Argentina’s Merval Surges 3.2% as Peso Gains Stability and Energy Stocks Lead Recovery

Argentina’s markets surged on November 4, with the S&P Merval index climbing 3.23% to close at 1,873,982 points, marking one of its strongest performances in months.

The rally was fueled by a combination of a stabilizing peso, robust corporate earnings, and renewed investor confidence in President Javier Milei’s economic agenda.

The peso showed unusual stability, with the official exchange rate holding at 1,457 per dollar and the blue dollar trading at around 1,430—a gap of just 2%, the smallest in over a year.

This convergence signals growing trust in the government’s efforts to unify exchange rates and restore economic stability. The US Dollar Index (DXY) inched up to 100.19, but its impact on the peso was limited, underscoring Argentina’s improving resilience.

Energy stocks led the charge, with YPF rising 4.1% and Pampa Energía gaining 3.8% as Vaca Muerta’s expansion and rising global oil prices boosted sentiment.

Cresud, the agribusiness and real estate giant, advanced 3.5%, benefiting from strong commodity prices and a competitive exchange rate.

Financials also performed well, with Banco Macro and Grupo Financiero Galicia up 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively, as inflation expectations eased and monetary policy tightened.

On the downside, MercadoLibre dipped 1.5% after recent gains, while Transportadora de Gas del Sur and Central Puerto faced headwinds, falling 1.2% and 0.9% on regulatory concerns. Adecoagro, despite its long-term potential, slipped 0.7% amid profit-taking in the agribusiness sector.

The broader market rally reflects a shift in sentiment as Milei’s reforms—including fiscal discipline, deregulation, and pro-business policies—begin to take effect.

Inflation, though still elevated, is showing signs of moderation, and the central bank’s tighter monetary stance is helping to anchor the peso.

With the Merval up 45% over the past year and the peso stabilizing, Argentina’s markets are signaling a potential turning point.

If this momentum continues, Argentina could finally break free from its cycle of economic volatility. The narrowing gap between the official and blue dollar rates is a particularly positive sign, reducing distortions and improving transparency.

The challenge now is to sustain these gains, but for the first time in years, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. Yesterday’s session was a clear vote of confidence in Argentina’s economic future.

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