VENEZUELA · OIL
Key Facts
- The country Venezuela, on South America’s Caribbean coast, has been run by acting president Delcy Rodríguez since a US operation arrested Nicolás Maduro in January.
- What happened Venezuela told OPEC it produced 1,206,000 barrels of crude a day in September, only 5,000 more than in August.
- The independent count Outside estimates published by OPEC put September output at 1,150,000 barrels a day, about 56,000 below the official figure.
- The price Merey, the country’s heavy export crude, averaged US$93.75 a barrel in September, up from US$67.36 in July.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives 55% to OPEC’s independent count hitting 1.2 million barrels a day in 2026 (14 October, 4:48 a.m. ET).
- Power Index Venezuela ranks 13th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 27.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Still open Whether the 17 fields handed to a US-backed company in August will lift output before the end of the year.
Venezuela oil output held near 1.2 million barrels a day in September, according to OPEC figures reported in Caracas on Tuesday, 13 October. The government told OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, it pumped 1,206,000 barrels a day, 5,000 more than in August.
The number matters in Washington, because US Treasury licences now govern much of Venezuela’s oil trade after a US operation arrested Nicolás Maduro in January. Independent estimates OPEC also publishes were lower, at 1,150,000 barrels a day, and the official count is up only 6,000 since July.
What the OPEC Figures Show
The oil producers’ group publishes two production numbers for each member every month in its monthly oil market report. One is the figure the government reports directly, and the other is an estimate built from outside secondary sources.
On the official count, Venezuela oil output was 1,200,000 barrels a day in July, 1,201,000 in August and 1,206,000 in September. Monitoreamos, an independent Venezuelan news site, described the result as a fourth straight month of stagnation, following the August figures.
On the secondary-source estimate, Venezuela oil output rose by about 18,000 barrels a day in September, to 1,150,000, from roughly 1.13 million in August. Banca y Negocios, a Caracas business outlet, reported the same official and independent figures from the OPEC tables.
Over the third quarter, the official figures averaged 1,202,000 barrels a day, 35,000 more than in the second quarter. On that count, output is up about 30% from 924,000 barrels a day in January, the month a US operation arrested Maduro.
That January figure was itself a slump of 196,000 barrels a day from December, OPEC’s February report shows. Monitoreamos noted that Venezuela pumped about 3.1 million barrels a day in 1998, the year before the late Hugo Chávez’s socialist movement took power.
OPEC’s members together produced about 25.1 million barrels a day in September, both outlets said. On the independent estimate, Venezuela accounts for about 4.6% of that total.
Why Washington Is Watching
Since January, Venezuela has opened its oil, mining and power sectors to foreign investment in close cooperation with the United States, Monitoreamos reported. Maduro and his wife now face charges in New York, where federal prosecutors added a torture conspiracy charge on 8 October.
Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s former vice-president, now serves as acting president in Caracas. US dealings with the state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), run through Treasury licences such as General License 52C, updated on 14 September.
Washington watches Venezuela oil output through the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which licenses trade in Venezuelan oil. Its General License 46E, amended on 28 September, authorises certain dealings in Venezuelan-origin oil and petrochemical products.
Another licence, 50C, covers oil and gas operations in Venezuela by certain companies, and 47B allows sales of US-made diluents. Diluents are light oils that thin Venezuela’s heavy crude so it can flow through pipelines.
On 28 August, President Donald Trump and Rodríguez announced a deal covering about a fifth of Venezuela’s oil reserves in 17 fields, Monitoreamos reported. The fields went to North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), a firm the deal’s critics say has no operating track record.
More than 100 Venezuelan experts, academics and politicians called the deal opaque and legally precarious, El Nacional reported on Monday, 12 October. They said 35% of NABEP’s shares went free of charge to a US government body, and they demanded the deal’s immediate suspension.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
Venezuelan Crude Still Sells at a Discount
Merey, Venezuela‘s main export crude, averaged US$93.75 a barrel in September, Banca y Negocios and the Caracas site Finanzas Digital reported from the OPEC data. That is up from US$67.36 in July, the figure in OPEC’s own August report.
