Bolsonaro Leads São Paulo Polls as Lula Faces Conservative Surge

A Paraná Pesquisas survey released on February 26, 2025, highlights a challenging political scenario for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in São Paulo.

The poll reveals former President Jair Bolsonaro leading with 40.8% of voter intentions, significantly ahead of Lula’s 26.6%. The survey underscores Bolsonaro’s continued influence despite his ineligibility to run until 2030 due to legal restrictions.

The study, conducted between February 20 and 23 with 1,650 respondents across 86 municipalities, also tested scenarios without Bolsonaro. In these cases, his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, leads with 31.3%, outpacing Lula’s 27.1%.

Similarly, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas surpasses Lula with 30.2% to the president’s 26.7%. These results highlight the strength of conservative candidates in Brazil’s most populous state.

Lula performs better against other challengers but still faces hurdles. He leads Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior by 27.1% to 15.8%, though this does little to counter the broader trend of declining support in São Paulo.

Other candidates in the poll include Ciro Gomes (10.6%), Gusttavo Lima (6.5%), Eduardo Leite (2.5%), Ronaldo Caiado (2.2%), and Helder Barbalho (0.5%). Blank or null votes account for 7%, while 3.2% remain undecided.

Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Race

These findings reflect broader political dynamics as Brazil approaches the 2026 presidential election. Bolsonaro’s enduring popularity among conservatives remains a key factor despite his legal constraints, with Michelle Bolsonaro emerging as a strong alternative candidate supported by evangelical voters and her husband’s base.

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas also stands out as a potential contender, leveraging his governance of São Paulo to build appeal among right-wing voters. For Lula, these numbers signal significant challenges ahead amid economic struggles and political polarization.

The survey’s margin of error is ±2.5 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. It provides valuable insights into voter behavior in a pivotal state for Brazil’s political future.

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