VENEZUELA · OIL
Key Facts
- —The country Venezuela, a South American oil exporter whose official proven reserves are the largest in the world, has been run by interim authorities since the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026.
- —Why it matters The United States says a deal with a Venezuelan oil company gives it majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, and that claim now faces independent doubt.
- —Why now A wire-service report published on Thursday 22 October 2026 and carried by Venezuelan outlets on Thursday and Friday 23 October quotes about half a dozen experts who question the official reserve figures.
- —What happened Analysts say the official 303 billion barrels rest on outdated data and that only 60 billion to 120 billion barrels can be produced under current conditions.
- —The numbers One specialist puts the barrels that qualify as proven in the short term at 10 billion to 15 billion, against the White House figure of 65 billion.
- —What it means for you US investors, refiners and drivers should treat the 65 billion barrel figure as a claim until the technical data is published.
- —Still open Whether the White House or the company will publish the method behind the 65 billion barrels, and how much of it can be produced.
- —Power Index Venezuela ranks 13th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 27.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Venezuela oil reserves of 303 billion barrels, the largest on paper anywhere, are being questioned by independent analysts just as the United States builds a deal on 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude. A report by the Associated Press, published on Thursday 22 October 2026 and carried by Venezuelan outlets that day and on Friday 23 October, quotes about half a dozen experts who put the barrels that can realistically be produced under current conditions at 60 billion to 120 billion.
For US readers the stakes are the White House claim of 31 August 2026 that a Venezuelan company, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), gives the United States majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, against roughly 46 billion in US territory. If the true figure is far lower, the volumes, tax income and fuel-price promises built on it would shrink with it.
We covered the oil money side of this story in Venezuela Sees US$76 Billion Oil Investment and the output side in Venezuela Oil Output Holds Near 1.2 Million. This article looks only at how many barrels are really there.
What Analysts Say About Venezuela Oil Reserves
Evanan Romero, a former Venezuelan energy official who now lives in Houston, called the plan unrealistic and said the US government did not audit the local reports before signing. He told the Associated Press that the 65 billion barrels cannot be believed, and that if officials had to testify on how they calculated the number, everyone would see it as “a funny number, an absolute lie”, in the Spanish text published by El Nacional.
Luisa Palacios, a Columbia University researcher and former president of the US refiner Citgo, said the government data probably refers to the total oil in place rather than to proven reserves. Recoverable oil would then be only 10% to 12% of the 65 billion barrels, which the Spanish reports put at about 6.5 billion; by our arithmetic 10% to 12% would be 6.5 billion to 7.8 billion, so the reports’ figure matches only the 10% end, and she said she could not tell which recovery rate the White House assumed.
Francisco Monaldi, an oil specialist at Rice University, estimated that only 10 billion to 15 billion barrels meet the criteria for proven reserves in the short term. That is about 15% to 23% of the 65 billion barrels, by our arithmetic.
Banca y Negocios, a Venezuelan business outlet, summed up the consultants’ view as roughly one third of the official 303 billion barrels, a range of 60 billion to 120 billion barrels. It said that would still be a large volume but not enough to keep Venezuela in first place worldwide.
What the White House Says About the 65 Billion Barrels
The White House fact sheet of 31 August 2026 says NABEP received 100-year concessions on 17 oil fields with proven reserves of about 65 billion barrels from Venezuela’s interim authorities. It adds that the US Department of War’s Office of Strategic Capital holds a 35% stake in the parent company, and that the State Department may buy 20% of output at production cost.
The same document says NABEP plans to invest up to US$100 billion in new oil infrastructure and expects to pay about US$200 billion in royalties and taxes over 25 years. A White House release of 2 September 2026 added that the company already produces 250,000 barrels a day, and the fact sheet says most of the additional fields were previously controlled by Russian and Chinese firms or by what it calls cronies of Maduro and Hugo Chávez.
White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers defended the terms in a written statement, calling the agreement a historic step toward stabilising Venezuela’s economy that more than doubles US oil reserves. The White House did not publish the method behind the 65 billion barrels or answer the news agency’s questions, according to El Nacional.
Proven Reserves Versus Oil in the Ground
Oil in place is everything a field is estimated to hold, while proven reserves are the part that can be produced with reasonable certainty under current technology and costs. The gap can be large for the heavy crude of the Orinoco Belt, the oil region named after the river, where El Nacional says many of the blocks in the deal are located.
Banca y Negocios, summarising the report, says many of the committed fields are close to depleted or lack the infrastructure needed to develop them, and Romero recalled that several international companies left some of the Orinoco fields because of operating difficulties. The report also notes that NABEP is not listed on a stock exchange, so it is not subject to the reserve-reporting and audit rules of the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
By our arithmetic, the 65 billion barrels in the deal equal about 21% of the official 303 billion, and the 60 billion to 120 billion range equals 20% to 40% of it. The official 303 billion figure is described by the experts as based on outdated and unreliable government data.
What It Means for You
Investors who read the 65 billion barrel figure as a measure of future US supply should wait for technical data, because the experts quoted put the near-term proven volume between about 6.5 billion and 15 billion barrels. Lower Venezuela oil reserves would not change oil already flowing, but they would reduce the long-term volumes, royalties and taxes that the White House projects.
Drivers and refiners should not expect the deal alone to move US fuel prices soon, since the White House itself says material production reaches the United States as soon as early next year. Our guides Venezuela Natural Resources Explained 2026 and Who Holds Power in Venezuela, Explained set out where the oil sits and who controls it.
Travellers and expats in Venezuela see none of this directly, since the dispute concerns long-term reserves rather than daily conditions. Our Caracas expat city guide covers day-to-day costs and conditions.
What Is Not Known
The White House has not published the technical method behind the 65 billion barrels and, according to El Nacional, did not answer the news agency’s questions; we found no statement on the method from the Venezuelan authorities or NABEP. We could not open the official reserve filings or the OPEC statistical bulletin for this article, so the 303 billion figure rests on the reports and on the experts’ description of it.
The experts’ ranges differ widely, from about 6.5 billion to 7.8 billion barrels for the 65 billion in the deal to 60 billion to 120 billion for the whole country, and they measure different things. It is also unknown whether Venezuela or NABEP will commission an independent audit that would settle the question.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many barrels of oil does Venezuela officially have?
Official figures put Venezuela’s proven reserves at about 303 billion barrels, the largest in the world on paper. Analysts quoted by the Associated Press say the volume that can be produced today is only 60 billion to 120 billion barrels.
What did the White House say about 65 billion barrels?
The White House said on 31 August 2026 that a deal with NABEP gives the United States majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. It compared that with roughly 46 billion barrels of proven reserves in US territory.
Who questions the Venezuelan reserve figures?
Evanan Romero, Luisa Palacios and Francisco Monaldi are among the experts quoted, and Banca y Negocios says about half a dozen were consulted. They argue that the figures rest on outdated data and may mix oil in place with proven reserves.
Is the 65 billion barrel claim confirmed?
No independent source quoted in these reports confirms it, and the White House has not published its method. Monaldi puts the short-term proven volume at 10 billion to 15 billion barrels.
What does this mean for US readers?
It means the size of the US stake and the long-term supply promised by the deal are not yet verified. Investors should wait for technical data before treating 65 billion barrels as producible oil.
Sources: El Nacional, 23 October 2026; Banca y Negocios, 22 October 2026; White House fact sheet, 31 August 2026; White House release, 2 September 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief