Analysis: Why are evangelicals in Brazil so crucial for the October presidential election?

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Although the presidential campaign in Brazil has not yet begun, candidates are already trying to seduce the evangelical sector, which played a vital role in Jair Bolsonaro’s election in 2018 and is becoming increasingly important, according to experts.

On one side is Bolsonaro, the country’s current president, seeking re-election on the promise of continuing to defend Christian values.

According to Bolsonaro, his government is one that “proudly says it believes in God, that defends the Brazilian family.” He recently fulfilled his promise and appointed André Mendonça, a “terribly evangelical” judge, as a member of Brazil’s Supreme Court.

On the other hand, the Workers’ Party (PT), of which Lula da Silva is a member, will publish a podcast of interviews of interest only to evangelicals next month. This project is part of a strategy developed by Paulo Marcelo Schallenberger, a pastor who has advised Lula on overcoming this sector’s distrust of the party.

Former Lava Jato anti-corruption judge Sergio Moro, who is in third place in the polls as the third presidential candidate, has also pledged before religious leaders to remain faithful to 14 principles, including the fight against abortion.

According to political scientist André Cesar of the consulting firm Hold, “the candidates’ movements show the importance of the evangelical market for politics.” In Brazil, evangelicals make up nearly one-third of the population, about 70 million people. According to some projections, they could surpass Catholics within a decade in the country with the largest number of adherents to that religion.

BOLSONARO’S MAIN BASTION

Despite the erosion that Bolsonaro has suffered due to a never-tiring hostile press and a constant battle with the leftist-allied supreme court, the religious sector remains the president’s most important bastion.

According to a PoderData poll conducted this month, 44% of them would vote for him in the first round on October 2, while 32% would be inclined to vote for Lula.

Polls are not to be trusted in Brazil, however. The country is too corrupt, and the polling companies are practically all allied with the leftist parties and throw so-called poll results on the market in an almost bi-weekly rhythm in which the ex-convict Lula da Silva always wins to manipulate the Brazilians.

However, according to other polls, this time more from the right, the voting intention between Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva is much closer.

In the 2018 presidential election, the religious vote was decisive in favor of Bolsonaro. According to polls, in the runoff between Bolsonaro and then PT candidate Fernando Haddad, 70% favored the current president, who is Catholic but married to an evangelical and knew how to appeal to that constituency.

During his campaign, Bolsonaro accused the PT of promoting the sexualization of children and distributing in schools an alleged “kit” that teaches how to be homosexual, which was classified as so-called misinformation by the Supreme Electoral Court, which was also hostile.

When it comes to Bolsonaro, neither the Supreme Electoral Court nor the Federal Supreme Court can be trusted. Quite the contrary. Both are activists, politicized, and declared enemies of the sitting president.

Bolsonaro appointed evangelicals to head ministries during his presidential term, such as Pastor Damares Alves, who heads the Human Rights Department.

According to Juliano Spyer, anthropologist and author of the book “Povo de Deus” (God’s People), considered an X-ray of Brazilian evangelicals, Bolsonaro “shares the same values with evangelicals on homosexuality, abortion, and the importance of the traditional family. He is not the ideal candidate, but he is the possible candidate.”

A QUESTION OF VALUES

For Sóstenes Cavalcante, federal deputy and leader of the powerful Evangelical Parliamentary Front, the majority will vote for Bolsonaro again, despite the economic hardships faced by some evangelical Brazilians.

“With this government, we didn’t have to fight against the violation of our values,” said Cavalcante, an ally of Bolsonaro.

At the same time, the priest acknowledged that Lula was in the lead in the presidential race according to official polls, which could be reversed if Bolsonaro took measures to ease the economic burden. However, he pointed out that “the evangelical sector is guided by values, even in a crisis,” therefore, a majority will vote for the conservative candidate.

According to Spyer, Bolsonaro has “completely embraced Christianity,” and thanks to that, “evangelicals have never had as much space as they do now. The next presidents will have to start from this reality.”