Merey is a heavy crude that costs more to refine, so it trades below lighter grades. In July it sold about 19% below the OPEC basket, an average of members’ main export crudes, which stood at US$82.99.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket gives a 55% chance that Venezuela oil output hits 1.2 million barrels a day in any 2026 month (14 October, 4:48 a.m. ET). The bet settles on OPEC’s secondary-source estimate, which stood at 1,150,000 in September, not on the government’s own figure.
The wider Polymarket event on Venezuelan output has drawn about US$188,000 in bets, including about US$11,400 on the 1.2 million line. Bettors give only 14.5% to 1.3 million barrels a day and about 11% to 1.4 million.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US companies weighing Venezuelan deals, the key fact is that official Venezuela oil output has barely moved since July. That is despite US Treasury licences that were updated in late August and again in September.
For holders of PDVSA’s 2020 bond, which pays 8.5% interest, OFAC’s General License 5Z of 16 September is the one to watch. It authorises certain transactions involving that bond on or after 5 November 2026.
For US refiners built to run heavy crude, Merey’s jump to US$93.75 a barrel in September makes Venezuelan supply costlier. For drivers, Venezuela’s weight is modest, at under 5% of OPEC output in September.
What Is Not Known
How much of September’s oil came from fields run by foreign partners under US licences has not been published. It is also unclear when the 17 fields in the August deal will add meaningful output.
Whether the gap of about 56,000 barrels a day between the official and independent counts will narrow is also open. OPEC’s next monthly report, due in November, will show whether Venezuela oil output broke the plateau in October.
More: Venezuela news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much oil does Venezuela produce?
Venezuela told OPEC it produced 1,206,000 barrels of crude a day in September 2026. Independent estimates published by OPEC put output lower, at 1,150,000 barrels a day.
Who controls Venezuela’s oil industry now?
Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, answers to acting president Delcy Rodríguez’s government. US Treasury licences set what US companies may do with Venezuelan oil and with PDVSA itself.
Why is Venezuelan oil cheaper than other OPEC crudes?
Merey is a heavy crude that needs more processing, so it sells at a discount. In July it averaged US$67.36 a barrel, against US$82.99 for the OPEC basket.
When is the next OPEC figure on Venezuela oil output due?
OPEC publishes its oil market report once a month, so the October figures are due in November. That report will show whether Venezuela’s output has moved beyond 1.2 million barrels a day.
Sources: OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2026 (tables 5-7 and 5-8, Merey and basket prices), 12 August 2026; OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report, February 2026 (January production), 11 February 2026; US Treasury, OFAC, Venezuela-related sanctions and general licences, accessed 14 October 2026; US Treasury, OFAC, Issuance of Amended Venezuela General Licenses (46E, 48D, 49B), 28 September 2026; US Treasury, OFAC, Venezuela-related General License 5Z, 16 September 2026; US Attorney’s Office, Southern District of New York, Maduro and Flores charged with torture, 8 October 2026; Banca y Negocios, Venezuela reportó a la OPEP producción petrolera de 1.206.000 barriles diarios en septiembre, 13 October 2026; Monitoreamos, Producción petrolera de Venezuela siguió estancada en septiembre, 13 October 2026; Finanzas Digital, Producción petrolera de Venezuela sigue estancada pese a leve alza en septiembre, 13 October 2026; El Nacional, Expertos, académicos y políticos cuestionaron legalidad y transparencia del acuerdo petrolero entre Venezuela y EE UU, 12 October 2026; Efecto Cocuyo, Susana Raffalli desmiente a Delcy Rodríguez: Los Clap se usaron como instrumento de control electoral, 13 October 2026; Efecto Cocuyo, Gobierno interino levanta la suspensión de uso de drones en Venezuela, 13 October 2026.
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