Model Used by US Government Projects 88,000 Deaths in Brazil by August

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – One of the main models used by the White House to monitor the numbers on the coronavirus has projected a gloomy scenario for Brazilians in coming months.

According to data released this week by the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) at the University of Washington, 88,305 people may die from Covid-19 in Brazil by August 4th. The model uses a wide interval window, which in the Brazilian case ranges from 30,302 to 193,786 deaths in the period, but indicates that the death curve will only increase until that time.

Projections show that the peak of daily deaths in Brazil should occur on July 1st, with 1,024 deaths in 24 hours. As with the total projection, the daily death forecast also follows a variation that ranges between 182 and 2,613.

On Tuesday, May 12th, Brazil recorded 881 deaths due to the coronavirus, a new daily record. In all, there are over 12,400 deaths and 176,000 infections in the country, which has passed France and has become the sixth-highest nation with confirmed cases in the world.

In June, the number of deaths in Brazil will reach the 27,000 mark, according to the projection used as a guideline by the White House, and when the daily peak comes one month later, the total number of deaths should skyrocket to 57,000.

From then on, the daily death curve would begin to drop, but would still reach August with almost 780 daily fatalities.

The model used by the White House gained notoriety on March 31st, when President Donald Trump made his first gloomy speech and was viewed as realistic during the pandemic that he initially downplayed. At the time, Trump said that between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths were expected in the US by August, even with the adoption of social distancing measures.

These numbers have been revised up and down a few times, depending on the easing of the spread curve – and the relaxation of social distancing rules in several American states.

The American President at the time said that if isolation measures were not complied with, that number could amount to as many as 2.2 million victims.

At that time, the US recorded 3,700 deaths, today there are more than 82,800 and 1.37 million confirmed cases.

The institute also estimates the amount of medical resources, such as ICU beds and ventilators, that countries will require during peak periods.

In the Brazilian case, on July 1st there would be at least 7.000 ICU beds lacking, since 11.168 will be required but only 4.060 will be available. The required ventilators in the peak month, July, will amount to 9,800, but the IHME index does not show how many will be available.

President Jair Bolsonaro has been a focus of concern among political leaders and experts around the world for persisting in downplaying the pandemic and opposing the social distancing rules.

Trump, an ally of the Brazilian, has already signaled that he may take measures such as suspending flights from Brazil to the US should the situation in the South American country continue to worsen.

With 95 percent of Americans adopting social distancing rules since March, the IHME’s figures have been revised downwards, and the institute has reportedly projected 60,000 deaths by August.

The perceived optimism prompted Trump to advocate the country’s economic reopening, concerned about the negative impact the pandemic could have on his re-election campaign – more than 30 million Americans have already applied for unemployment benefits.

Since late April, more than 40 US states have begun to partially restart activities, but without the testing rate that is considered optimal for a safe reopening or even a sustained drop in the case curve.

As a result of the openings, the institute revised its data once again, this time upwards.

On Wednesday, May 13th, the IHME projected that 147,000 people could die from Covid-19 in the US by August, which means that the level is back to the first rather gloomy projection, announced by the White House a month and a half ago.

However, the numbers pointing to the need for ventilators and ICU beds in the US have been decreasing since mid-May.

Nevertheless, experts fear a second wave of coronavirus in the US and that many states will again be forced to implement distancing measures.

Source: Folhapress