Published Wednesday, 11 November, 6:22 a.m. ET (Thursday, 12 November, 12:22 a.m. in Wellington) · Source: New Zealand party leaders, Electoral Commission, Polymarket, Kalshi
A party that did not exist in Parliament a week ago now holds the keys to New Zealand’s next government. Its leader, Qiulae Wong, has spent two hours this week with the two men who want her votes.
The talks follow the New Zealand general election of 7 November, which gave neither side a clear win. Wong leads the Opportunity Party, a new party that won seven seats.
Key Facts
- Who: Wong, leader of the Opportunity Party, met Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of the National Party and Chris Hipkins, leader of the Labour opposition.
- When: Luxon met Wong for an hour on Monday evening, 9 November, and Hipkins did so on Tuesday, 10 November (New Zealand time).
- Seats: National, ACT (a free-market party) and NZ First (a populist party) hold 67 of 131 seats, a two-seat majority.
- Next: The Electoral Commission, the independent election body, declares the final result on Friday, 27 November.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket puts Luxon at 87.5% to be prime minister and Kalshi at 85% (6:22 a.m. ET, 11 November).
Wong Meets Both Leaders
Luxon met Wong for an hour on Monday evening, 9 November, with his chief of staff, Cameron Burrows, and hers, Iain Lees-Galloway, in the room. Luxon called the meeting “very positive and constructive.”
Wong said the two had bonded over their private-sector backgrounds, sustainability and business. She met Hipkins for an hour on Tuesday, 10 November, in a meeting she described as mainly about understanding each other’s priorities.
Opportunity’s five bottom lines, the core policy demands it brings to any deal, came up only broadly. Wong said she and Luxon did not go through them in detail.
Why National Gets the First Call
Wong said Opportunity will talk with National first, because National won the most seats. It will turn to Labour if those talks stall, and she said this is “unlikely to change with the specials.”
“Specials” are special votes, ballots cast overseas or outside a voter’s home area and counted later. Wong also said she expects to keep talking with other leaders before they are counted.
Luxon had repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity during the campaign. After the party cleared the 5% party-vote threshold for seats, he said on Sunday, 8 November, that he wanted to build a relationship with it.
Where the Numbers Stand
On provisional results, the National-ACT-NZ First coalition holds 67 of 131 seats, and a majority needs 66. Opportunity holds seven.
With about 98% of votes counted, National had about 29.2% of the party vote, down from 38.1% in 2023. Labour had about 29.4%, the Greens, an environmental party, 13.3%, and Opportunity 6.0%.
The two big parties’ combined share of about 58.6% is the lowest since New Zealand adopted its proportional voting system, known as MMP, in 1996. Parliament has 131 seats instead of the usual 120 because of an “overhang,” which happens when a party wins more local seats than its party vote entitles it to.
Why Special Votes Matter
Special votes usually lean left, and counting them is expected to take about three weeks. About 399,000 were still uncounted on election night.
If they erode the coalition’s two-seat margin, Opportunity’s seven MPs could decide who governs. The Electoral Commission declares the final result on Friday, 27 November.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Polymarket, next prime minister of New Zealand: Luxon 87.5%, Hipkins 13.5% (US$350,197 traded).
- Polymarket, next government: National, ACT and NZ First 86.5%; Labour and Greens 10.8%.
- Kalshi, prime minister after the election: Luxon 85%, Hipkins 4%, Wong 3%. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Prices were read at 6:22 a.m. ET on 11 November and are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
New Zealand is a close US partner in trade and intelligence sharing, so the shape of its next government matters to Washington. A government that depends on a new party may also take longer to form.
Investors should expect no firm answer before 27 November. Until then, the markets favour a Luxon-led government.
What Is Not Known
Sources differ slightly on the exact seat and vote counts, and the final numbers will change as special votes come in. It is not known whether the specials will cost the coalition its majority, or whether Opportunity will back National or Labour.
The exact times of the two meetings, in ET, were not published.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who did Qiulae Wong meet?
She met Prime Minister Christopher Luxon for an hour on Monday evening, 9 November. She met Labour leader Chris Hipkins for an hour on Tuesday, 10 November.
When will New Zealand’s final result be known?
The Electoral Commission declares the final result, including special votes, on Friday, 27 November.
Related: Luxon softens his tone on the new party.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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