Argentina Stocks Rally into Technical Resistance after Energy Surplus Forecast

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL Index jumped 3.4% to 2,129,994.50 ARS on May 6. Traders halted a six-day slide after an $8 billion energy surplus forecast revived risk appetite and technical support emerged near recent lows.

U.S. futures drifted lower ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, while Europe’s STOXX 600 fell 0.7% on political uncertainty. Asia’s markets slipped 0.1% amid renewed U.S. trade tensions, leaving the MERVAL as Latin America’s relative outperformer.

Argentina expects an $8 billion energy trade surplus this year, up from $5.7 billion in 2024 underpinned by Vaca Muerta shale output and fresh tax incentives for oil-field investment.

The International Monetary Fund kept its 5.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025, citing stronger market confidence despite tighter fiscal policy. Energy stocks gave back 5.95% on May 6 amid profit-taking, while utilities and materials fell 5.70% and 5.41%, respectively.

Celulosa Argentina led the winners with a 13.39% surge on robust pulp-export projections. Dycasa rallied 3.37% after upbeat retail sales data, and construction firm Rigolleau added 2.60% on signs of a building recovery.

Real estate giant IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones reported a net profit of 35,063 million ARS for the nine months ending March 31, reversing a loss last year.

Mall occupancy hit 98.1%, and adjusted EBITDA rose 9.7% to 147,914 million ARS, reflecting a rebound in consumer foot traffic. ROFEX futures volumes climbed 40% above their 20-day average as hedgers braced for central-bank decisions.

The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF attracted net inflows, though intermittent outflows underscored mixed foreign sentiment toward local assets. The peso traded near 1,202 per dollar, and the blue-dollar spread narrowed to 13–14%, easing fears of sudden devaluation.

This FX stability helped local equities regain appeal after weeks of currency-driven uncertainty. Technically, the MERVAL found solid support at its lower Bollinger Band and closed above the 20-day moving average.

The index, however, remains 27.2% below its January record high of 2,867,774.50 ARS and faces resistance near its 200-day moving average at 2,236,000 ARS. The Ichimoku cloud also creates a resistance zone between 2,130,000 and 2,180,000 ARS.

Market capitalization contracted from 101.9 trillion ARS in January to 83.1 trillion ARS, underscoring lingering economic and political uncertainties. Latin America peers such as Brazil’s Bovespa and Mexico’s IPC trailed this rally, while global investors circled the MERVAL for its value play.

Traders now eye Wednesday’s Federal Reserve statement, potential tweaks to Argentina’s exchange-rate policy, and the upcoming earnings season. These factors will test whether today’s rebound can break through key technical hurdles and sustain a broader market recovery.