Argentina’s Poverty Figures Do Not Exist Until 24 September
ARGENTINA · POVERTY
Key Facts
- —What is circulating Reports that official data show the first rise in poverty under President Javier Milei.
- —The problem There is no official figure. INDEC publishes the first-half 2026 rate on 24 September.
- —What exists Private nowcasts. ExQuanti sees about 15.1 million poor people, against 13.4 million in late 2025.
- —The academic reading Universidad Católica Argentina puts first-quarter poverty at 30.0%, against 29.9% in the previous quarter.
- —The other error Poverty already rose sharply under this government, to 52.9% in the first half of 2024.
- —The date to watch 24 September, when INDEC publishes.
A number that does not exist yet is being reported as official. The honest version of this story is that Argentina finds out on 24 September.
Argentine and foreign outlets are reporting a rise in poverty under Javier Milei as an official statistic. The statistics institute has not published it.
What INDEC Has and Has Not Released
INDEC measures poverty twice a year, through its household survey. The first-half 2026 release is scheduled for 24 September 2026.
That date is on INDEC’s own calendar. La Nación and El Economista both refer to it in their coverage this week.
Nothing published before that date is an INDEC poverty rate. This distinction is doing a lot of work right now.
What the Private Estimates Say
Several credible estimates are circulating, and they broadly agree. The consultancy ExQuanti puts the number of poor people at about 15.1 million.
That compares with 13.4 million in the second half of 2025, an increase of roughly 1.7 million people. It implies a rate near 30% or 31%.
Martín González Rozada of Universidad Torcuato Di Tella estimates 31.6%. Jorge Colina of Idesa puts it at 29% to 30%.
Government officials briefing journalists have used a range of 30% to 31%. The estimates are consistent enough to be taken seriously.
They are still estimates. Each is a model applied to partial data, and none of them is the measurement.
The Catholic University Study Is Not INDEC Either
On 4 August the Universidad Católica Argentina published a quarterly reading. It put first-quarter 2026 poverty at 30.0% and destitution at 6.5%.
The comparison quarter, the fourth of 2025, was 29.9% and 6.1%. That is a rise, and it is the source of much of the current reporting.
The study uses INDEC household survey microdata. It is not an INDEC statistic, and several write-ups have blurred that line.
Agustín Salvia, who directs the observatory, put it carefully. Poverty stopped falling, he said, and tended to rise from the last quarter of last year.
Why “First Rise Under Milei” Is Wrong
This is the part that does not survive the series. Poverty rose steeply in the first semester fully inside Milei’s term.
The recorded path is clear. It was 41.7% in the second half of 2023, then 52.9% in the first half of 2024.
That is a jump of 11.2 percentage points, published by INDEC in September 2024. It is by far the largest move in the series.
The rate then fell steadily. It was 38.1% in the second half of 2024, then 31.6%, then 28.2% in the second half of 2025.
So the accurate phrasing is narrower. If the figure rises this month, it would be the first increase since poverty began falling in late 2024.
Why the Difference Matters
Poverty is the single most contested number in Argentine politics. It is the measure the government cites most often as proof its programme works.
A first increase in two years would be a real turning point. A first increase ever under this government would be a different and false claim.
Publishing the second version hands the government an easy correction. It also obscures the genuine finding, which is that the fall has stopped.
What to Watch on 24 September
The headline rate for the first half of 2026 is the number that settles this. Watch the destitution rate alongside it, which measures people below the food basket.
Watch the regional breakdown as well. The greater Buenos Aires figure usually drives the national result.
And watch the comparison INDEC itself draws. The institute publishes against the previous semester, not against the peak.
What Is Not Known
The actual first-half rate is not known, and will not be until INDEC publishes. Nor is it known whether the private estimates will prove close.
The Economist published a critical leader on the programme this week, arguing that stabilisation alone is no longer enough. We could not verify the printed English headline at source.
For anyone reading Argentine economic coverage from abroad, the rule this fortnight is simple. Check whether the number has a publication date attached.
More: Argentina news and analysis, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has INDEC published 2026 poverty data?
No. The first-half 2026 figure is scheduled for 24 September 2026.
What do private estimates show?
Around 30% to 31.6%, implying roughly 15.1 million poor people against 13.4 million in late 2025.
Is this the first rise under Milei?
No. Poverty rose to 52.9% in the first half of 2024, from 41.7% in the second half of 2023.
What was the last official figure?
28.2% for the second half of 2025, published on 31 March 2026.
What is the UCA study?
A quarterly estimate by Universidad Católica Argentina using INDEC microdata. It is not an official statistic.
What should I watch for?
The headline rate, the destitution rate and the greater Buenos Aires breakdown, on 24 September.
Sources: INDEC, Universidad Católica Argentina, La Nación, El Economista, Infobae, Chequeado.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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