Lula da Silva with 52% of voting intentions and 48% for Bolsonaro, says PoderData

PoderData’s poll, conducted Oct. 16-18, 2022, shows former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, left) with 52% of the valid votes in the 2nd round of the battle for the presidency of the Republic against 48% for President Jair Bolsonaro (PL, right).

The odds consider the valid votes, that is, the votes given to any candidate, excluding the white and invalid ballots.

Thus, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will announce the results on the night of the second round of voting on Sunday, Oct; 30.

The scenario was frozen for fourteen days.

In the Oct. 3-5 and 9-11 rounds, the two candidates obtained identical scores as they do now.

PoderData surveyed 5,000 people in this round. The poll’s margin of error is 1.5 percentage points, up or down.

Regarding total voters, the socialist has 48% of voting intentions, and the current chief executive has 44%.

5% of voters intend to vote blank or void, and 3% said they did not know.

STRATIFICATION

In stratification by region, the PT leads in the Northeast with 65% of valid votes, compared to Bolsonaro’s 35%.

Among voters in the south, the President has 55% of the valid vote compared to 45% for Lula.

In the other three regions, Bolsonaro is ahead in numbers but within the margin of error:

Southeast – Bolsonaro 52% X 48% Lula (lead: 2.2 percentage points);
Central-West – Bolsonaro 54% X 46% Lula (lead: 5.3 percentage points);
North – Bolsonaro 51% X 49% Lula (lead: 5.1 percentage points).

In performance stratified by demographic characteristics, the two candidates stand out differently.

Where Lula does better:

• among women (59% X 41% for Bolsonaro),
• among people with elementary school degrees (57% X 43%), and
• among people with family incomes of up to two salaries (56% X 44%);

Where Bolsonaro does better:

• among men (55% X 45% Lula),
• among older people aged 60 and older (53% X 47%), and
• among people who have attended secondary school but not higher education (52% X 48%).

RELIGION

The Catholic electorate has a technical tie: Lula 51% X 49% Bolsonaro. The President has 62% vs. 38% among Evangelicals for the PT.

With information from Poder360

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