Brazil State Polls: Moro Ahead in Paraná, Zucco in the South
Brazil · ELECTIONS 2026
Key Facts
- —What happened New polls show Moro, Zucco, and Riedel leading governor races.
- —How big Moro has 45% in Paraná; Zucco 44.3% in Rio Grande do Sul.
- —The catch Each state was polled by a different firm, not one survey.
- —Who it hits Candidates in four states: Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, and the Federal District.
- —What comes next Elections are in October; polls may shift before then.
Recent polls in four Brazilian states show different frontrunners. Each survey was run by a different pollster.
Sérgio Moro leads the race for governor of Paraná with 45 percent, a new poll shows. Separate surveys put other candidates ahead in three more states.
Paraná: Moro Leads
A Paraná Pesquisas poll released on 3 September 2026 puts Sérgio Moro on 45 percent in the first round. He runs for the Liberal Party.
Requião Filho of the Democratic Labour Party (PDT) follows with 24%, and Sandro Alex of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) has 17.5%.
The poll was conducted in person with 1,280 voters across 56 municipalities in Paraná between 31 August and 2 September 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Rio Grande do Sul: Zucco Ahead
An AtlasIntel poll reported by Poder360 on 3 September 2026 puts Luciano Zucco on 44.3 percent in Rio Grande do Sul.
Juliana Brizola of the Democratic Labour Party has 37.5 percent.
AtlasIntel interviewed 1,800 voters from 27 August to 1 September 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, registered as RS-00652/2026.
Mato Grosso do Sul: Riedel Comfortable
Another AtlasIntel poll, reported by Gazeta do Povo on 3 September 2026, puts Eduardo Riedel on 49 percent. That is the first-round figure for Mato Grosso do Sul, where he governs for the Progressistas.
Agência Estado and UOL reported that AtlasIntel interviewed 1,204 voters aged 16 or over in Mato Grosso do Sul. The fieldwork ran from 27 August to 1 September 2026, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Federal District: Technical Tie
An AtlasIntel poll reported on 3 September 2026 found Governor Celina Leão on 30.7 percent.
Former federal deputy Leandro Grass had 29 percent in the first round, which is a technical tie.
In one runoff scenario, Leao had 43.6% against 41.1% for Grass, also within the margin of error. The poll interviewed 1,193 voters, with a margin of error of 3 points.
Different Pollsters, Different States
These polls come from different firms, so they are not one unified survey. Paraná Pesquisas handled Paraná, while AtlasIntel ran the other three states.
Each poll has its own methodology and margin of error. Readers should compare them with caution.
What a Governor Does in Brazil
In Brazil, a state governor is the top executive of a state, similar to a US governor. They manage state budgets, public security, education, and health services.
Governors are elected for four-year terms and can be re-elected. They work with state legislatures to pass laws and approve spending.
Paraná Poll Details
The Paraná Pesquisas poll also tested a scenario without a candidate list, but the stimulated numbers are the most cited. Moro’s lead is significant, but the race is not over.
A separate Real Time Big Data poll from 24 to 27 August 2026 showed Moro on 35 percent.
Sandro Alex had 23 percent and Requião Filho 20 percent. That poll had 1,600 respondents and a margin of error of 2 points.
Rio Grande do Sul Race Tightens
Zucco’s lead over Brizola is about 7 points, which is within some margins of error. The AtlasIntel poll suggests a competitive race.
Brizola is from a traditional political family in the state. Her party, the PDT, has a strong base in the south.
Mato Grosso do Sul: Riedel’s Strength
Riedel’s 49% is close to an outright majority, which could avoid a runoff. In Brazil, if no candidate gets over 50% of valid votes, the top two go to a second round.
Trad and Catan trail far behind, but they could still force a runoff if they gain support. The election is scheduled for October.
Federal District: Leao and Grass
The technical tie in the Federal District means the race is too close to call. Leao is the incumbent, while Grass is a former federal deputy.
The Federal District is unique because it is not a state but a district that houses the capital, Brasília. Its governor has similar powers to state governors.
Polling Methodology Notes
Paraná Pesquisas used in-person interviews, while AtlasIntel typically uses online or phone methods. These differences can affect results.
Sample sizes ranged from 1,193 to 1,800 voters across the four states. Margins of error ranged from 2 to 3 points, and 2.8 points for the Paraná Pesquisas poll.
What to Watch Next
Campaigns will intensify as the election approaches. New polls will show whether these leads hold.
Voters in Brazil will elect governors, senators, and federal deputies in October. The results will shape national politics.
Polling Methods and Margins
The Paraná Pesquisas poll for Paraná governor surveyed 1,280 voters in person across 56 municipalities. It ran from 31 August to 2 September 2026, registered as PR-03399/2026, with a margin of error of 2.8 points.
The AtlasIntel poll for Mato Grosso do Sul surveyed 1,204 voters aged 16 or over. It ran from 27 August to 1 September 2026, with a margin of error of 3 points.
The Real Time Big Data poll for Paraná interviewed 1,600 voters between 24 and 27 August 2026, with registration number PR-07845/2026. Its margin of error was 2 percentage points.
What the Numbers Mean
In the Paraná Pesquisas poll, Sérgio Moro’s 45% would win outright, avoiding a runoff. Requião Filho’s 24% and Sandro Alex’s 17.5% trail significantly.
In the AtlasIntel poll for Rio Grande do Sul, Luciano Zucco has 44.3%. Juliana Brizola has 37.5%.
The gap is within a typical margin of error, so the race could be close.
In Mato Grosso do Sul, Eduardo Riedel’s 49% suggests he is near an outright first-round win. Fábio Trad’s 26% and João Henrique Catan’s 12.4% show they are far behind.
In the Federal District, Celina Leão and Leandro Grass are in a reported technical tie. Their percentages are statistically indistinguishable, so either could win head-to-head.
Key Quotes and Sources
UOL Notícias quoted Paraná Pesquisas: “Senator Sérgio Moro (PL) leads the Paraná governor race with 45% of first-round voting intentions.”
Requião Filho (PDT) follows with 24%, according to Paraná Pesquisas.
Poder360 reported on the Rio Grande do Sul poll.
An AtlasIntel survey, released Thursday (Sept. 3, 2026), shows Luciano Zucco (PL) leading with 44.3%.
Juliana Brizola (PDT) is second with 37.5%.
Gazeta do Povo summed up Mato Grosso do Sul. Eduardo Riedel leads the stimulated first-round question with 49 percent of voting intentions.
Fábio Trad (PT) follows with 26%, and João Henrique Catan (Novo) has 12.4%.”
Veja described the Federal District race as technically tied in both rounds.
It said Governor Celina Leão and former federal deputy Leandro Grass were level in an AtlasIntel poll released that Thursday afternoon.
Context for Foreign Readers
These polls are snapshots of voter intentions at specific times, not predictions of the final result. They help campaigns adjust strategies and inform voters about the state of the race.
Paraná Pesquisas and AtlasIntel are private polling firms that use different methodologies, so their numbers can vary. Real Time Big Data is another firm that conducted a separate poll in Paraná with different results.
The governors elected in 2026 will manage state budgets, public security, education, and health services for four years. These races matter because state policies affect daily life for millions of Brazilians.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the governor race in Paraná?
Sérgio Moro leads with 45% in a Paraná Pesquisas poll. Requião Filho has 24%.
What is the margin of error for the Paraná poll?
The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. The poll surveyed 1,280 voters.
Are these polls from the same survey?
No, each state was polled by a different firm. Paraná used Paraná Pesquisas, while the others used AtlasIntel.
What does a state governor do in Brazil?
A governor manages state services like security, education, and health. They are elected for four years.
Connected Coverage
Sources: UOL Notícias; Poder360; Gazeta do Povo; Agência Estado; Veja; Brasil de Fato; TNOnline.
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