Argentina’s MERVAL Surges 2.47% as Technical Breakout Signals Bullish Momentum

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL index climbed 55,088 points or 2.47% to close at 2,285,483 on May 13, 2025. The benchmark has now risen for four consecutive trading days, gaining 10.95% during this streak.

Trading volume reached AR$84.1 trillion ($76.45 billion), exceeding the 30-day average by approximately 18%. The index sits 19.23% below its record high of 2,829,730 from January 9, but has rebounded 62.10% from its year-ago level.

Year-to-date, the MERVAL remains down 9.79%, though May’s performance shows an 8.79% gain. The sustained rally marks the longest winning streak since early January.

Technical indicators present a mixed but increasingly bullish picture. The RSI stands at 53.152, moving from oversold territory into a neutral position. Both Stochastic and StochRSI indicators register as heavily overbought at 99.29 and 94.216 respectively.

These readings suggest potential short-term resistance ahead. The MACD indicator remains negative at -12,821.52, offering a contrarian sell signal amid the rally.

Moving averages display an evenly split outlook with six buy and six sell signals. The price has successfully broken above its 50-day moving average of 2,114,385 ($1,922,168.18), confirming short-term bullish momentum.

Yesterday’s candlestick formed a strong green body with minimal shadows, indicating buyer conviction throughout the session. Support now sits at 2,124,297, with resistance at 2,139,958 based on pivot point analysis.

Celulosa Argentina (CELU) dominated the week’s gains with an astonishing 6,638.9% surge, adding AR$2.6 trillion ($2.36 billion) to its market value.

Energy giant YPF followed with a 14.1% weekly gain, contributing AR$2.0 trillion ($1.82 billion) to market capitalization. Pampa Energía, Telecom Argentina, and Transportadora de Gas del Sur rounded out the top performers, each adding over AR$450 billion ($409.09 million) in value.

The industrials sector led sectoral performance with a 19.64% gain, followed by energy at 16.72% and utilities at 13.86%. Healthcare and materials lagged, falling 2.20% and 4.47% respectively.

Argentina’s market valuation metrics have compressed significantly from early 2025 levels. The current P/E ratio stands at 13.1x, down from February’s 23.9x. The price-to-sales ratio has dropped to 1.2x from January’s 2.1x, suggesting improved value propositions.

Global context partially explains the MERVAL’s strength. Monday’s U.S.-China trade truce announcement reduced international tensions and boosted risk assets worldwide.

The rally comes despite persistent domestic inflation concerns, highlighting investor focus on potential economic growth of 5.1% forecast for 2025.

Volume patterns suggest institutional accumulation, with particularly strong interest in energy and utility stocks. The advance-decline ratio shows substantial improvement versus April’s levels, indicating broader market participation in the current uptrend.