Bolsonaro Leads Lula in 2026 Polls Despite Ineligibility and Legal Woes
Brazil’s political scene is heating up as recent polls show an unexpected twist in the race for the 2026 presidential election. Former President Jair Bolsonaro remains a leading figure in voter intention polls, despite being ineligible for office.
He faces accusations of plotting a coup and assassination, which have further polarized public opinion. In Congress, Bolsonaro has been sidelined by center-right parties, limiting his formal political influence.
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 81.5% · Lula 18.5% (US$198 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 82% · Lula 20%
As of 25 October, 1:00 pm ET (17:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
However, his enduring appeal reflects widespread dissatisfaction with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration. This resilience underscores Bolsonaro’s enduring appeal among his base.
It is fueled by dissatisfaction with Lula’s administration and the polarized political dynamics in Brazil. This development has sparked intense debate about the country’s political future.
The Paraná Pesquisas institute conducted a survey between November 21 and 25, 2024. It revealed that Bolsonaro would secure 37.6% of votes if the election were held today.
Lula trails behind with 33.6% support. This narrow margin falls within the poll’s 2.2 percentage point margin of error. Bolsonaro’s lead is remarkable considering his legal challenges.
He is currently ineligible to run for office until 2030 due to electoral court decisions. The former president also faces indictment by the Federal Police for alleged involvement in a coup attempt.
Brazil’s Political Landscape
The poll highlights Brazil’s ongoing political polarization. It suggests that Bolsonaro’s base remains strong despite his absence from office. Lula’s support appears to have waned since his 2022 victory.
This shift could indicate growing dissatisfaction with his administration’s performance. Regional differences play a significant role in voter preferences.
Lula maintains a stronghold in the Northeast, with 44.9% support compared to Bolsonaro’s 29%. However, Bolsonaro dominates in the South, capturing 50% of voter intentions against Lula’s 26.5%.
Education levels also influence voting patterns. Lula leads among voters with elementary education. Bolsonaro performs better with university graduates. This divide reflects broader socioeconomic factors shaping Brazil’s political landscape.
The survey explored various scenarios, including potential Bolsonaro substitutes. Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro and São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas emerged as competitive alternatives.
Both candidates showed strong performance against Lula in hypothetical runoffs. Brazil’s economy and social issues will likely be key factors in the 2026 election.
Voters’ concerns about inflation, unemployment, and public safety could sway the outcome. The next two years will be crucial for both Lula’s government and the opposition to address these challenges.
The poll results suggest a desire for change among Brazilian voters. They indicate a potential shift away from the current administration’s policies. This trend could lead to a reevaluation of Brazil’s economic and social strategies in the coming years.
For the full picture, see our Brazil Elections 2026: Complete Guide.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief