Merval Falls 2.5% as Country Risk Hits 586 | Argentina Market Report, Oct 7
Key Facts
- The S&P Merval, Argentina’s main stock index, fell 2.51% to 2,824,123 points on Wednesday 7 October, ending a two-day rally (EFE).
- Country risk rose 2.3% to 586 basis points, after falling 82 points over the two previous sessions to 574.
- Banks led the fall: BBVA Argentina lost 4.8% and Banco Macro 4%, while Metrogas gained 3.2%.
- The official wholesale dollar fell 0.2% to 1,517 pesos (about US$1), the parallel CCL rate rose 0.4% to about 1,620.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Javier Milei 55.5% to win the next presidential election (US$822,672 traded, as of 8:45 pm ET, 7 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Argentine stocks fell sharply on Wednesday 7 October. The S&P Merval, the main index of the Buenos Aires exchange, lost 2.51% to 2,824,123 points.
Argentine bonds also fell, by up to 1.2% in dollar terms. Country risk, the gap between Argentine and US bond yields, rose 2.3% to 586 basis points.
Local media linked the move to the end of the euphoria that followed Brazil’s election result. Argentine shares in New York fell by as much as almost 5%, led by banks.
What matters today. Argentine assets paid back part of their gains from earlier in the week. Country risk remains below 600 points.
01 The session in one read
The Merval closed at 2,824,122.54 points, down 2.51% from 2,896,853 on Tuesday. In dollar terms at the parallel CCL rate, local media put it at about US$1,744.
Banks fell most. BBVA Argentina lost 4.8% and Banco Macro 4%. In New York, Argentine shares fell by up to almost 5%, led by the financial sector, La Nación reported.
Sovereign bonds lost up to 1.2%. Country risk rose 2.3% to 586 basis points, which cut the downward run of the two previous days, when it had fallen by 82 points to 574.
The evidence points to profit-taking after a strong start to the week. Country risk is still well below the ten-month high of 655 points reached on Friday 2 October.
We cannot say from one session whether the recovery is over. The market was reacting to a swing in regional sentiment as much as to Argentine news.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 2,824,123 | -2.51% | Ends a two-day rally |
| Country risk | 586 bp | +2.3% | Back near 600 |
| Wholesale dollar | 1,517 pesos | -0.2% | Official rate slips |
| CCL dollar | 1,620 pesos | +0.4% | Parallel rate rises |
| MEP dollar | 1,539 pesos | -0.1% | Financial rate flat |
| Argentina ETF (ARGT) | US$87.82 | -2.08% | US-listed Argentine shares |
Argentina’s statistics office INDEC reported that Industrial Production in August rose 1.9% from July after seasonal adjustment, but was 3.2% lower than a year earlier. Output had fallen 5.1% in July. Over January–August, factory output is down 2.7%.
Eleven of the sixteen industrial divisions fell from a year earlier. The steepest falls were in machinery and equipment, down 24%, and clothing, leather and footwear, down 14.7%.
At the wholesale rate of 1,517 pesos, 1,000 pesos is about US$0.66. The CCL rate is a parallel rate used by investors. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,824,123
-2.51%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
YPF
7,810
+0.26%
+72.84%
7,790
7,850
7,600
1,763,858
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
+1.82%
7,035
7,115
6,920
1,564,062
PAMPA
5,115
+0.69%
+26.70%
5,080
5,140
5,000
721,190
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
+18.67%
765.50
770.00
742.50
771,892
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
+29.83%
949.50
951.00
932.50
135,426
TGS
8,870
-0.17%
+15.05%
8,885
9,075
8,720
143,546
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
+28.36%
2,117
2,165
2,086
404,146
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
-92.90%
1,670
1,670
1,635
20,877
COME
40.93
-0.73%
-30.47%
41.23
41.60
40.50
4,258,884
LOMA NEGRA
3,130
+0.08%
+5.80%
3,128
3,205
3,090
182,992
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
+35.14%
279.75
282.50
272.00
1,409,575
TELECOM ARG
4,233
-0.70%
+55.19%
4,263
4,335
4,160
31,896
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
-49.65%
38.98
38.70
36.77
793,552
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
-20.71%
1,940
1,927
1,870
329,640
03 Why it moved: regional sentiment and bank sell-off
Argentine markets had jumped on Monday as Brazilian assets surged after the first round of Brazil’s election. On Wednesday, Brazil’s own stocks fell for a second day, and Argentine shares followed.
Banks, which gained most earlier in the week, fell most. BBVA Argentina lost 4.8% and Banco Macro 4%. In New York, Banco Macro fell 3.85%, Grupo Financiero Galicia 2.96% and Pampa Energía 1.67%.
A few shares rose. The gas distributor Metrogas gained 3.2%.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Metrogas | +3.2% | Gas distributor |
| Telecom Argentina | +0.1% | Almost flat |
| Banco Macro | -4% | Local close |
| BBVA Argentina | -4.8% | Largest loser |
| Galicia (ADR) | -2.96% | New York close |
| Pampa Energía (ADR) | -1.67% | New York close |
Local moves are from EFE’s close report; New York moves are from RT.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Merval | Argentina | -2.51% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | -0.74% |
| IPC | Mexico | -1.01% |
| IPSA | Chile | -1.47% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | n/a |
| S&P 500 | United States | -0.22% |
Argentina fell more than any other index in the table. The official COLCAP close was not available at publication.
06 The technical picture
The Merval gave back about 72,700 points. It still closed above 2.8 million points.
Country risk at 586 points is back below the 600 mark that markets watch. A move above 600 would reverse the improvement of the past two sessions.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s Argentina Presidential Election Winner market priced Javier Milei at 55.5%, Axel Kicillof at 32.0% and Sergio Massa at 8.3%, with US$822,672 traded (read at 8:45 pm ET on 7 October). A separate market gave 2.1% to Milei leaving office before 2027.
These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Country risk: A move back above 600 basis points would reverse the recent improvement.
- Brazil’s runoff: Argentine assets have followed Brazilian assets since the first round; the second round is on 25 October.
- Dollar rates: The gap between the official rate of 1,517 pesos and the CCL rate near 1,620 shows how investors price risk.
- US yields: Higher US bond yields weigh on emerging-market bonds, including Argentina’s.
Background: Merval Gains 1% as Risk Falls to 573 | Argentina Market Report, Oct 6.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Merval do on 7 October?
The S&P Merval fell 2.51% to 2,824,123 points, ending a two-day rally, according to EFE.
What is country risk?
Country risk measures the gap between the yields of Argentine dollar bonds and US Treasuries. It rose 2.3% to 586 basis points on 7 October.
Which Argentine stocks fell most?
BBVA Argentina lost 4.8% and Banco Macro 4%, according to EFE.
What did Argentine industry do in August?
Industrial output rose 1.9% from July but was 3.2% lower than a year earlier, according to INDEC.
Market data: RT; local close: EFE, La Nación; industry: INDEC; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:45 pm ET, 7 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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