending and borrowing after President Lula’s re-election. The real weakened to roughly 5.39 per dollar on Thursday.
Sources: B3, the São Paulo stock exchange, Ibovespa closing data, 29 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, the central bank, Copom calendar; Polymarket market data (accessed 29 October 2026, 4:43 p.m. ET); RT market data, a market-data provider, for ADRs, ETFs and exchange rates.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff start time and results schedule. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.