Argentine Peso Maintains Gap as Dollar Pressure Continues

Trading Economics data reveals the Argentine peso continues to face significant pressure against the US dollar on March 12, 2025. The official exchange rate stands at AR$1060 per dollar while the informal “blue dollar” trades at AR$1210.

This creates a 14.2% gap between official and parallel markets. The Argentine peso traded at 0.00093842 against the dollar today, showing a minimal increase of 0.01% from yesterday.

Technical indicators confirm the long-term depreciation trend with the peso trading well above both its 50-day moving average (1053.67) and 200-day moving average (1005.69). The 14-day RSI stands at 61.68, suggesting continued bullish momentum for the dollar.

Over the past 12 months, the peso has lost 20.52% of its value against the greenback. Analysts project the USD/ARS rate will reach 1065.82 by the end of this quarter and 1068.69 within one year.

This forecast aligns with Argentina’s ongoing economic challenges despite recent stability efforts. The country’s economic recovery now hinges on maintaining fiscal discipline and attracting external capital.

Local investors have led the recent rally in Argentine assets, particularly in bonds and equities. Foreign investors remain cautious due to past negative experiences in the Argentine market.

Argentine Bonds Present Strong Upside Potential

Experts highlight Argentine sovereign bonds as a key investment opportunity for 2025. Despite positive performance, these bonds still have room for appreciation if the country regains market access.

The outlook for equities requires a more selective approach following their exceptionally strong performance. Challenges persist in Argentina‘s ability to accumulate sufficient international reserves.

Market observers believe a solid agreement with the International Monetary Fund would represent a crucial step forward. A gradual easing of the exchange rate framework could also help build confidence in the sustainability of Argentina’s balance of payments.

The broader financial markets show strong momentum with US-listed ETFs recording $111.5 billion in net inflows during February. Equity ETFs captured $65.6 billion while fixed income ETFs attracted $39.7 billion during the same period.