The Mexican peso faced a tumultuous year in 2024, emerging as the fourth most depreciated currency against the US dollar. Only the Argentine peso, Brazilian real, and Turkish lira fared worse.
The peso’s value dropped by 18.27% to 20.0342 pesos per dollar from December 29, 2023, to December 20, 2024. Political and economic events significantly impacted the peso’s performance throughout the year.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s election as Mexico’s first female president stirred controversy with her party’s proposed reforms. The second half of 2024 proved particularly challenging for Mexico’s economy.
Substantial outflows of hot money and foreign investors’ withdrawals marked this period. Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States further contributed to the peso’s devaluation.
These factors increased risk perception in emerging markets, prompting investors to seek refuge in more stable economies. The peso‘s exchange rate experienced high volatility and significant depreciation.
Mexican Peso Faces Uncertainty
In the first half of the year, before the Mexican elections, the exchange rate averaged around 16.9 pesos per dollar. However, post-election results and Trump’s victory led to increased volatility and a cumulative depreciation of about 20% for the year.
Experts predict continued volatility for the Mexican currency at the start of 2025. They warn of heightened fluctuations, especially around January 20 when Trump takes office.
Investors will closely monitor potential tariffs. The Chicago Mercado de Futuros (CME) reflects diminished confidence in the peso. Bets against the Mexican currency grew by 83.35% during 2024.
Currently, there are 14,600 contracts in favor of the peso, down from 87,700 at the beginning of the year. Several factors work against the peso’s stability.
These include expectations of interest rate cuts in Mexico and the US, and anticipated rate increases in Japan. Global risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts and China’s economic slowdown also play a role.
Mexico-specific risk factors further compound the peso’s challenges. As 2025 approaches, the Mexican peso faces an uncertain future amidst a complex global economic landscape.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. How we use AI · Report an error