Oil Fund Falls 2.3% on G7 Release as Petrobras Jumps | Oil, Oct 5
Key Facts
- WTI crude fell about 2% to about US$89 and Brent fell about 2% to about US$100 after the G7 announced a release of strategic reserves (El CEO).
- The USO oil fund fell 2.29% to US$143.99 (RT). It tracks WTI futures.
- Petrobras’s New York shares jumped 11.50% to US$24.14 as Brazil’s election lifted Brazilian assets (RT).
- YPF gained 3.16% to US$51.24 and Ecopetrol 3.92% to US$17.25. Both are US-listed Latin American producers.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 72.5% to WTI touching US$85 and 57.0% to US$95 in October (US$835,701 traded). Bets, not forecasts. Stand: 8:43 pm ET, 5 October.
Today’s Focus
Oil prices fell on Monday after the G7 said it would release strategic stocks of crude and diesel. WTI fell about 2% to about US$89 and Brent fell about 2% to about US$100.
Latin American producers moved the other way. Petrobras’s New York shares jumped 11.50% as Brazil’s election lifted the country’s assets.
What matters today. For US drivers and investors, the release aims to ease fuel supply. For Latin America, the winners were stocks, not crude.
01 The session in one read
The G7 announced a release of 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months. WTI closed near US$89 and Brent near US$100, both about 2% lower (El CEO; Infobae).
The USO oil fund fell 2.29% to US$143.99. Petrobras rose 11.50% to US$24.14, YPF rose 3.16% and Ecopetrol rose 3.92%.
Crude fell on policy news. Latin American oil stocks rose on local and regional drivers.
The Petrobras move came on the day Brazil’s Ibovespa jumped 7.70%, so it says more about Brazilian politics than about oil.
02 The board
The table shows the USO fund and three US-listed Latin American oil producers.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$143.99 | -2.29% |
| Petrobras | US$24.14 | +11.50% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.25 | +3.92% |
| YPF | US$51.24 | +3.16% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-05. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 206,911.89 | +7.70% | +21.85% | 192,114.55 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,124.65 | +1.91% | — | 10,916.57 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 64,327.79 | -0.32% | +12.17% | 64,531.68 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,869,488 | +3.68% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,582.65 | +2.69% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,860.04 | +0.60% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
The G7 release is meant to calm fuel markets. It covers crude and diesel over four months.
For Petrobras, the main driver was Brazil’s first-round vote, which pushed up Brazilian assets. Ecopetrol rose with Colombia’s market, and YPF with Argentina’s.
04 The Latin American read
Brazil, Colombia and Argentina all rallied on Monday. State-linked oil companies gain when investors expect lower political risk or more market-friendly policy.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is the first name, followed by Ecopetrol and YPF.
06 The outlook
Crude’s next move depends on how quickly the G7 release reaches the market. Latin American oil shares depend on the Brazil runoff on 25 October.
07 What to watch
- G7 release details: How fast the barrels reach the market.
- Brazil’s runoff, 25 October: It drives Petrobras more than crude does.
- WTI at US$85: Polymarket traders see a high chance of a touch in October.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket prices a WTI touch of US$85 in October at 72.5% and a touch of US$95 at 57.0%. A touch of US$100 is at 27.5% and US$80 at 41.5% (US$835,701 traded). Readings from 8:43 pm ET on 5 October.
These prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by analysts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why did oil fall on Monday?
The G7 announced a release of strategic stocks of crude and diesel, and WTI and Brent fell about 2%.
Why did Petrobras jump while oil fell?
Brazil’s first-round election result lifted Brazilian assets, and Petrobras rose 11.50% in New York.
What is USO?
USO is a US-listed fund that holds WTI futures.
Which other Latin American oil stocks rose?
YPF rose 3.16% and Ecopetrol 3.92% in New York.
Market data: RT. Sources: El CEO, Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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