BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What is happening Lula’s government plan proposes a federal Ministry of Public Security, which he has said will follow Senate approval of a constitutional security amendment.
- —Why it matters Brazil’s gangs PCC and Comando Vermelho were designated terrorist organisations by the United States, with the decision signed in May 2026.
- —The numbers The rate of intentional violent deaths fell 8.2% to 19.1 per 100,000 in 2025, the lowest since 2012; the amendment needs 49 of 81 senators.
- —Who is who Lula is Brazil’s re-elected president; Davi Alcolumbre, the Senate president, set the vote on the security amendment, known as PEC 18/2025, for 3 November.
- —What to watch The Senate vote on Tuesday, 3 November, at 4 p.m. in Brasília, and whether Lula names a security minister before his term starts on 5 January 2027.
- —What it means for you US readers should watch gang and sanctions cooperation with Brazil; no travel rule or visa change has been announced.
Brazil’s re-elected president wants a federal ministry to lead the fight against organised crime. Its creation depends on a Senate vote due on Tuesday.
Brazil’s re-elected president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, plans a new federal Ministry of Public Security for his fourth term. His government plan says it would coordinate the fight against organised crime with states and cities.
The ministry depends on the Senate approving a constitutional amendment on security, with a vote set for Tuesday, 3 November. Lula said in February he would create it right after Congress approves the amendment.
Lula won the runoff on Sunday, 25 October, with 51.79% of valid votes, and his fourth term starts on 5 January 2027. Security policy now sits inside the Ministry of Justice and Public Security.
What Lula Has Said and Planned
Lula said on Friday, 6 February 2026, that a ministry would follow approval of the amendment. “If Congress approves the Public Security PEC, we will create a ministry right after,” he said in a television interview.
PEC is the Portuguese abbreviation for a proposed constitutional amendment. Lula said this one defines the federal government’s role in security.
His 2026 government plan also proposes the ministry, but the summary reviewed does not tie it to the amendment. It promises to choke gang finances, fight arms trafficking and strengthen prison security.
In Plain English
- —PEC 18/2025 The security amendment now before the Senate. It reorganises who does what in security among federal, state and local governments.
- —Susp The Unified Public Security System, a framework to link federal, state and local police. The amendment would write it into the Constitution.
- —Ministry of Public Security A proposed federal ministry that would coordinate security policy with states and cities. It does not exist yet.
The Amendment the Ministry Waits On
The Senate scheduled the vote on PEC 18/2025 for Tuesday, 3 November, at 4 p.m. in Brasília. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre set the date on Friday, 30 October.
The text writes the Unified Public Security System into the Constitution and adds funding. It also sets harsher penalties for leaders and members of gangs, militias and paramilitary groups.
Those penalties include maximum-security prison, limits on shorter sentences and seizure of criminal assets without compensation. The Senate’s lead drafter, Senator Rogério Carvalho of the Workers’ Party, kept 10% of the pre-salt oil fund’s surplus for security.
A constitutional amendment needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two rounds. The Senate waived the usual waiting sessions on 14 October.
Five floor amendments are pending, two of them on lowering the age of criminal responsibility. Alcolumbre pulled the vote on 15 October to avoid a rushed discussion.
The Crime Numbers Behind the Push
The Brazilian Forum on Public Security, a research group, counted 40,775 intentional violent deaths in 2025. Its 2026 yearbook says the rate of 19.1 per 100,000 people is the lowest since 2012.
The rate fell 8.2% from 2024, the yearbook shows. It also notes record police lethality, a sign that falling homicides are not the whole picture.
The US Angle
The United States named Brazil’s gangs Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho foreign terrorist organisations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed it on 28 May 2026, and it took effect on 5 June.
A federal security ministry could give Washington one Brazilian counterpart on gang cases. No US-Brazil arrangement of that kind has been announced.
What It Means for You
Investors should watch the amendment’s funding rules, since security spending competes with other budget lines. The 10% pre-salt fund share is one source the Senate text keeps.
US companies and officials dealing with Brazilian counterparties on crime, arms or financial-crime cases may see a new lead agency. Nothing has been announced yet.
Nothing in the plan changes visas, flights or entry rules, so US travellers need take no action. No travel restriction has been announced.
Related reports are Brazil Senate Sets Security Amendment Vote and Lula Starts Building His Next Cabinet. More is on the Brazil hub, in Brazil Power and Money, in Brazil Explained and in the guide to Brasília.
What Is Not Known
No minister or date has been announced, and no post-runoff statement calling security his top priority was found. Only speculation names possible candidates.
Any amendment approved on the floor would send the text back to the Chamber of Deputies, Alcolumbre said on 15 October. Whether 49 senators will back it on Tuesday is also open.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Lula creating a Ministry of Public Security?
His government plan proposes it, and he said in February he would create it after Congress approves the amendment. No decree, date or minister exists yet.
When does the Senate vote on the security amendment?
The vote on PEC 18/2025 is set for Tuesday, 3 November, at 4 p.m. in Brasília. It needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two rounds.
When does Lula’s fourth term start?
It starts on 5 January 2027. He won the runoff on Sunday, 25 October 2026, with 51.79% of valid votes.
Has violence in Brazil fallen?
A research group counted 40,775 intentional violent deaths in 2025, and the rate was the lowest since 2012. The same yearbook also notes record police lethality.
Sources: Government of Brazil, record of Lula’s interview of 6 February 2026; Lula’s 2026 government plan, public security chapter; Federal Senate, notice of the 3 November vote on PEC 18/2025, 30 October 2026, committee vote, 14 October 2026, and withdrawal from the agenda, 15 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), runoff result, 25 October 2026; Brazilian Forum on Public Security, Anuário Brasileiro de Segurança Pública 2026; US Department of State, Foreign Terrorist Organization designation notice, Federal Register 2026-11323; accessed 2 November 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff date. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.