Published Saturday, 14 November 2026 · Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Maputo presentation, 11 November 2026
Rising fuel prices make Mozambique’s economy more vulnerable, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a global lender that advises governments, said in Maputo, the capital. Olamide Harrison, the IMF’s resident representative in Mozambique, said so on Wednesday, 11 November 2026.
For a foreign reader, the risk is concrete: Mozambique buys fuel abroad and is short of the foreign currency to pay for it. That squeeze reaches the state budget, importers and ordinary prices.
Key Facts
- Who. Olamide Harrison, the IMF’s resident representative in Mozambique, spoke in Maputo on Wednesday, 11 November 2026.
- Warning. Fuel prices worsen the foreign-currency shortage and budget pressures, Harrison said.
- Outlook. The IMF expects Mozambique’s foreign-currency reserves, the money held to pay for imports, to weaken in 2026.
- Growth. The IMF forecasts 1% growth in 2026, up from 0.5% in April, and 2% in 2027.
- Advice. Spend prudently, protect currency reserves and contain fuel-cost risks, the IMF advised.
In plain English
Terms of trade compare what a country earns for its exports with what it pays for imports. The current account is the balance of a country’s trade and income with the rest of the world.
What the IMF Said in Maputo
Harrison presented the IMF’s regional economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa to government, private-sector and banking representatives. Harrison said (translated from Portuguese): “In Mozambique, fuel prices worsen the foreign-currency shortage and budget pressures.”
Higher energy import bills raise the need for foreign currency, the IMF said. It expects Mozambique’s current account balance and foreign-exchange reserves to deteriorate in 2026, which limits the government’s room to respond to shocks.
The IMF recommends prudent public spending and protecting foreign-exchange reserves. It also warns that fuel costs add risk to public finances.
Why It Matters
Mozambique is one of 20 sub-Saharan economies whose terms of trade are expected to worsen in 2026, the IMF said on 11 November. That means the country pays more for imports such as fuel relative to what it earns from exports.
The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, its twice-yearly global forecast, puts Mozambique’s growth at 1% in 2026, up from 0.5% in April, and 2% in 2027, against 4.5% for sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. A view from South Africa’s Standard Bank group is in our report on its Mozambique growth outlook.
When pump prices are held below the real import cost, part of the cost shifts to the state budget, importers or public utilities, the IMF said. That can cause payment delays, shortages or rationing.
Households and firms that depend on imported fuel are the people exposed. Our Mozambique inflation rate report tracks the price side, and the IMF gave no pump-price forecast.
What to Watch
An IMF team led by Pablo Lopez-Murphy visited Maputo from 9 to 18 September 2026. Its closing statement said talks on reforms that could underpin an IMF-supported programme will continue in the coming months.
Mozambique’s Finance Ministry said on 11 September 2026 that it aims for approval of a programme by the IMF’s Executive Board, its governing body, by the end of 2026, a timetable the IMF has not confirmed. In June, the IMF said fuel and fertilizer prices had risen because of the Middle East war, and our guide to the key players in Mozambique’s economy covers the institutions involved.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how much Mozambique currently spends covering the fuel price gap, or whether and when pump prices will change. The IMF has not confirmed the Finance Ministry’s end-2026 target, and whether a programme will be agreed is open.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do higher fuel prices hurt Mozambique’s economy?
Mozambique pays for energy imports in foreign currency, which is already short, the IMF said on 11 November 2026. Higher bills increase the need for foreign currency.
What does the IMF say about fuel price controls?
When pump prices are held below the real import cost, part of the cost shifts to the state budget, importers or public utilities, the IMF said. That can cause payment delays, shortages or rationing.
What growth does the IMF expect for Mozambique?
The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook forecasts 1% growth in 2026, up from 0.5% in April, and 2% in 2027, as presented in Maputo on 11 November 2026. For sub-Saharan Africa overall it projects 4.5% in 2026.
Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF), presentation of the sub-Saharan Africa regional economic outlook, Maputo, 11 November 2026; IMF World Economic Outlook database, October 2026; IMF press release 26/199, 12 June 2026, imf.org.
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