Two New Brazil Polls Put Lula Five Points Ahead but Leave the Runoff Tied
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, elects a president on Sunday 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if nobody wins a majority of valid votes.
- —Why it matters These are among the last full surveys before the vote, pitting President Lula against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of the jailed former president.
- —What happened On Monday 28 September, BTG/Nexus put Lula ahead 42% to 37% in the first round. Quaest showed 39% to 34%.
- —The numbers Runoff: 46% to 44% for Lula in BTG/Nexus, 42% each in Quaest. Both results sit within the two-point margin of error.
- —What it means for you A second round on 25 October looks likely, and it looks open. Expect four more weeks of campaigning and market nerves.
- —Still open How many Brazilians stay home or spoil their ballots, with both front-runners rejected by about half of voters.
Two national surveys released on Monday 28 September give President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a five-point first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The same Brazil election poll results still show a runoff too close to call.
The first round is on Sunday 4 October. Lula is seeking a fourth term; Flávio Bolsonaro, of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL), stands in for his father, the former president, who is barred and in prison.
BTG/Nexus: Lula gains, runoff narrows
The pollster Nexus, working for the investment bank BTG Pactual, interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone from 25 to 27 September. Its own release shows Lula up from 40% to 42% in the first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro unchanged at 37%.
CNN Brasil reported the same figures and called the lead outside the margin of error. In the runoff, Lula holds 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro slips from 45% to 44%, a statistical tie. The previous wave had shown a 46% to 45% runoff.
Quaest: a tie at 42%
Quaest, commissioned by the Globo media group, heard 2,004 people face to face from 24 to 27 September. G1 reported Lula at 39%, up from 37%, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%, up from 33%.
Estadão confirmed a 42% to 42% runoff; a week earlier Quaest had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead 42% to 41%. The broad picture matches the Datafolha survey released last week.
Rejection and the abstention worry
Both men are widely disliked. In BTG/Nexus, 51% said they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro under any circumstances and 48% said so of Lula, CNN Brasil and Poder360 reported.
Quaest, which asks only voters who know each candidate, measured rejection at 56% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 54% for Lula, according to Estadão and O Globo. The two figures use different questions and should not be compared directly.
O Globo reported that analysts expect more “non-voting” — abstention plus blank and spoilt ballots — than in 2022. The newspaper said both campaigns have this risk on their radar in the final week.
What Is Not Yet Known
Nobody yet knows how many voters will turn out. In Quaest, blank, spoilt or “will not vote” answers rose from 7% to 10% in a week.
It is also unclear whether the late movement towards Lula will hold. Quaest’s director, Felipe Nunes, attributed the gains to women, low-income voters and recipients of Bolsa Família, the cash-transfer programme, G1 reported.
Each further Brazil election poll before Sunday’s vote will be read against these two. Polling houses still disagree on the size of every gap.
Sources: Nexus; CNN Brasil (first round); CNN Brasil (rejection); Poder360; G1; Estadão; O Globo (abstention); O Globo (Quaest rejection).
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