Rio Times Markets · Brazil
Brazil’s central bank paused its rate cuts on 4 November 2026 and left its benchmark interest rate at 13.75%, exactly as analysts expected.
Key Facts
- •What Brazil’s central bank held its Selic benchmark rate at 13.75% on 4 November 2026.
- •Forecast Analysts expected 13.75%, so there was no surprise; the rate was cut to 13.75% in September.
- •Jobs Brazil added 121,310 net formal jobs in September, below the 171,000 forecast and August’s 165,827.
- •Prediction markets Polymarket, a prediction market, gives 75.0% to no change in December (5 Nov 2026, 1:31 a.m. ET).
- •Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
What The Central Bank Decided
Brazil’s central bank kept the Selic, its benchmark interest rate, at 13.75% on 4 November 2026. The rate has stood at that level since the September meeting, and analysts had forecast no change.
The Selic is the rate that sets the cost of borrowing across Brazil, from mortgages to company loans. A hold means money stays expensive for Brazilian households and firms.
Why The Jobs Data Matters
Brazil’s Labour Ministry counts net formal jobs each month in an employment registry called Caged. For September it showed 121,310 net new formal jobs, down from 165,827 in August and below the forecast of 171,000. That is a fall of about 27% from the previous reading.
Slower hiring is one sign that high interest rates are cooling the economy. Weaker demand for workers can, over time, ease wage and price pressure.
What A Hold Means For Savers And Borrowers
At 13.75%, Brazilian government bonds and savings products linked to the Selic still pay high returns. That attracts foreign investors, including those who hold Brazilian bonds through US funds.
For borrowers, a loan tied to the Selic stays costly. A company planning to expand, or a family buying a home, still faces high monthly payments.
What Would Change The Path
A rebound in hiring above the 171,000 forecast would argue for caution on further cuts. Another soft month, at or below 121,310, would strengthen the case for lowering the rate at a later meeting.
The central bank’s next and last scheduled meeting of 2026 is in December, where a further 0.25 percentage point cut would confirm a slower-hiring story. Prediction-market traders currently lean towards another hold at 75.0%.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket traders, who bet real money on a prediction market, give 75.0% to no change at Brazil’s December decision, 15.0% to a 25 basis point cut and 5.1% to a 25 basis point rise, with US$54,666 traded (5 November 2026, 1:31 a.m. ET). Prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known Yet
The central bank’s written explanation and any guidance on the timing of future cuts were not available to us at the time of writing. It is also unclear whether September’s slower hiring is a lasting trend.
Sources: Brazil central bank (Banco Central do Brasil) Copom decision of 4 November 2026 and Labour Ministry Caged net formal jobs data for September 2026, with forecasts and earlier values from the RT economic calendar; Polymarket (5 November 2026). Earlier decision: Brazil Cuts Selic Rate to 13.75%. This is news, not investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Brazil’s central bank decide in November 2026?
It held the Selic benchmark rate at 13.75% on 4 November 2026. That matched the analyst forecast.
How many jobs did Brazil add in September 2026?
Brazil added 121,310 net formal jobs, down from 165,827 in August. Analysts had expected 171,000.
What is the Selic rate?
It is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank’s monetary policy committee, known as Copom. It guides borrowing costs across the economy.
What do prediction markets expect next?
Polymarket traders give 75.0% to no change at the December decision. These prices are bets, not official forecasts.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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