Peso Firms As Dollar Softens; Colombia Stocks Hold Near Highs As Rotations Broaden
The Colombian peso strengthened in early Tuesday trade, with USD/COP hovering around 3,750–3,760 after slipping overnight alongside a softer, sub-100 Dollar Index.
The move follows Monday’s grind lower in the pair as investors leaned into Colombia’s still-elevated real yields and a broadly “risk-on” tone across emerging markets.
Oil’s drift has been orderly, removing a headwind. On the home front, the latest inflation print—still above target—keeps BanRep cautious, but the carry remains attractive enough to draw in FX sellers on rallies.
Technicals back the trend. On the 4-hour USD/COP chart, price rides a declining channel with MACD negative and RSI near oversold; a reflex bounce toward 3,78k–3,81k is plausible, but bears remain in control below the 20/50 EMAs.
The daily view shows persistent lower highs under a year-long descending trendline, with support layered around 3,70k and resistance clustered at 3,80k–3,83k. In short: the path of least resistance is still a stronger peso unless the dollar snaps back hard.
Equities are consolidating after a powerful run. The MSCI COLCAP trades around 2,060–2,075 in early dealings, just off recent records, as foreign appetite and domestic funds continue to rotate toward cash-generative names.
The daily chart is extended—RSI in the high-70s/low-80s and MACD rising—so a pause toward 2,035–2,052 would be healthy without breaking the uptrend.
What moved on Monday: breadth stayed constructive and volumes remained decent, with cyclical and financial exposure in favor. Based on exchange data, notable movers included:
Top 5 winners (Monday close):
• Conconcreto +16.1%
• Fabricato +8.6%
• Corficolombiana +2.0%
• Celsia +1.0%
• Cementos Argos +0.6%
Top 5 losers (Monday close):
• ISA −2.2%
• Grupo Argos −1.7%
• Grupo Cibest (pref.) −0.9%
• Promigas −0.3%
• (Tie, minor decliners across smaller caps)
The fundamental mix—slower global dollar, disciplined monetary stance, and improving equity sentiment—continues to support COP and local risk assets.
Risks are clear: a hawkish surprise abroad, a sharp dollar rebound, or sticky inflation that delays the domestic easing path.
Absent those shocks, the base case for Tuesday is tactical mean-reversion in USD/COP within a broader downtrend and modest consolidation in the COLCAP before momentum attempts another push higher.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Colombia — Live Market Board
+1.86%
179,722.48
+1.30%
65,314.78
-0.18%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,049,455
+0.51%
2,470.26
+1.86%
59,450.29
+0.11%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,470.26 | +1.86% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| ECOPETROL | 16.92 | -0.53% | +98.01% | 17.01 | 17.05 | 16.79 | 737,591 |
| BANCOLOMBIA | 95.87 | -2.18% | +96.15% | 98.01 | 100.36 | 95.73 | 188,740 |
| GRUPO AVAL | 5.40 | +2.66% | +76.89% | 5.26 | 5.49 | 5.32 | 146,447 |
| TECNOGLASS | 42.30 | -1.10% | -48.04% | 42.77 | 42.73 | 42.05 | 60,908 |
| CREDICORP | 375.17 | -0.49% | +49.60% | 377.00 | 384.43 | 372.27 | 88,375 |
| BUENAVENTURA | 34.45 | -1.02% | +88.07% | 34.80 | 35.62 | 34.33 | 275,831 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
More: Colombia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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