Persistent Mexican Peso Rally Pushes USD/MXN Toward Key Support Levels

The Mexican peso maintained its advance against the U.S. dollar on June 10, 2025, closing at 19.0424 per dollar, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico.

The move followed a day where renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations in London improved investor sentiment, even as Mexico’s May inflation exceeded the central bank’s 3% target.

The dollar traded in a narrow range, with a session high of 19.1082 and a low of 19.0272. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.17% to 99.02 points, reflecting a broader weakening of the greenback.

Market participants responded to the resumption of high-level talks between Washington and Beijing, which focused on rare earth minerals and technology.

The positive tone from these discussions increased risk appetite and supported emerging market currencies, especially the peso. Despite higher-than-expected inflation, which typically pressures the peso, the currency benefited from the global shift away from the dollar.

Technical analysis of the daily USD/MXN chart confirms the bearish trend. The pair trades well below the 50, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages, with the 200-day SMA near 20.10, the 100-day at 19.61, and the 50-day at 19.39.

The price remains under the Ichimoku Cloud and below all key moving averages, reinforcing the downward bias. Bollinger Bands show the pair hugging the lower band, suggesting persistent selling pressure.

The 19.00 level acts as a psychological and technical support. If broken, analysts point to 18.80 as the next target. The 4-hour chart reinforces this view, with the price below all major moving averages and the Ichimoku Cloud.

Short-term resistance appears at 19.12–19.22, while immediate support sits just above 19.00. No signs of reversal emerged during the last 24 hours, and the trend remains firmly down.

Macroeconomic factors also influenced the peso’s performance. Mexico’s central bank cut rates to 8.50% in May, narrowing the yield gap with the U.S., but the peso’s strength persists due to external dollar weakness.

Remittances, which reached $65 billion in 2024, continue to support the Mexican economy. ETF inflows into Mexican equities and outflows from U.S. dollar assets reflect ongoing risk appetite.

The peso’s appreciation over the past month, up about 3%, highlights its resilience. Exporters face challenges from a stronger peso, while importers benefit from reduced costs.

The S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.43% on inflation concerns, showing that currency and equity markets can diverge. In summary, the peso’s gains stem from improved global risk sentiment, technical momentum, and solid fundamentals.

The 19.00 level remains crucial. A sustained break below could accelerate the move toward 18.80, while any rebound will likely meet resistance at 19.12–19.30. The next move depends on developments in trade talks and further economic data.