Argentina’s Peso Steadies As Blue–Official Gap Narrows; Merval Extends Rebound
The Argentine peso opened the morning steady, with the street “blue” dollar hovering near 1,425 per dollar while the official screens sat around 1,445.
A gap this tight signals lighter FX stress and, for now, confidence that policy will keep a managed path rather than a lurching devaluation.
A softer Dollar Index just under 100 has also eased pressure across emerging-market FX, offering the peso a tailwind after last week’s swings.
Yesterday’s session and the overnight tone were shaped by two forces: continued talk of reserve-building and buybacks from the economic team, and improving local risk sentiment as country risk briefly dipped below 600 bps.
Together, they produced calmer parallel markets and a constructive read-through for equities. On the equity side, the S&P Merval added another leg higher after a two-week surge post-election, with leadership in industrials and utilities.
Top five winners on the day: Ternium Argentina, Aluar, Sociedad Comercial del Plata, Edenor, and Transportadora de Gas del Norte/Transener.
Only three names finished lower and by modest margins: BBVA Argentina, Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (BYMA), and Banco Supervielle—breadth that underscores how buyers remain in charge despite recent profit-taking.
Technically, USD/ARS on the daily chart is above its 50/100-day moving-average band, but momentum has cooled: the MACD is rolling over and RSI has eased toward the mid-50s.
On the 4-hour view, repeated failures to push higher and a sub-zero MACD point to a mildly bearish/sideways bias intraday; a clean break below roughly 1,418 would expose the 1,405 area, while 1,435 caps the topside for now.
For the Merval, daily trend remains up with momentum normalizing from overbought; the 2.90–2.93 million band is first support, while a close back above the 2.97–3.00 million zone would likely re-accelerate the move.
Why it moved the way it did: a gentler global dollar, local policy signaling that favors discipline over abrupt resets, and improving credit risk all encouraged dip-buying in Argentine assets.
The key watch-items today are the crawling-peg pace, any fresh reserve operations, and whether the DXY’s softness persists.
If the blue–official spread stays narrow and global dollar tone remains benign, the case for a steadier peso and ongoing equity rotation strengthens.
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