Peso Firms As Dollar Softens; Colombia Stocks Hold Near Highs As Rotations Broaden

The Colombian peso strengthened in early Tuesday trade, with USD/COP hovering around 3,750–3,760 after slipping overnight alongside a softer, sub-100 Dollar Index.

The move follows Monday’s grind lower in the pair as investors leaned into Colombia’s still-elevated real yields and a broadly “risk-on” tone across emerging markets.

Oil’s drift has been orderly, removing a headwind. On the home front, the latest inflation print—still above target—keeps BanRep cautious, but the carry remains attractive enough to draw in FX sellers on rallies.

Technicals back the trend. On the 4-hour USD/COP chart, price rides a declining channel with MACD negative and RSI near oversold; a reflex bounce toward 3,78k–3,81k is plausible, but bears remain in control below the 20/50 EMAs.

The daily view shows persistent lower highs under a year-long descending trendline, with support layered around 3,70k and resistance clustered at 3,80k–3,83k. In short: the path of least resistance is still a stronger peso unless the dollar snaps back hard.

Equities are consolidating after a powerful run. The MSCI COLCAP trades around 2,060–2,075 in early dealings, just off recent records, as foreign appetite and domestic funds continue to rotate toward cash-generative names.

The daily chart is extended—RSI in the high-70s/low-80s and MACD rising—so a pause toward 2,035–2,052 would be healthy without breaking the uptrend.

What moved on Monday: breadth stayed constructive and volumes remained decent, with cyclical and financial exposure in favor. Based on exchange data, notable movers included:

Top 5 winners (Monday close):

• Conconcreto +16.1%
• Fabricato +8.6%
• Corficolombiana +2.0%
• Celsia +1.0%
• Cementos Argos +0.6%

Top 5 losers (Monday close):

• ISA −2.2%
• Grupo Argos −1.7%
• Grupo Cibest (pref.) −0.9%
• Promigas −0.3%
• (Tie, minor decliners across smaller caps)

The fundamental mix—slower global dollar, disciplined monetary stance, and improving equity sentiment—continues to support COP and local risk assets.

Risks are clear: a hawkish surprise abroad, a sharp dollar rebound, or sticky inflation that delays the domestic easing path.

Absent those shocks, the base case for Tuesday is tactical mean-reversion in USD/COP within a broader downtrend and modest consolidation in the COLCAP before momentum attempts another push higher.