PARAGUAY · MARKETS ANALYSIS
Published Saturday, 7 November 2026, 5:10 p.m. ET · Source: rating-agency reports, exchange-rate and emerging-market bond data
The dollar rose about 12% against Paraguay’s guaraní in the eight days to 5 November, as the crisis at Ueno Bank, a digital lender with almost 3 million clients, deepened and the central bank put it under resolution, a regulator-led wind-down. The extra yield on Paraguay’s dollar bonds also rose, but we found no announcement as of 7 November that Moody’s, a major rating agency, had cut Paraguay’s grade.
Our reading is that the currency has taken the hit while credit ratings have so far held, but the picture is not settled. This analysis builds on our first report on the dollar jump and sits inside our Paraguay Ueno Bank crisis dossier.
Key Facts
- Currency The dollar rose about 12% in eight days, from 5,661 to about 6,360 guaraníes per US$, by 5 November.
- Bonds Extra yield on Paraguay’s dollar bonds rose from about 119 to 144 basis points (hundredths of a point).
- Ratings Paraguay’s Baa3 grade at Moody’s, the lowest investment-grade notch, had not been cut by 7 November.
- Banks No published data on deposit outflows at other banks; Ueno depositors wait for payouts.
- Power Index Paraguay ranks 10th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 35.0 points (November 2026 edition).
Paraguay’s currency and bond risk have worsened since Ueno, but we found no cut to its investment-grade ratings.
How Far the Guaraní Fell
We convert amounts in this article at 6,480 guaraníes per US$, a rounded rate near the Friday 6 November close reported by local media. Reports for Thursday 5 and Friday 6 November run from about 6,360 to 6,490, so every conversion is approximate.
Market quotes put the dollar at 5,661 guaraníes on 28 October and about 6,358 on Thursday 5 November, a rise of 12.3%. One quote for Thursday reaches 6,487.
The Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) is the regulator that took control of Ueno. We could not open its own rate tables, so none of these quotes is an official close.
Before the crisis the guaraní had been rising for months. That made it a burden for exporters and a relief for anyone with dollar debts.
We found no announced BCP dollar sales since the takeover. Our report on farm exporters shows why a weaker guaraní helps them.
What Bond Investors Are Pricing
The spread is the extra yield investors demand over US Treasuries, the benchmark US government bonds, to hold a country’s dollar bonds, and 100 basis points equal one percentage point. Paraguay’s spread on the EMBI, the standard emerging-market bond index, was about 119 before the shock.
It closed Thursday 5 November near 144, with prints between 143 and 146, after touching 157 around midday. That is a rise of about 25 basis points in roughly a week.
Ueno also sold about US$350 million of five-year dollar notes in March, and their fate is not yet known. We give no yield level for Paraguay’s own dollar bonds, because we could not confirm one.
Why Ratings Have Not Moved
Moody’s rates Paraguay Baa3, the lowest investment-grade notch, and affirmed it in July 2026 with a stable outlook. In a 6 November report it saw no immediate effect of the crisis on the sovereign, whose public debt is near 38% of output, but pointed to weak institutional and governance standards.
S&P Global Ratings, another agency, rates Paraguay BBB-, also investment grade, after an upgrade in December 2025. Fitch Ratings, a third agency, sits one notch lower at BB+, last reported with a positive outlook, and we found no announcement of a change by any of the three as of 7 November.
Are Savers Pulling Money Out?
Asoban, Paraguay’s banking association, is reported to see Ueno as an isolated case with no risk of runs on other banks, which we could not confirm independently. We found no published data on deposit outflows.
The BCP set up payouts of up to 10 million guaraníes (about US$1,540) per depositor, as our report on the first payouts explains. Moody’s notes that about 97% of depositors are fully covered by the deposit guarantee fund, an insurance pool for bank deposits, which had liquidity of about US$1.6 billion in September.
Small traders say refunds are slow, which is where a confidence problem could start. Any delay in the payouts would test the banking association’s view that the rest of the system is safe.
The Case That This Is Bigger
The strongest counter-argument is political. President Santiago Peña was removed by the Senate on Friday 6 November and Vice President Pedro Alliana was sworn in the same day after the Ueno collapse, as our reports on the removal and on Carlos Carvallo, who resigned as central bank chief, show.
Reports put the public money held at Ueno, including pension funds, between about US$730 million and US$870 million. Moody’s sees a contingent liability for the state, with direct costs possibly limited to central-bank liquidity for the guarantee fund, but warns of costs if public bodies lose money on unrecovered balances.
What It Means for You
For a US bond investor, the spread and the Moody’s grade are the two lines to watch. A cut by Moody’s below Baa3 would end Paraguay’s investment-grade status with that agency and would be the clearest sign that view had changed.
For a company or traveller paying in guaraníes, check which rate your contract or bank uses, because reported quotes for a single day differ by more than 100 guaraníes per US$. Compare banks before changing money.
What to Watch
The first test is Monday 9 November, the first full trading day after the Senate vote, for both the exchange rate and the spread. The second is whether the BCP publishes dollar sales or any new currency measure.
Also watch for any statement from S&P or Fitch, the naming of a new BCP head, and the pace of Ueno payouts. Each could move prices more than the headlines of the weekend.
What Is Not Known
We could not open the BCP’s own rate tables, so the Friday close of about 6,480 per US$ is a reported figure and not an official one. An international rate aggregator shows lower dollar rates for the same days.
The exact amount of state money at Ueno, the size of the hole in the bank and the fate of its bonds are also unknown. Who will lead the BCP, and whether a rating agency will act, are open too.
The Friday close of the spread was not available at publication, and we found no confirmed yield level for Paraguay’s dollar bonds. Nothing here is investment advice.
In Plain English
- BCP The Central Bank of Paraguay, the regulator that took control of Ueno.
- Basis point One hundredth of a percentage point, used to measure small yield moves.
- Spread The extra yield a bond pays over US Treasuries, a gauge of country risk.
- Guaraní Paraguay’s currency; we use 6,480 per US$, a reported rate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Paraguay’s credit rating been cut?
No. We found no announcement of a change by Moody’s, S&P or Fitch as of 7 November 2026. Moody’s rates Paraguay Baa3, S&P BBB- and Fitch BB+.
How far did the guaraní fall after Ueno?
The dollar rose about 12% in eight days to 5 November, from 5,661 to about 6,358 per US$, and one quote reached 6,487. We could not confirm an official BCP close.
Is Paraguay’s banking system in trouble?
Paraguay’s banking association is reported to see no risk of runs on other banks, which we could not confirm. We found no published data on deposit outflows.
Sources: Exchange-rate quotes and emerging-market bond spread data of 28 October to 6 November 2026; Moody’s report of 6 November, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings grades; Asoban, Paraguay’s banking association. Not every primary page was reachable on 7 November.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. How we use AI · Report an error