Which Brazilian Exports the New US Tariff Actually Hits — and Which Escape
Brazil · Trade
Key Facts
—The exposure. ApexBrasil says about US$7.2 billion of Brazil’s roughly US$38 billion in exports to the United States are hit by the new 25% tariff.
—The farm hit. Farm confederation CNA estimates 36.5% of agricultural exports to the US are affected — about US$4.6 billion.
—What escapes. Coffee, beef, fish, orange products and rare earths were exempted; 63.5% of farm export value stays outside the surcharge.
—The map. São Paulo takes the biggest absolute hit, about US$3 billion, roughly a fifth of its US sales.
—The timing. The tariff takes effect on July 22; a diversification push toward Europe and Asia is planned for August.
The scale of the United States’ new tariff on Brazil is finally coming into focus in hard numbers. The US tariff on Brazil will hit about US$7.2 billion of the country’s exports — a large sum, but a fraction of the total trade.
ApexBrasil, the government’s trade-promotion agency, says the 25% surcharge affects US$7.2 billion of the roughly US$38 billion Brazil sold to the US in 2025, according to its estimate.
Who actually gets hit
The headline number is smaller than the alarm around it suggests. Of roughly US$38 billion in annual sales to the United States, about US$7.2 billion — under a fifth — falls under the new 25% duty, because Washington exempted a long list of goods.
For agriculture specifically, the farm confederation CNA estimates 36.5% of exports to the US are affected, worth about US$4.6 billion, while 63.5% of farm export value stays outside the tariff.
The pain is concentrated rather than spread evenly. São Paulo, Brazil’s industrial heart, takes the biggest absolute hit — around US$3 billion, close to a fifth of everything it ships to the US — and Santa Catarina is also heavily exposed.
For a handful of states and the towns built around specific export plants, a manageable national figure masks a severe local shock.
To understand why this concentration matters, it helps to think of Brazil’s export map as a patchwork of specialized clusters. São Paulo is not just the country’s most populous state; it is the engine room for higher-value manufactured goods such as machinery, vehicles and aircraft parts.
A 25% price hike on those products can quickly make them uncompetitive against suppliers from countries not facing the same surcharge. Santa Catarina, meanwhile, is a powerhouse for processed meats and industrial goods, sectors where margins are often thin and buyers are quick to switch to cheaper alternatives.
When a tariff lands on a state that depends heavily on a few product lines, the effect ripples outward through local jobs, municipal tax revenues and the small businesses that serve the exporting factories.
Why the exemptions matter
The carve-outs do a lot of work. By sparing coffee, beef, fish, orange juice and rare earths, Washington blunted the blow to Brazil’s best-known farm exports — and to American consumers who depend on them.
What is left in the tariff’s path is weighted toward manufactured and semi-processed goods, where Brazilian exporters have fewer easy alternatives.
That is why the CNA has been at pains to argue that Brazil’s farm competitiveness comes from decades of productivity gains and investment, not unfair trade — a message aimed as much at Washington as at domestic audiences.
The exemption list also reveals a practical reality of modern trade disputes: both sides try to shield their own consumers from immediate price shocks. Coffee and orange juice are staples in American kitchens, and beef is a politically sensitive grocery item.
Rare earths, used in everything from smartphones to defense equipment, are hard to source elsewhere quickly. By leaving these goods untouched, the tariff avoids an instant backlash from US buyers and keeps some of the most valuable Brazilian supply chains intact.
For Brazil, the exemptions mean its most globally recognized export brands can keep their American shelf space, preserving relationships that took years to build.
What Brazil does next
Brasília’s first move is to look elsewhere. ApexBrasil plans an August drive to steer exporters toward Europe and Asia, and officials expect serious negotiation with Washington to gain traction only after Brazil’s elections.
Retaliation options, from tariffs of its own to targeting US intellectual property, remain on the table but are being held in reserve.
The United States is one of Brazil’s two largest trading partners, alongside China, so redirecting billions of dollars in sales is easier announced than done. Buyers in Europe and Asia have their own suppliers and standards, and switching markets can mean lower prices, new certification hurdles and months of lead time.
That is why the diversification plan is best read as a medium-term hedge rather than an overnight fix.
For companies and investors, the practical takeaway is to look past the national total and ask a narrower question: how much of a given firm’s revenue rides on the specific products and states now in the tariff’s path. That is where the real damage — or the relief from an exemption — will show up.
The decision to hold retaliation in reserve is a calculated one. Immediate counter-tariffs could escalate the dispute before any diplomatic off-ramp is tested, and Brazil’s election cycle adds a layer of political uncertainty that makes long-term strategy harder to lock in.
The August trade missions will test whether European and Asian buyers are willing to absorb more Brazilian goods at competitive prices, or whether the logistical and regulatory barriers prove too steep in the short run. A key question to watch is whether the affected states, particularly São Paulo and Santa Catarina, begin to press Brasília for faster action if local job losses start to mount.
Another open question is whether Washington might adjust the exemption list in response to lobbying from American industries that rely on Brazilian inputs not currently spared. For now, the tariff is a known quantity; the real story will be how quickly and creatively Brazilian exporters adapt.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much of Brazil’s US exports are hit?
About US$7.2 billion of roughly US$38 billion, according to ApexBrasil — under a fifth of the total.
What is exempt?
Coffee, beef, fish, orange products and rare earths, among others; CNA says 63.5% of farm export value stays outside the tariff.
When does it start?
The tariff takes effect on July 22, with a diversification plan toward Europe and Asia due in August.
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