Paraná Governor Poll in Brazil Puts Sergio Moro on 44.7%

BRAZIL · ELECTIONS

The Paraná governor poll gives Sergio Moro a lead of more than twenty points. The judge who convicted a president is now running a state race.

What the Poll Says

A Paraná Pesquisas survey published on 18 September 2026 puts Sergio Moro of the Liberal Party on 44.7% of voting intentions for governor of Paraná, Brazil.

Requião Filho of the PDT follows on 23%, and Sandro Alex of the PSD on 19.7%. No other candidate reaches 1%.

Luiz França of Missão has 0.7%. Doutor Alexandre Salomão of Mobiliza and Tayna Miessa of UP have 0.4% each, and Adriano Funileiro of the PCO and Samuel de Mattos of the PSTU 0.3% each.

Blank votes, null votes or no candidate account for 5.8%. Another 4.8% are undecided or gave no opinion.

The institute surveyed 1,280 voters across 57 municipalities from 15 to 17 September, with a margin of error of 2.8 points at a 95% confidence level. The survey was commissioned by the company Sedek and registered with the electoral court as PR-01022/2026.

Why the Numbers Are Unusual

A lead of more than twenty points at this stage is large by the standards of Brazilian state races. Those are typically fragmented across four or five viable candidates.

Moro is on 44.7%, which is short of the half of valid votes needed to avoid a runoff, but the arithmetic is favourable. Once blanks, nulls and undecideds are excluded, his share of valid votes rises.

The second and third candidates are within four points of each other. Which of them reaches a runoff, if there is one, is the more open question in these numbers.

Requião Filho carries one of the most recognised political surnames in Paraná, as the son of a former governor and senator. Sandro Alex has the backing of a party with a strong municipal base.

Who Sergio Moro Is

Moro was the federal judge who presided over the Lava Jato corruption cases in Curitiba, and who convicted the former president Lula in 2017.

He later became justice minister under President Bolsonaro and resigned in 2020. Brazil’s supreme court subsequently annulled the Lula convictions and ruled that Moro had not been impartial.

He was elected senator for Paraná in 2022. A state governorship would be a different job from either of his previous ones, and a considerably larger executive one.

Paraná is one of Brazil’s wealthier states, with a large agricultural and industrial base and the port of Paranaguá, the country’s second-busiest.

That makes the race consequential beyond its politics. Whoever governs Paraná manages one of the main export corridors in South America.

The state is also one of the few where a national figure can run without the race becoming a referendum on Brasília. Paraná has a long habit of voting on state competence.

Moro’s own standing there has been tested before. He was elected to the senate from this state in 2022, which is the most direct evidence that his name still carries locally.

What It Means If You Live in Brazil

For foreign residents in Paraná, the practical stake is administrative. A governor sets state tax policy, infrastructure priorities and the terms on which the port operates.

For exporters anywhere in the south, the same point applies with more force. Paranaguá handles a large share of Brazil’s grain and protein exports, and state policy shapes its investment.

As with any single poll, the reading to take is the shape rather than the decimal. A twenty-point gap is informative; the difference between 44.7% and 45% is not.

The registration number and the fieldwork dates are published by law, and they are the first things to check before quoting any Brazilian poll.

It is also worth knowing who commissioned a survey. This one was paid for by a company rather than by a media organisation, which is legal and disclosed, and which is why the disclosure exists.

Read against the Ceará race, where two houses published opposite leaders on the same day, a twenty-point gap is the more robust kind of finding. It would take a systematic error to reverse it.

The election has not happened. This is a measurement of intentions three days before publication, not a result.

What Is Not Settled

Whether the race goes to a runoff is the main open question. That depends on Moro’s share of valid votes on the day rather than on his share of all responses now.

The contest for second place is close enough that it could change with a single week of campaigning.

Paraná Pesquisas is one house among several, and other institutes may produce different numbers. A series is worth more than a snapshot.

Campaign events, debates and any legal developments can move all of these figures before the vote.

The poll also does not report a runoff scenario, so how Moro would fare against either of his two closest rivals head to head is unmeasured here.

Nor does it break the result down by region, which matters in a state where Curitiba and the agricultural interior vote differently.

Vice-presidential and senate slates are not covered either. In Brazilian state elections those tickets often move the governor’s own numbers.

Connected Coverage

• Ceará Runoff Poll in Brazil Puts Elmano on 48% and Ciro Gomes on 45%
• Brazil State Polls: Moro Ahead in Paraná, Zucco in the South
• Cost of Living Curitiba Brazil 2026: Cheap Rent, Tight Wages

Sources

• CNN Brasil — Paraná Pesquisas: Sergio Moro lidera disputa pelo governo do PR com 44,7%
• Poder360 — Sergio Moro lidera disputa pelo governo do PR, diz pesquisa

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Frequently Asked Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Paraná governor poll show?

Sergio Moro of the Liberal Party on 44.7%, Requião Filho of the PDT on 23% and Sandro Alex of the PSD on 19.7%. No other candidate reaches 1%.

How was it conducted?

Paraná Pesquisas surveyed 1,280 voters across 57 municipalities from 15 to 17 September 2026, with a 2.8-point margin of error at 95% confidence. It was commissioned by Sedek and registered as PR-01022/2026.

Will there be a runoff?

The poll does not settle that. Moro is short of half of all responses, but blanks, nulls and undecideds are excluded when valid votes are counted, which raises his share.

Who is Sergio Moro?

The former federal judge who presided over the Lava Jato cases in Curitiba and convicted the former president Lula in 2017, later justice minister and, since 2022, a senator for Paraná.