Mexico Says Homicides Fell 53% Under Sheinbaum. What the Figure Leaves Out
MEXICO · SECURITY
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico has about 130 million people and Latin America’s second-largest economy. Its homicide rate roughly tripled between 2006 and 2018, driven largely by wars between drug cartels.
- —The background President Claudia Sheinbaum took office on 1 October 2024. Her government measures progress by the daily average of intentional-homicide victims, set against September 2024, her predecessor’s last month.
- —Why now She marks two years in office on Thursday. On Sunday she closed a tour of all 32 states in Mexico City’s main square, and her allies seized on the figure within hours.
- —What happened On 27 September her security minister and the ruling Morena party both credited the government with a 53% fall. Official data put August 2026 at 40.8 killings a day, against 86.9 in September 2024.
- —The numbers That is about 46 fewer victims a day: one killing every 35 minutes instead of every 17. The preliminary annualised rate for 2026 is 12.9 per 100,000 people, against 29.1 at the 2018 peak.
- —What it means for you The fall is real and broad, but violence stays concentrated: seven of 32 states account for about half of this year’s cases. Local conditions still matter more than the national average.
- —Still open No independent count for 2026 exists yet. Feminicides, disappearances and extortion are not in the headline figure.
Mexico’s government and ruling party are leaning on one number as President Claudia Sheinbaum nears her second anniversary. Intentional homicides, it says, have fallen 53% since she took office.
On Sunday, after she closed a national tour in Mexico City’s Zócalo, her security minister and ruling party repeated it. The figure is official, but it measures something narrower than violence, from a baseline the government chose.
Who said what on Sunday
Omar García Harfuch, the security minister who leads the federal campaign against cartels, congratulated Sheinbaum on X after her speech. “The 53% reduction in intentional homicides reflects the daily and coordinated work of all the institutions” in the Security Cabinet, he wrote.
He added a note of caution, according to the Mexican outlet Eje Central. “These advances are important, but we know there is still a lot to do.”
Morena, the governing party, issued a statement the same day in the name of its national leadership, chaired by Ariadna Montiel Reyes. It said intentional homicides had fallen 53% two years into Sheinbaum’s government.
The party credited stronger intelligence, investigation and coordination between federal, state and local authorities. The figure itself is not new: the federal crime-statistics office first presented it on 8 September.
What the 53% measures
That office is the SESNSP, the executive secretariat of Mexico’s public security system, which compiles monthly crime reports. Its head, Marcela Figueroa, presented the numbers at the president’s morning press conference.
The claim compares two single months. In September 2024 an average of 86.9 intentional-homicide victims a day were recorded; in August 2026, 40.8.
The same series showed a 51% fall to July, announced in August.
Figueroa said August was the lowest month of Sheinbaum’s term and the least violent August in more than a decade. It was 32.1% below August 2025, according to Mexico News Daily’s account of the briefing.
The data come from the 32 state prosecutors’ offices. They count victims in criminal investigations opened for intentional homicide, not death certificates.
On that basis the preliminary annualised rate for 2026 is 12.9 per 100,000 people, against 25.4 in 2024. Even 40.8 killings a day adds up to nearly 15,000 a year.
Why the starting point matters
September 2024 was the last month under Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum’s predecessor and political mentor. Measuring from it puts the whole fall on her watch.
A comparison of two single months can exaggerate any trend, because months vary. The year-on-year figure, 32.1% below August 2025, is the steadier yardstick, and it is still large.
What the figure leaves out
Feminicide, the killing of a woman because of her gender, is recorded as a separate crime and is not in the 53%. It fell only 5.2% in January to August against the same months of 2025.
Disappearances are not in it either, and Mexico has more than 135,000 people registered as missing. The research group Data Cívica said this month the register is too unstable to give a reliable total.
México Evalúa, a Mexico City think tank, found in May that homicides fell 33% year on year in the first quarter. Adding feminicides, disappearances and other killings, the fall in lethal violence shrank to 22%.
It offered three possible explanations: effective security policy, criminal groups that control territory without needing to kill, and inconsistent prosecutors’ data. It noted that some offices file attempted homicides under other categories.
Sheinbaum rejects claims that killings are being reclassified. “Homicide is homicide, there is no manipulation,” she said on 14 July, as quoted by Mexico News Daily.
The independent check
INEGI, Mexico’s national statistics institute, counts homicides from death certificates rather than police files. Its figures come once a year, several months after the year ends.
On 3 August it reported 27,989 presumed homicides for 2025, a rate of 21.4 per 100,000 against 25.8 in 2024. That fall of about 17% confirms the direction of travel.
It covers only the first full year of Sheinbaum’s term, however. INEGI has published nothing for 2026, so the steepest part of the claimed fall has not yet been checked independently.
What comes next
The September figures are due in early October, just after the anniversary on 1 October. Mexico holds midterm elections in 2027, and Morena is already claiming the fall as its own.
Fewer killings help Mexico’s pitch to companies moving production closer to the United States. Seven states, led by Guanajuato, Baja California and Chihuahua, still account for 49.3% of this year’s homicides.
Homicides fell in 30 of 32 states in the first eight months of 2026. Quintana Roo, home to Cancún, reported a drop of about 60%, and Baja California Sur, home to Los Cabos, 53.8%.
The 53% does not mean Mexico is half as dangerous in every sense. Reported extortion fell only 2.8% in the first eight months, and disappearances sit outside the count.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did killings in Mexico really fall by half?
Official prosecutors’ data show the daily average of intentional-homicide victims fell from 86.9 in September 2024 to 40.8 in August 2026. Year on year, August was down 32.1%. The national statistics institute confirms a decline in 2025 but has no 2026 data yet.
Why do critics doubt the figure?
It excludes feminicides and disappearances, and it depends on how 32 state prosecutors classify cases. The think tank México Evalúa has said the fall may partly reflect data inconsistencies or cartels controlling territory without killing.
Is Mexico safer for travellers now?
Recorded homicides fell in 30 of 32 states this year, including Quintana Roo and Baja California Sur, home to Cancún and Los Cabos. Risk still varies sharply from state to state, so local advice matters more than the national average.
When is the next figure due?
The government presents monthly security data at the president’s morning press conference, usually in the first half of the following month. The September numbers should come in early October.
Sources: Eje Central, García Harfuch post on X, 27 September 2026, Infobae, Morena statement, 27 September 2026, Proceso, SESNSP security report, 8 September 2026, El Financiero, 8 September 2026, Contralínea, 8 September 2026, Mexico News Daily, 8 September 2026, INEGI, homicide deaths 2025 (preliminary), 3 August 2026, Proceso on México Evalúa, 13 May 2026, El Imparcial on México Evalúa, 5 May 2026, Americas Quarterly, September 2026, SIPAZ on Data Cívica, 8 September 2026. Background: The Rio Times, 12 August 2026 and 27 September 2026. All retrieved 28 September 2026. The Morena text is a party statement, not independent confirmation.
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