BRAZIL · MARKETS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, re-elected President Lula, 81, on Sunday 25 October 2026.
- What happened Foreigners pulled R$8.4 billion (US$1.5 billion) from the stock exchange between 26 October and 3 November.
- The market The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, fell 18.3% from 22 October to 4 November.
- What next Flow data after 3 November are not yet out, so the trend is unclear.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 74.2 points (November 2026 edition).
Foreign investors pulled more than R$8.4 billion (about US$1.5 billion at 5.49 reais per dollar) out of Brazil’s stock exchange after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election. The money left between Monday 26 October and Tuesday 3 November 2026, the latest day for which flow data exist.
For US readers, the exit hits anyone who holds Brazil funds or New York-listed shares of Brazilian companies. It also tests whether Lula’s economic team can win back trust before more money follows.
What Happened
Selling began on Thursday 22 October, three days before the runoff, when polls showed Lula’s lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and a candidate of the conservative Liberal Party, narrowing. Counting from that day, foreigners sold R$12.4 billion (about US$2.3 billion) in eight straight sessions.
Brazilian institutional investors, such as pension and mutual funds, also sold about R$4.8 billion (about US$0.9 billion) between 26 October and 3 November. Added to the foreigners’ R$12.4 billion since 22 October, outflows from the exchange exceed R$17 billion (about US$3.1 billion).
BTG Pactual, a Brazilian investment bank, wrote that foreigners sold about R$4 billion (about US$0.7 billion) in the week before the runoff. Its analysts say the selling after Lula’s win continued the trend that began that week.
How Hard the Market Fell
The Ibovespa, the index of Brazil’s biggest listed companies, fell 13.88% on Monday 26 October, the third-largest one-day drop since 2000. B3, the São Paulo stock exchange, halted trading for 30 minutes at the open, the first use of that automatic brake since the Covid-19 crash of 2020.
After trading reopened, the index dropped as far as 17.34% before closing down 13.88%. From Thursday 22 October to Wednesday 4 November it lost 18.3% in total.
In October as a whole the index fell 9.9% in reais and 14.3% in US dollars, while the dollar gained 7.1% against the real. Long-term interest rates rose above 15.3% a year, a sign of doubt about the government’s commitment to balanced public accounts.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.57%
166,608.52
-0.57%
70,819.80
+0.91%
10,465.26
-1.52%
2,848,945
—
2,471.38
-1.40%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 166,608.52 | -0.57% | +8.78% | 167,563.47 | 168,994 | 166,249 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.49 | +0.58% | +1.80% | 5.46 | 5.50 | 5.42 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 46.49 | -1.34% | +50.70% | 47.12 | 48.04 | 46.33 | 34,767,200 |
| VALE3 | 62.96 | +0.98% | -4.26% | 62.35 | 63.16 | 62.15 | 16,177,400 |
| ITUB4 | 39.87 | +0.40% | +2.31% | 39.71 | 40.04 | 39.33 | 20,336,400 |
| BBDC4 | 13.87 | -1.35% | -26.24% | 14.06 | 14.15 | 13.72 | 52,723,500 |
| BBAS3 | 16.48 | -0.06% | -27.11% | 16.49 | 16.71 | 16.34 | 24,235,600 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.28% | +8.03% | 14.30 | 14.44 | 14.04 | 17,998,300 |
| ABEV3 | 15.47 | +1.44% | +17.30% | 15.25 | 15.48 | 15.13 | 35,003,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.93 | -4.24% | +10.16% | 50.05 | 49.93 | 47.65 | 10,954,900 |
| PRIO3 | 62.70 | +0.90% | +65.56% | 62.14 | 64.44 | 61.93 | 9,387,100 |
| SUZB3 | 52.07 | -0.53% | +6.48% | 52.35 | 52.44 | 51.15 | 5,709,300 |
| RENT3 | 29.33 | -0.44% | -29.47% | 29.46 | 29.71 | 28.91 | 9,841,200 |
| AZZA3 | 14.23 | +1.86% | -51.07% | 13.97 | 14.62 | 13.92 | 2,587,200 |
| CSNA3 | 4.14 | +1.47% | -52.58% | 4.08 | 4.29 | 4.01 | 16,658,300 |
| GGBR4 | 23.94 | -3.78% | +25.35% | 24.88 | 25.14 | 23.83 | 14,555,700 |
| ENEV3 | 26.45 | +0.69% | +39.95% | 26.27 | 26.76 | 26.01 | 8,356,200 |
A Month That Still Ended in Net Inflows
Foreign money had rushed in earlier in October, with a single-day inflow of R$10.06 billion (about US$1.8 billion) on Monday 5 October, the first business day after the first round. Because of that inflow, October still closed with a net foreign balance of R$8.6 billion (about US$1.6 billion).
The selling since 22 October has not yet erased those gains. XP Investimentos, a large Brazilian brokerage, cut its view on Brazilian stocks from positive to neutral in its November strategy report.
XP puts the Ibovespa‘s fair value at 200,000 points at the end of 2027, an upside of 19% that it says only matches expected returns on local bonds. It also warns of rising inflation and rising interest rates together, the toughest mix for Brazilian stocks since 2002.
What It Means for You
If you own a Brazil-focused fund or American depositary receipts (ADRs, shares of Brazilian companies that trade in dollars in the United States), this selling explains the recent drop in your holdings. A weaker real also cuts the dollar value of Brazilian company profits.
The real traded near 5.48 per dollar on Thursday 5 November, against 4.98 on Friday 23 October, according to RT, a financial-data provider. US visitors get more reais for their dollars, while Brazilians pay more for imports and dollar debts.
What Is Not Known
Flow data after Tuesday 3 November are not yet available, so it is unknown whether foreigners are still selling or starting to return. Wednesday’s 1.23% rise in the Ibovespa was its first gain after six sessions, and one day does not make a trend.
It is also unclear what fiscal plan Lula will present, since his economic team is still debating options. Our reports on the market crash after the vote and the interest rate cap idea give more background.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How Much Did Foreign Investors Pull From Brazilian Stocks?
More than R$8.4 billion (about US$1.5 billion) left between 26 October and 3 November 2026, according to B3 flow data. Counting from 22 October, the total is R$12.4 billion (about US$2.3 billion).
Why Are Foreign Investors Selling Brazilian Shares?
They reacted to Lula’s re-election and to doubts about how his government will control its debt. Interest rates and the dollar rose sharply at the same time.
What Happened to Brazil’s Main Stock Index?
The Ibovespa fell 13.88% on Monday 26 October, its third-largest one-day drop since 2000. It was down 18.3% from 22 October to 4 November.
What Is an ADR?
An American depositary receipt is a share of a foreign company that trades in US dollars on a US exchange. Many large Brazilian companies have them, so US investors feel Brazil’s market moves directly.
Sources: B3, the São Paulo stock exchange, trading and foreign investor flow data, to 3 November 2026; BTG Pactual research report on foreign flows, November 2026; XP Investimentos, strategy report “Raio-XP”, November 2026; RT, a financial-data provider, exchange-rate data (USD/BRL), 3 and 5 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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