Key Facts
—The result. Lula, Brazil’s left-wing president, won Sunday’s runoff with 51.79%, beating conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 4.4 million votes.
—US vote. Brazilians registered in the US backed Flávio Bolsonaro with 62.65%, the reverse of the national result.
—Washington. Trump said the election “looked like another rigged election” but offered no evidence.
—The dispute. Flávio Bolsonaro has spoken of seeking annulment in court; we found no court ruling in his favour.
—Next. The electoral court certifies Lula by 18 December; he takes office on 5 January 2027.
—Power Index. Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil re-elected Lula on Sunday, yet the loser, Flávio Bolsonaro, refuses to concede and Trump called the election “rigged”.
In Plain English
- Lula: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s left-wing president, elected to a fourth term.
- Flávio Bolsonaro: A conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who lost the runoff.
- TSE: The Superior Electoral Court, the authority that counts Brazil’s votes and announces results.
- Diplomação: The formal certification of the winner by the TSE, due by 18 December.
Lula Wins a Fourth Term
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court announced on Sunday night that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had won the presidential runoff with 51.79% of valid votes. He beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who took 48.21%, by about 4.4 million votes.
Lula received 64,256,232 votes against 59,826,041. In his victory speech he said Brazil would not accept being “anyone’s backyard”.
Flávio had led the first round on 4 October by 1.87 percentage points. About 19.2% of registered voters stayed home in the runoff.
The TSE’s formal certification of the winner, called diplomação, is due by 18 December. Lula is due to be sworn in on 5 January 2027.
What Trump Said About the Result
US President Donald Trump said the election “looked like another rigged election” and called the voting extension “very strange”. He offered no evidence of irregularities.
As of Monday morning we found no congratulation to Lula from the White House or the State Department. US Senator Bernie Sanders congratulated him on social media.
Why Brazilians in the US Voted the Other Way
Brazilians registered to vote in the United States backed Flávio by 62.65% to Lula’s 37.35%. The count covered 11 US voting locations.
Flávio won 53,718 votes there and Lula 32,023, a gap of 21,695. Nationally Lula won by about 3.6 percentage points.
Flávio’s best result was Orlando with 81.01%, followed by Miami with 76.64% and Boston with 71.58%. Lula won San Francisco with 65.18%, Chicago with 63.84%, Washington with 57.56%, Los Angeles with 55.03% and New York with 52.40%.
Turnout rose to 87,407 voters from 75,389 in the first round. Even so, 67.02% of the 265,047 registered voters in the US did not vote.
Can Flávio Bolsonaro Overturn It?
Flávio refused to concede and has spoken of seeking annulment of the election in court. He objects to a decision by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin to keep polling places open two extra hours.
Both campaigns had asked for more voting time: Lula’s side nationwide, Flávio’s side in 17 towns. Kassio Nunes Marques, who heads the electoral court (TSE) and sits on the Supreme Court, says the extension changed nothing in the count.
To cancel a presidential vote, a court would need to find an illegality that changed who won. That is a very high bar.
Flávio’s conservative Liberal Party later recognised the result in a statement signed by its president, Valdemar Costa Neto, while saying some issues needed to be clarified.
What Links These Stories
The common thread is the gap between the official count and the political reaction to it. Lula won clearly, yet the loser refuses to concede and the US president questioned the outcome.
That gap is the first test of Lula’s new term: a divided country and a lower house where Flávio’s Liberal Party holds the largest bench, 121 of 513 seats.
The reports behind this Big Read
What It Means for US Readers
For US exporters and investors, Lula’s win means continuity in Brasília, and Washington’s reaction is the next signal to watch.
For Brazilians living in the US, the vote showed how divided that community is. Flávio won six of the 11 US voting locations and Lula five, including New York and Los Angeles.
What to Watch Next
Watch whether the White House or State Department formally recognises Lula’s win, and whether Flávio files his promised annulment request before certification on 18 December.
Lula is due to be sworn in on 5 January 2027.
What Is Not Known
Whether Flávio Bolsonaro will file an annulment request, and on what legal grounds, is not yet clear. No court has accepted one.
Whether the White House will formally recognise the result is not known.
Sources
Superior Electoral Court (TSE) · The Rio Times · The Rio Times · The Rio Times · The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Trump question Lula’s win?
Yes. He said the election “looked like another rigged election” and offered no evidence of irregularities.
Can Flávio Bolsonaro overturn the election?
No court has accepted his challenge. Cancelling a presidential vote requires an illegality that changed who won, a very high bar.
Why did Brazilians in the US vote differently?
Flávio won six of 11 US voting locations, led by Orlando and Miami, with 62.65% overall. Lula won five, including San Francisco, Chicago and New York.