LatAm and Africa Football Odds, Weekend of 7 Nov

Prediction Markets: Football

Palmeiras are close to a place in the final of the Copa do Brasil, Brazil’s national cup, and traders on Polymarket, a prediction exchange, price them at 56% to win the whole cup. They lead Vasco 1–0 from the first leg, and the second leg is on Sunday 8 November at Vasco’s São Januário stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

This is a big weekend for Brazilian cups and the last full one in Mexico’s regular season, and the markets show where traders see the trophies going. For readers in the United States, Mexican and Brazilian clubs draw some of the biggest American followings in football.

What Prediction Markets Say

A price of 56% means a contract that pays US$1 if Palmeiras win the cup costs about 56 US cents. Prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by The Rio Times, and they can move quickly.

Polymarket volume is in US dollars, and the prices in one market can add up to a little more than 100% because each outcome is quoted separately. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), had no football market above our minimum when we checked.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

This Weekend’s Matches

None of this weekend’s games had a match-winner market that met our minimum of US$10,000 traded when we checked at 5:30 am ET. The matches below are listed for context, without match prices.

Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio, Copa do Brasil

Saturday 7 November, 18:00 in Brasília (4:00 pm ET), at the Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte, in the second leg of a semifinal. Grêmio, from Porto Alegre, won the first leg 2–0.

Atlético Mineiro, one of Brazil’s biggest clubs, need a three-goal win to go through on aggregate. Polymarket’s cup market gives Grêmio 22.5% and Atlético Mineiro 12.5% to lift the trophy.

Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras, Copa do Brasil

Sunday 8 November, 17:00 in Brasília (3:00 pm ET), at São Januário, Vasco’s stadium in Rio de Janeiro. Palmeiras won the first leg 1–0 at home through a goal from the midfielder Mauricio.

Vasco da Gama, a historic Rio club, sit 13th in the league on 41 points and are four points above the relegation zone. Polymarket gives them 13% to win the cup.

The two winners meet in a single-match final on Sunday 6 December.

Liga MX, matchday 16

Liga MX is Mexico’s top league, and its Apertura regular season has two rounds left. Two of the leaders play away: América visit Pumas on Saturday evening, around 9:00 pm in Mexico City (about 10:00 pm ET; some listings say 9:10), and Guadalajara, known as Chivas, visit León on Sunday evening.

Before the round, América, Chivas and Cruz Azul, three of Mexico’s biggest clubs, were level on 29 points. Cruz Azul visit Tigres on Saturday, and Toluca host Monterrey on Saturday evening.

Latin America Title Races

Brazil: Flamengo 81%, Palmeiras 20%

Polymarket’s Série A winner market, with US$56,812 traded, has Flamengo at 81% and Palmeiras at 20%. Flamengo were at 58.5% in our snapshot of 28 October.

The table explains it. Flamengo lead with 76 points from 34 games, while Palmeiras, after a 6–1 win over Remo on Thursday, have 73.

Cruzeiro are third on 60 points, so this is a two-horse race, with four rounds left for both leaders.

At the bottom, Polymarket prices Chapecoense at 98.9% and Remo at 97.9% to be relegated, which matches the table: they have 21 and 29 points. The last two of the four relegation places are tight, with Corinthians and Grêmio on 37 points and Internacional and Vitória on 38, and the market prices for them trade thinly.

Copa Libertadores: Palmeiras 64.5%, Estudiantes 32.9%

The Copa Libertadores is South America’s biggest club cup, and its final is a single match on Saturday 28 November at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo, Uruguay, at 17:00 local time (3:00 pm ET). Palmeiras face Estudiantes de La Plata of Argentina, a rematch of the 1968 final.

Polymarket, with US$39,556 traded, gives Palmeiras 64.5% and Estudiantes 32.9%. Estudiantes were at 28.3% on 28 October.

Copa Sudamericana: Boca 52.5%, Atlético Mineiro 48.5%

The Sudamericana, South America’s second-tier club cup, is a coin flip. Boca Juniors of Buenos Aires meet Atlético Mineiro on Saturday 21 November at the Estadio Metropolitano in Barranquilla, Colombia.

