UGANDA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- The country Uganda, a landlocked East African nation, sells gold and coffee and buys fuel and manufactured goods.
- Balance of Trade September deficit of US$980.1 million; estimate US$280 million; previous US$1,143.7 million.
- Trade flows Exports fell 4.7% to US$1,422.0 million, while imports fell 8.9% to US$2,402.1 million.
- Gold Gold made up 59% of exports, at US$840.0 million from 6,170.9 kilograms.
- Next release Uganda’s central bank lists Thursday 3 December 2026 for the October trade data.
Uganda’s goods trade deficit stood at US$980.1 million in September 2026, according to data that the Bank of Uganda, the country’s central bank, published on Wednesday 4 November 2026. That is narrower than the record US$1,143.7 million of August but far wider than the US$280 million that an economic-calendar consensus estimate had expected.
For US readers, in our reading the gap shows how costly freight and a weak currency press on a growing East African economy that sells coffee and gold to world markets. The central bank raised its main interest rate to 12.0% on Wednesday 14 October 2026, so the trade numbers matter for anyone who holds Ugandan assets or does business there.
What Happened
The Bank of Uganda’s tables show exports of US$1,422.0 million and imports of US$2,402.1 million for September, with freight and insurance counted in the import bill. The difference is a deficit of US$980.1 million, about US$163.7 million smaller than in August.
Exports fell 4.7% from August’s US$1,492.1 million, while imports dropped 8.9% from US$2,635.8 million. Against September 2025, exports are up 47.7% and imports are up 38.0%, so the deficit is about 26% wider than the US$778.3 million of a year ago.
How the Estimate Compares
An economic-calendar consensus estimate had pointed to a deficit of US$280 million, but the bank’s lower free-on-board measure, which leaves out freight and insurance, shows US$694.3 million. Either way the gap is wider than forecast, and we could not establish what basis the estimate used.
Freight and insurance added about US$285.8 million to the import bill in September. The central bank has said that Middle East tensions have raised oil prices and shipping costs.
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Gold and Coffee
Gold exports were US$840.0 million, or 59% of all exports, and coffee earned US$186.9 million on 735,435 bags of 60 kilograms. Gold earnings slipped from US$889.0 million in August, while coffee rose from US$181.7 million.
Cotton, maize and flowers all earned less than in August, and maize fell from US$13.3 million to US$4.6 million. Informal cross-border trade with neighbours added US$86.2 million to exports, down from US$99.8 million.
What Uganda Imported
Formal private-sector imports were US$2,087.0 million, of which fuel was US$196.9 million and all other goods US$1,890.1 million. Fuel imports fell from US$244.6 million in August, so non-fuel goods now make up about nine of every ten dollars of that bill.
Our report on the record August deficit showed how a jump in imports drove the gap. September shows the first step back, but imports remain 38.0% above a year ago.
What It Means for You
If you hold Ugandan bonds or trade with Ugandan firms, a deficit near US$1 billion a month points, in our reading, to steady demand for dollars. That is a pressure on the shilling, the local currency, which the central bank also cites in its October rate rise to 12.0%.
Coffee shipments held near 735,000 bags in September, so supply to buyers looks steady. Companies that sell goods into Uganda should watch the shilling, which the central bank says is under depreciation pressure.
What Would Narrow the Gap
The gap would narrow if bullion and coffee prices rise, if fuel and freight costs ease, or if a weaker shilling slows import demand. The central bank's higher rate is aimed at inflation and the shilling, so any effect on trade would show only in later releases.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether October will bring a smaller deficit, because that release is due on Thursday 3 December 2026. We also could not confirm what basis the calendar estimate of US$280 million used.
Trade tables are often revised, so the bank may restate September later. We found no commentary from the bank on the September figures.
More: Uganda news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Was Uganda's Trade Deficit in September 2026?
The Bank of Uganda reported a goods deficit of US$980.1 million for September 2026. That is down from the record US$1,143.7 million in August.
Why Is Uganda's Trade Gap So Wide?
Imports of US$2,402.1 million are far larger than exports of US$1,422.0 million. Bullion and coffee make up most exports, while about nine of every ten dollars of formal private imports are goods other than fuel.
When Is the Next Uganda Trade Release?
The Bank of Uganda lists Thursday 3 December 2026 as its next release date. It will cover October.
Sources: Bank of Uganda, Composition of Exports and Composition of Imports tables (September 2026 data), released 4 November 2026; Bank of Uganda, Monetary Policy Statement for October 2026, 14 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief