Argentina Poverty Rate Is About to Stop Falling
ARGENTINA · POVERTY
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, where inflation destroyed savings for a generation and poverty is the number politics turns on.
- —The president Javier Milei, an economist who took office in December 2023 promising shock treatment.
- —What he can point to Poverty fell from 52.9% to 28.2% over two years, on the state statistics agency’s own figures.
- —What is coming On 24 September that agency publishes the first half of 2026.
- —What economists expect A rise, to somewhere near 30%, the first since the fall began.
- —The number in circulation About 15.1 million poor Argentines, against 13.4 million late last year.
Argentina counts its poor twice a year, and the count is the scoreboard for the whole Milei project. The next one lands on 24 September, and the private forecasts all point the same way.
For two years the poverty rate has been the strongest card Javier Milei holds. On 24 September, Argentina finds out whether it has run out.
The Number That Decides Argentine Politics
Twice a year the national statistics institute turns its household survey into a single figure. It is the share of Argentines who cannot afford a basic basket of goods.
No other statistic carries the same weight. Governments campaign on it, and oppositions campaign against it.
Milei took office in December 2023 and devalued within days. Poverty jumped to 52.9% in the first half of 2024, from 41.7% at the end of 2023.
That was the price of the shock, and his government said so at the time. Then the number began to come down.
It fell to 38.1%, then to 31.6%, then to 28.2% for the second half of 2025. Each release was a vindication the government used hard.
Why Economists Think the Run Is Over
The consultancy ExQuanti puts the number of poor Argentines at about 15.1 million in the first half of this year.
At the end of 2025 it was 13.4 million. That is an increase of roughly 1.7 million people, and a rate somewhere near 30% or 31%.
Martín González Rozada, who models poverty at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, gets 31.6%. Jorge Colina at the Idesa institute gets 29% to 30%.
Officials briefing journalists have used the same range. The estimates are close enough to each other to be taken seriously.
The Warning That Came in August
The first sign arrived six weeks ago, from the Catholic University of Argentina. It runs its own poverty observatory using the state survey’s raw data.
Its reading for the first quarter of 2026 was 30.0%, against 29.9% in the final quarter of 2025. Destitution rose from 6.1% to 6.5%.
A tenth of a point is nothing on its own. What the observatory’s director, Agustín Salvia, said about it was not nothing.
Poverty stopped falling, he said, and had tended to rise from the last quarter of last year.
What a Rise Would and Would Not Mean
A rise on 24 September would be the first since the recovery began in late 2024. It would break a run the government has leaned on for two years.
It would not be the first increase of Milei’s presidency. The eleven-point jump in the first half of 2024 is still by a wide margin the largest move in the series.
That matters for how the number gets argued about. The government will point to where poverty was when it took over.
The opposition will point to the direction of travel. Both will be describing the same table.
What the Rest of the Picture Looks Like
The Economist published a leader on the government this week, and it was not a hostile one.
It credited the stabilisation, with inflation down from 161% to 34% and two consecutive years of growth. Then it argued that this is no longer enough.
Real wages remain below where they stood at the start of the term, and formal employment is falling. Its prescription was to go further rather than turn back.
The magazine also warned that a remarkable liberal experiment could be voted out in 2027 if visible relief does not arrive.
What to Watch on the Day
The headline rate for the first half of 2026 is the figure that settles the argument. Alongside it comes the destitution rate, which counts people who cannot afford food.
The regional breakdown matters as much. Greater Buenos Aires holds around a third of the population and usually drives the national result.
The institute publishes against the previous six months rather than against the peak, which is the comparison the government would prefer.
Until then, every figure in circulation is a model rather than a measurement, and the models are unanimous about the direction.
More: Argentina news and analysis, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are Argentina’s poverty figures published?
The national statistics institute publishes the first half of 2026 on 24 September 2026.
What was the last official figure?
28.2% for the second half of 2025, published on 31 March 2026.
What do economists expect?
A rise to around 30% or 31%, implying roughly 15.1 million poor people against 13.4 million.
Has poverty risen under Milei before?
Yes. It reached 52.9% in the first half of 2024, up from 41.7% at the end of 2023.
What is the Catholic University study?
A quarterly estimate using the state survey’s raw data. It put the first quarter of 2026 at 30.0%.
Why does the figure matter so much?
It is the measure Argentine governments are judged on, and the one this government has used most to defend its programme.
Sources: INDEC, Universidad Católica Argentina, La Nación, El Economista, Infobae, Chequeado, The Economist.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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