Polymarket, with US$20,343 traded, has Boca at 52.5% and Atlético Mineiro at 48.5%. Boca were at 46.5% on 28 October.

Mexico: América 24.5% for the Apertura

Polymarket’s Liga MX Apertura champion market, with US$133,020 traded, has América at 24.5%, Guadalajara at 20.5%, Cruz Azul at 16% and Toluca at 14.1%. América were at 27.5% on 28 October, and Guadalajara at 18%.

Monterrey are at 6.8% and Atlas at 6.1%. The Apertura playoffs, called the Liguilla, follow the regular season.

Colombia and Bolivia

In Colombia’s Primera A, Polymarket prices Boyacá Chicó at 96% and Jaguares at 86% to be relegated in 2026, on US$27,846 traded.

In Bolivia’s top flight, Real Tomayapo are at 58%, with Vinto and GV San José both at 50.5% and ABB at 49.8%, on US$17,273 traded. More than one club goes down in each league, so these prices do not add up to 100%.

Africa

The Africa Cup of Nations 2027, Africa’s national-team championship, is co-hosted by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, according to the Confederation of African Football (CAF). The opening match is on Saturday 19 June 2027 and the final on Saturday 17 July 2027.

No qualifiers are played this weekend. Matchdays three and four run from Monday 9 to Tuesday 17 November, according to CAF.

Polymarket’s tournament winner market, with US$19,974 traded, has Morocco at 34%, Senegal at 18.8%, Cape Verde at 10.8%, Algeria at 10.1%, Ivory Coast at 9.2% and Egypt at 7.1%. Morocco were at 32.5% on 28 October.

The biggest swings are in the qualifying groups. In Group H, Uganda, one of the co-hosts, have risen from 29.1% to 38.9% to win the group, while Tunisia are at 55%.

In Group F, Benin have fallen from 30.3% to 19.2%, with Burkina Faso at 55%. In Group K, Rwanda have jumped from 20.2% to 30.6%, with Mali at 62%, down from 68%.

Ivory Coast are at 68% in Group C, down from 76.5%, and Nigeria are at 54.5% in Group L, down from 62%. Egypt are 67% in Group B, South Africa 66.5% in Group D and Cameroon 83.5% in Group G.

Our regular odds pages are in the Latin America odds hub and the Africa odds hub. Results and fixtures are in the Latin America Sports Daily for Friday, November 6, 2026.

For the qualifiers, see our guide Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Resumes, and for the cup semifinals Brazil Cup Semifinal Needs a Three-Goal Win.

What It Means for US Readers

These Polymarket prices show how traders value clubs that many American fans follow, especially Mexican and Brazilian ones. The 2026 World Cup was played in the United States, Mexico and Canada, and Liga MX and Major League Soccer (MLS, the top US league) clubs meet each summer in the Leagues Cup.

Treat the numbers as a snapshot. A 56% price for Palmeiras still means they miss out about four times in ten.

What Is Not Known

Injuries, suspensions and line-ups for the cup second legs and the Liga MX games are not yet public. Weather and late kickoff changes can also move prices.

Kickoff times come from league and press schedules and can change, and the Sudamericana final kicks off at 17:30 in Barranquilla (5:30 pm ET), according to Conmebol, South America’s football body. Many season markets have only a few thousand dollars traded, so their prices are rough guides, and we will refresh them next Friday.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who do prediction markets favour in the Copa do Brasil?

Polymarket gives Palmeiras 56%, Grêmio 22.5%, Vasco 13% and Atlético Mineiro 12.5%. Palmeiras and Grêmio lead their semifinals after the first legs, and the final is on Sunday 6 December.

Who do prediction markets favour in the Libertadores final?

Polymarket gives Palmeiras 64.5% and Estudiantes de La Plata 32.9%. The single match is on Saturday 28 November at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.

Who is favourite to win the Brazilian Série A?

Flamengo, at 81% on Polymarket against 20% for Palmeiras. Flamengo lead the table with 76 points to 73, with four rounds left.

When do the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers resume?

Matchdays three and four run from 9 to 17 November 2026, according to CAF. The tournament in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda opens on 19 June 2027.

Are these predictions or bets?

They are prices set by real-money traders, not forecasts by The Rio Times. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and we never link to betting sites or give tips.