Mexico’s economy is grappling with the consequences of widespread insecurity, according to a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report.
The organization highlights that crime and corruption are hindering new investments, job creation, and overall economic growth in the country.
The impact of crime varies significantly across different states in Mexico. Direct costs include losses from theft and extortion, as well as increased security expenses for businesses.
Indirect costs stem from the perception of crime and subsequent decision-making based on these perceptions. The IMF’s findings come from their annual visit to Mexico in early October.
During this time, they met with members of Claudia Sheinbaum’s cabinet, high-level officials, and experts to assess the country’s economic situation.
The burden of insecurity is not evenly distributed throughout Mexico. Southern states are particularly affected, limiting their ability to close the economic gap with more prosperous regions.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) bear a disproportionate burden. The damage caused by violence is four to six times greater for these businesses compared to larger companies. This disparity exists despite SMEs likely spending less on security measures.
Women’s participation in the labor market is also affected by insecurity. Safety concerns, particularly during commutes, can force women to leave their jobs or prevent them from seeking employment altogether.
IMF Recommendations for Mexico
The IMF recommends strengthening governance and addressing corruption and crime as key policy priorities.
They suggest that Mexico would benefit from updating its political priorities to address the risks and potential macroeconomic impact of financial crimes and organized crime.
The report notes that impunity for reported crimes facilitates the operation of organized crime. Additionally, the perception of corruption among police officers discourages crime reporting and hinders law enforcement efforts.
The IMF emphasizes that insecurity and violence deter investment and economic growth. Businesses operating in areas with gang presence face considerably higher damages from crime.
The impact of violence on women’s labor participation requires further study. However, it is clear that insecurity has become a significant cost factor. Women are more likely to leave their jobs due to worsening working conditions and increased risks.
Data from the National Occupation and Employment Survey shows that an increase in worker homicides has led to a slight increase (0.4%) in women’s employment. However, this figure is statistically insignificant.
The IMF notes that insecurity is not unique to Mexico but has gained importance throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.
In a separate report, they explain that foreign direct investment flows are lower than remittances due to poor governance and insecurity in the region.
Paradoxically, the increase in remittances correlates with deteriorating security, as it generates migration to other countries.
The IMF experts emphasize that improving governance is associated with higher FDI flows, while crime is linked to increased emigration and a consistent rise in remittances to the country of origin.
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