BRAZIL · INTEREST RATES · PREDICTION MARKETS
Published Monday, 26 October 2026, 5:30 a.m. ET · Source: Central Bank of Brazil, Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Kalshi market data
US-regulated traders now bet that Brazil’s central bank has finished cutting interest rates this year, a sharp turn in one day.
Key Facts
- —Prediction markets Kalshi (US exchange): exactly 5 Brazil rate cuts in 2026 at 67%, up 57 points in 24 hours (26 October, 5:25 a.m. ET).
- —Trigger No single trigger reported; one economist expects a pause after President Lula’s runoff win.
- —Next date Brazil’s rate-setting committee decides on 4 November.
- —Volume About 20,800 contracts traded in 24 hours, so the market is thinly traded.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil woke up to a re-elected president and a new bet on its interest rates. Overnight, traders on Kalshi flipped from expecting more rate cuts to expecting none.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC (the US derivatives regulator). It prices exactly five Brazilian rate cuts in 2026 at 67%, up 57 points in 24 hours from about 10%.
It matters in the United States because the rate drives what Brazilian bonds, the Brazilian real and business loans pay. The central bank’s benchmark rate, the Selic, is 13.75% a year, and a pause would keep it there into 2027.
In plain English
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank.
Copom is the central bank committee that votes on the Selic about every six weeks.
A prediction market is an exchange where people bet real money on events, and the price shows the crowd’s implied chance.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi asks how many times the Central Bank of Brazil will cut its rate in 2026. Each line pays US$1 per contract if its count is right, and the rules count the cuts for the whole year.
- Exactly 5 cuts: 67%, up 57 points in 24 hours; about 7,160 contracts traded in 24 hours.
- 7 or more cuts: 26%, down 34 points; about 5,790 contracts traded in 24 hours.
- Exactly 6 cuts: 11%, down 14 points; about 7,860 contracts traded in 24 hours.
The three live lines have traded 172,034 contracts in total, about 20,800 of them in the past 24 hours. That is thinly traded, and the three prices add up to 104%, so no single figure should be read as exact.
Copom’s 16 September decision was its fifth cut in a row. If five cuts are already counted, “exactly 5” means no cut at the November or December meeting, “6” means one more and “7 or more” means two.
Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, did not respond when we read its data, so this report uses Kalshi alone. These prices are bets, not polls and not a forecast by this newsroom.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them. Live prices are on our Prediction Markets page.
Why the Odds Moved
No single trigger was reported, and the traders have not said what drove the move. We can document the timing and one economist’s view.
On Sunday, 25 October, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s official vote counter, announced that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected. He won 64,256,232 votes, 51.79% of valid votes, against 48.21% for senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Our report on what the result means covers the vote.
Copom had already sounded careful. Its 16 September statement said the external environment remained uncertain because of undefined armed conflicts in the Middle East.
A survey of economists run by the central bank, called Focus, pointed the other way on 13 October. It had them expecting a 0.25-point cut on 4 November and another in December, which would be seven cuts for the year.
On 26 October, economist Bruno Corano said he sees a “high probability” that the central bank interrupts its cutting cycle on 4 November. He cited a weaker Brazilian real, the currency, and inflation pressure.
That is one voice, and we found no second source. Our reading, not a claim from any source: a few large orders in a small market could also have moved the price.
What It Means for US Readers
For investors, the Selic decides how much Brazilian government bonds pay and how costly credit is for Brazilian companies. A pause would keep borrowing costs high for Brazilian companies that carry debt.
The Brazilian real tends to hold up when rates stay high. That is our analysis, and it is one reason a pause bet matters to anyone who travels to Brazil or holds Brazilian assets.
The test comes soon. Copom meets on 3 and 4 November and announces its decision on 4 November. See also our Brazil page and the Latin America odds page.
What Is Not Known
It is not known why the price moved so far in one day. It is also not known whether Copom will cut on 4 November, since the committee has not said so.
We do not yet have the Focus survey due on 26 October, which may show whether economists have changed their view. A thin market can reverse as quickly as it jumped.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are prediction markets saying about Brazil’s interest rates?
Kalshi prices exactly five Brazilian rate cuts in 2026 at 67% as of 26 October, 5:25 a.m. ET, up 57 points in 24 hours. Copom has already cut five times, so that is a bet on no further cut.
Will Brazil’s central bank cut rates on 4 November?
That is not decided. Copom announces its decision on 4 November, and economists surveyed on 13 October expected a 0.25-point cut, while one economist now expects a pause.
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil, Copom statements · Superior Electoral Court, 2026 runoff result · statements by economist Bruno Corano, 26 October 2026 · Kalshi public market data (read 26 October 2026, 5:25 a.m. ET).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief