MEXICO · WEATHER
Key Facts
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
- What is happening Vance has faded to a remnant low off Mexico, and its leftover moisture is heading into Texas and New Mexico.
- Why it matters Mazatlán and Los Cabos, popular with Americans, face rough surf, while West Texas faces flash-flood risk.
- The numbers Mexico’s coast may get 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rain, with isolated totals above 4 inches (100 mm).
- Who is who The NHC is the US storm-tracking agency in Miami; the SMN is Mexico’s weather service; the WPC forecasts US rain.
- What to watch Flash flooding in West and Central Texas on Friday, and any damage found along the Sinaloa coast.
- What it means for you Check flights, avoid arroyos and surf in Los Cabos and Mazatlán, and heed flash-flood alerts in Texas.
Storm Vance has faded off Mexico’s Pacific coast, but its leftover moisture is raising flood risk in Texas and New Mexico. Heavy rain and dangerous surf remain possible in Sinaloa and southern Baja California.
Storm Vance, a Category 2 hurricane last weekend, is now a remnant low, a leftover area of rain, off Mexico’s coast. Mazatlán and Los Cabos face rough surf, with no storm warnings in effect.
What Happened
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC), a Miami storm tracker, issued its final advisory at 11 p.m. ET on Thursday, 29 October. It put the remnants 190 miles (310 km) south-southwest of Mazatlán, moving north-northeast at 8 mph.
Vance peaked on Friday, 23 October as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph (175 km/h) winds. It briefly regained tropical-storm strength early on Thursday before fading.
Rain and Surf in Mexico
The NHC expects 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rain in southern Sinaloa, southwestern Durango and northwestern Nayarit. Isolated totals above 4 inches (100 mm) are possible on the Sinaloa coast, with flood and mudslide risk.
Mexico’s weather service, the SMN, forecast on Thursday morning 75 to 150 mm (3 to 6 inches) for central and southern Sinaloa. It forecast 50 to 75 mm (2 to 3 inches) for southern Baja California Sur, western Durango and northern Nayarit.
The NHC says swells from Vance are likely to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to Mexico’s west coast and southern Baja. The SMN forecast waves of 2 to 3 m.
Why It Matters
The NHC says Vance’s moisture will add rain over the US Southwest and Southern Plains, with a flash-flood threat for days. The US Weather Prediction Center (WPC) rates West and Central Texas and southeastern New Mexico at slight risk of excessive rainfall.
On Thursday evening the WPC said local totals near 5 inches (125 mm) are possible at the Mexican border. It tied the storms to a disturbance “previously associated with Vance”.
Los Cabos flooded on Tuesday, 27 October, when heavy rain swept cars into an arroyo, a normally dry creek bed. The earlier Los Cabos report has the details, including what authorities had and had not confirmed by Wednesday.
What It Means for You
If you are in Los Cabos, Mazatlán or Nayarit, check airline and hotel alerts and stay out of the surf. Keep away from arroyos and flooded streets, and follow Protección Civil, each state’s civil-defence service.
If you live in West or Central Texas or southeastern New Mexico, follow National Weather Service flash-flood alerts. Never drive through flooded roads, because even shallow moving water can carry a car away.
More is on the Mexico hub, and the Mexico security guide lists travel advice for US visitors. Thursday’s Big Read for Mexico tracks the other main stories.
What Is Not Known
As of 3:50 a.m. ET on Friday, 30 October, no authority has published damage, injury or death figures for Vance. Port closures, flight cancellations and actual flooding in Sinaloa, Texas or New Mexico are also unconfirmed.
The NHC’s final advisory ended its tracking, so later Mexican rain totals will come from the SMN and local authorities. How much rain falls in Texas and New Mexico depends on storms that are still developing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is Vance now?
The NHC’s final advisory put its remnants 190 miles (310 km) south-southwest of Mazatlán at 11 p.m. ET Thursday. It no longer has a well-defined centre, and no more advisories will follow.
Is it safe for Americans to visit Los Cabos or Mazatlán?
No watches or warnings were in effect, but the NHC warns of life-threatening surf and rip currents. Check flights and hotel alerts, and avoid flooded streets, arroyos and the sea.
Will Vance hit Texas?
Not as a storm, because it has lost its centre. Its leftover moisture is raising flash-flood risk in West and Central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, forecasters say.
Why is the storm called Vance?
Vance is the 20th name on the 2026 eastern Pacific list, which the World Meteorological Organization, the UN weather agency, approves. The NHC, which tracks these storms, takes each name in order.
Sources: US National Hurricane Center, Remnants of Vance advisory 35 (final), 29 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Vance advisory 11, 23 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, Vance advisory archive; US Weather Prediction Center, Excessive Rainfall Discussion, 29 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, tropical cyclone names; Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Mexico’s national weather service, cyclone bulletin of 29 October 2026 (accessed 30 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief