Datafolha Poll Shows Lula Leading Flávio Bolsonaro 40 to 36 as the Runoff Stays a Two-Point Tie
Key Facts
The country — Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and most populous country, with about 210 million people. It elects a president on Sunday 4 October, with a runoff three weeks later when nobody wins outright.
The background — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro carries the conservative banner after his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from running and imprisoned.
Why it is news — Nine days before the vote, the country’s most traditional pollster confirms a stable first-round picture while its runoff reading is a two-point statistical tie. Five other institutes released the same week disagree with each other by more than any margin of error.
What happened — Datafolha published its latest national wave on Thursday 24 September 2026: Lula 40 percent, Flávio Bolsonaro 36 percent in the first round, and 47 to 45 for Lula in a runoff.
The numbers — Datafolha heard 2,002 voters in person between 22 and 24 September, with a margin of error of two points. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court as BR-00304/2026.
What it means for you — Read the race as a band, not a number. If you hold Brazilian assets or plan to relocate, prepare for either man to win rather than for the leader of the latest survey.
Latest — September 26, 2026
With the race this tight, the electoral court is moving at campaign speed: on Friday, TSE justice André Mendonça ordered X, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube to remove posts falsely claiming Flávio Bolsonaro plans to strip Our Lady of Aparecida of her title as patroness of Brazil — about 1,170 links, a R$50,000 fine for non-compliance and a 48-hour reporting deadline.
Full story: Brazil: TSE Orders Platforms to Purge Fake ‘Patroness’ Posts Targeting Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources: Datafolha national poll released 24 September 2026 (TSE registration BR-00304/2026, fieldwork 22–24 September, 2,002 in-person interviews, ±2pp); AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (fieldwork 17–22 September); Palver (20–23 September); PoderData/Aya (20–23 September); Futura/100% Cidades (19–23 September); Alfa Inteligência (18–23 September); Rio Times poll tracker, 25 September 2026.
More: Brazil election 2026 coverage from The Rio Times.
Nine Days Out, Nobody Has Broken Away
Datafolha holds the first round exactly where its previous wave put it: Lula 40 percent, Flávio Bolsonaro 36 percent. The only movement sits below the two leaders. Romeu Zema, the Minas Gerais governor who never launched, and Ronaldo Caiado of Goiás remain out of the race, and Senator Flávio Cury slips to 5 percent.
The spontaneous reading, where voters name a candidate without being shown a list, tells the same story in rougher form. Lula leads 36 percent to 27 percent, and 4 percent still name the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro, who is not on the ballot. Those votes are the pool Flávio Bolsonaro still hopes to consolidate before 4 October.
A Two-Point Runoff Is a Coin Toss
Datafolha’s runoff simulation has Lula ahead 47 percent to 45 percent. With a margin of error of two points on each number, that is a statistical tie: the true gap could be four points for Lula or one point for Flávio Bolsonaro. Treat it as a coin toss, not a forecast.
The other institutes released this week frame the band. AtlasIntel/Bloomberg has the runoff at Lula 47.7, Flávio 47.4. Alfa Inteligência records an exact 43–43 tie. At the other end, Palver puts Flávio ahead 48–45 and Futura/100% Cidades shows his widest lead at 49.4–43.7. The houses disagree with each other by far more than any single margin of error, which is why our Brazil election polls tracker reads them as a range rather than an average.
The Understudies Fare No Better
Datafolha also tested the runners-up as if they were the conservative standard-bearer. Lula would tie Ronaldo Caiado at 46–44 and Flávio Cury at 46–43, and he would beat both Romeu Zema and Renan Santos by identical 48–39 margins. Swapping the challenger, in other words, does not change the shape of the race.
That matters for the Liberal Party’s internal argument. Flávio Bolsonaro’s numbers are not visibly weaker than any tested alternative, which strengthens his claim to stay in through 4 October even if the first round goes against him.
What Comes Next
The next major reading lands on Saturday 26 September, when Veritá releases its national survey with 40,500 interviews — by far the largest sample of this campaign and the one with the finest regional cuts. Our tracker will carry it the moment it drops.
Brazil votes in the first round on Sunday 4 October 2026, choosing a president, 54 of 81 senators and all 513 federal deputies. If no candidate takes more than half the valid votes, the top two meet again on Sunday 25 October.
Brazil Election 2026 — Our Full Coverage
In depth
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff date. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.