Brazil elections 2022: Bolsonaro leads in regions with strong agriculture and livestock production

Of the three regions with the highest percentage of GVA (gross production value), a type of agricultural GDP, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is numerically ahead in two: center-west (1st) and south (3rd).

However, the difference is within the margin of error for each region. In the Southeast (2nd), former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is said to lead outside the margin of error.

The Southeast is the region with the largest share of the Brazilian population: 42.1%. The northeast has 27.8%. Lula da Silva is said to lead in both areas.

The center-west and south regions have a combined 21.8 %. The north has 8.3 %. The leader in these three regions is Bolsonaro. The data came from the last census in 2010.

The West and South Central have the highest “agricultural GDP” per capita. Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Paraná are at the top.

The agricultural economy’s estimated VBP (gross output value) reached R$1.22 trillion (US$230 billion) in July, 0.3% higher than the 2021 figure of R$1.217 trillion. There was an increase (3%) in crop products and a decrease (-5.5%) in livestock.

Former President Lula da Silva is trying to split the support of the agricultural sector for Bolsonaro.

His strategy has two axes: talking to the sector’s prominent business leaders and highlighting Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as an interlocutor. He already has allies such as former minister Blairo Maggi and admitted senator Carlos Favaro.

The numbers illustrate the link between agribusiness and support for Bolsonaro. Lula da Silva needs to break through this bubble to try to win in the first round, which is his primary goal.

With information from Poder360

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